NFL betting primer: High-stakes NFC East clash kicks off Week 11

Crunch time is approaching for many NFL teams. The playoffs will be here before we know it, and wins this week - especially within the division - could be the difference between clinching a wild-card spot or starting the offseason early.

Let's dive into this week's loaded slate.

Jump to: WAS @ PHI | BAL @ PIT | GB @ CHI | SEA @ SF | KC @ BUF | CIN @ LAC

Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football delivers again, opening Week 11 with a clash for NFC East supremacy. The Commanders visit the Eagles, and the winner will take the division lead with an eighth victory this season.

Case for the Commanders

• The Commanders are 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season, whereas the Eagles are 0-3 at home.
• Washington has the NFL's best cover rate (77.8%) and is 2-0 ATS after a loss.
• These teams are neck and neck in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), but this spread suggests the Eagles are a better team.

Case for the Eagles

• The Eagles have won five straight games since their Week 5 bye, three of those by 20 or more points.
• Philly has struggled ATS this season but has covered in three of its last four.
• The home team nearly always has an edge when both squads are on a short week.

X-factors

• The Steelers kept Jayden Daniels in check last week, holding him to under 20 yards rushing (5 to be exact) for the first time this season. The Eagles have yet to face a dual-threat quarterback of Daniels' caliber, so his impact on the ground could be the deciding factor. Daniels' rushing prop is set at 44.5 yards.
• Washington's defense allows 142.1 rushing yards per game (fifth most) while the Eagles' ground attack is the NFL's most dangerous. If the front seven can't slow down Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, the Commanders may have no chance of keeping this one close.

Best bet - Commanders +4

The Eagles may have been the play at 2.5-point favorites, but there's too much value in the Commanders getting more than a field goal. These teams are evenly matched, but the Eagles haven't played against a quarterback with Daniels' rushing ability. Take the points in what should be a tightly contested divisional matchup.

Best prop - Terry McLaurin over 4.5 receptions (-135)

McLaurin has five or more catches in six of his past nine games (66.7% cover rate), but these odds imply a 57.4% probability. He's by far Daniels' No. 1 option, leading Commanders wide receivers in targets, and he's only seen fewer than six targets twice this season.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate

Rivalry week continues with a classic AFC North clash. The 7-3 Ravens are in Pittsburgh to take on the surprising 7-2 Steelers with the division lead on the line. Will Russell Wilson's magic continue against MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, or will the Ravens remind everyone they're the top dogs in the division?

Case for the Ravens

• The Ravens are the league's second-best team based on DVOA compared to the Steelers in 13th.
• Baltimore has quality wins over the Bengals (twice), Bills, Commanders, and Buccaneers. The Steelers' most impressive win may have been last week's one-point victory over the Commanders.

Case for the Steelers

• The Steelers are 7-2 ATS this season (77.8% cover rate) and 3-0 as underdogs.
• Betting on Pittsburgh when it's an underdog has been profitable under Mike Tomlin. The team is 60-35-5 when getting points and an outstanding 19-6-3 ATS as a home underdog since 2007.

X-factors

• Tomlin looks like a genius for switching to Wilson despite Justin Fields' early-season wins. Wilson has turned back the clock and now gets to tee off on the Ravens' weak secondary. He's thrown for six touchdowns and is averaging 245.7 yards through three games. The Ravens concede a league-high 294.9 yards through the air. Wilson's passing yard prop is 224.5.
• Jackson is only 1-3 in his career against the Steelers with a passer rating below 70. He's playing at an MVP level for his second straight season and will need to maintain that play against a tough Steelers defense.

Best bet - Steelers +3

Siding with the Steelers as a home underdog is never a bad idea. Pittsburgh was able to contain Daniels last week and may implement a similar strategy against Jackson. Plus, Wilson should be able to score enough points to keep this game close even if Jackson and Co. can't be slowed down.

Best prop - Russell Wilson over 224.5 passing yards

The Ravens have only held opposing quarterbacks to under 224.5 yards twice this season (Bo Nix in Week 9 and Josh Allen in Week 4). They've been torched through the air by Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew, and twice by Joe Burrow. Wilson should have no issue throwing for at least 225 yards, which is a surprisingly low total.

The Bears - losers of three straight - host the Packers in another classic matchup, although the history of this rivalry is rather lopsided. Chicago fired its offensive coordinator Tuesday, looking for answers for an offense averaging only 4.3 yards per play, the second fewest in the league.

Case for the Packers

• The Packers are coming off their bye and are 14-10 with the rest advantage since hiring Matt LaFleur in 2019. On the flip side, the Bears are the worst team at 2-9 with the rest disadvantage over that same span.
• The Bears haven't found the end zone in their last two games and only scored a combined 27 points over their last three.

Case for the Bears

• The firing of Shane Waldron could spark the Bears' stagnant offense.
• Chicago is 3-1 ATS at home this season.
• For all of their flaws, the Bears' defense can keep them in contests. Three games ago, the defense held the Commanders' high-octane offense to only 18 points.

X-factors

• Green Bay's defense has the NFL's fourth-highest hurry rate (10.5%), while Caleb Williams has been hurried the sixth most of any quarterback and gets pressured (hurries, knockdowns, sacks) in 25.3% of all dropbacks (sixth most).

Best bet - Bears +6

It may not feel great, but taking the six points with the Bears at home is the play. Chicago's offense can't be any worse than it has been, and perhaps a new play-caller can help Williams succeed behind a struggling offensive line.

Best prop - Caleb Williams over 18.5 completions

Expect the Bears' new offensive coordinator to keep the game plan simple for Williams, giving his rookie quarterback plenty of easy throws to take pressure off a weak offensive line. The Bears have weapons that excel in short yardage - DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and D'Andre Swift - to help Williams surpass 18.5 completions with ease, a total he's gone over in three of his past five games.

Sunday 4 p.m. ET slate

It's a Week 6 rematch between two NFC West opponents. The 49ers closed as 3.5-point favorites before beating the Seahawks 36-24 five weeks ago in Seattle. Now, they're 6.5-point favorites at home with Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup.

Case for the Seahawks

• The Seahawks are coming off their bye, which came at the perfect time following two straight losses and allowed DK Metcalf to get healthy.

Case for the 49ers

• The Seahawks are 2-6-1 ATS this season, suggesting they're one of the more overrated teams in the league.
• The closing line from Week 6 suggests the 49ers should have been 7- or 7.5-point favorites had the game been in San Francisco. Now the 49ers are getting a slight - but valuable - discount with McCaffrey back in the lineup.

X-factors

• Isaac Guerendo and Jordan Mason ran wild on the Seahawks in their first meeting, combining for 172 yards on only 19 carries. Seattle is conceding the seventh-most rushing yards (139.4) per game. McCaffrey could be in for a huge day on the ground.
• The Seahawks are one of the league's pass-happiest teams, calling pass plays 64.86% of the time. Geno Smith averages 284.4 pass yards per game and has a pass-yard prop of 249.5. The weaker part of the 49ers' solid defense is its secondary.

Best bet - 49ers (-6.5)

The 49ers haven't played their best football this season, squeaking out games to a 5-4 record. But the importance of McCaffrey's return to the offense cannot be understated and will provide the 49ers with the boost they need in the second half of the season. This spread would be over a touchdown had it not been for three missed field goals from Jake Moody last week in Tampa Bay.

The undefeated Chiefs are in Buffalo to take on the AFC East-leading Bills in the week's biggest game. Josh Allen is 3-1 against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season and is favored to earn a fourth win against his fellow MVP candidate. Are we in for another epic duel between two of the best quarterbacks?

Case for the Chiefs

• Mahomes is 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
• Need we say more?

Case for the Bills

• Allen has a winning record against Mahomes in the regular season.
• Buffalo is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
• One can argue this game means much more to Buffalo than Kansas City, and the Chiefs may save their best effort for when these teams meet again in the playoffs.

X-factors

• The Bills are without Keon Coleman and could be missing both Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid. Allen will need help in the passing game since the Chiefs have one of the league's best rush defenses, allowing only 83.2 yards per contest (third fewest).
• From a statistical standpoint, this is Mahomes' worst season, yet the Chiefs remain undefeated. That's scary for the rest of the league. However, Mahomes will have to bring his A-game to knock off the Bills on the road.

Best bet - Chiefs (+2.5)

It's certainly possible for the Bills to improve Allen's regular-season record against Mahomes while the Chiefs cover the spread - that's the beauty of backing the underdog. It's rarely wise to bet against Mahomes getting points, and this week is no different.

Sunday Night Football

An intriguing AFC matchup of playoff hopefuls caps this week's amazing slate. Joe Burrow takes his Bengals to L.A. to face Justin Herbert's Chargers in what's shaping up to be a must-win game for 4-6 Cincinnati.

Case for the Bengals

• The Bengals are desperate after a tough loss to the division rival Ravens last Thursday.
• Cincinnati has the slight rest advantage and should welcome Tee Higgins back to its offense.
• The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road this season.

Case for the Chargers

• This line suggests these two teams are evenly matched, but DVOA has the Chargers (10th) ranked well ahead of the Bengals (16th).
• They are 3-1 ATS at SoFi Stadium and 6-1 ATS as favorites this season.
• They've outscored their opponents 80-35 over their last three games.

X-factors

• Ja'Marr Chase is coming off a 264-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Ravens. He leads the NFL in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. The Chargers limit opposing offenses to 191.6 passing yards per contest (ninth fewest) but have given up big games to recent No. 1 receivers (Calvin Ridley, Cedric Tillman, and Chris Olave).
• The Chargers limit teams to the lowest touchdown-per-drive rate at 12.1%. Cincinnati averages 3.3 touchdowns per game, the fourth-highest average. Whichever strength wins this battle will win the contest.

Best bet - Chargers -1.5

The Chargers are the better team and are only being asked to win by two points at home. Jim Harbaugh has Herbert playing incredibly well, and his defense is one of the league's best. Even if the Chargers' defense can't completely slow down Burrow and Co., Herbert should be able to put enough points on the board to cover.