Look, not every Monday night game can have the makings of an instant classic, which is the case for the Browns-Broncos showdown closing out Week 13.
The Browns take their 3-8 record on the road to visit the surprising 7-5 Broncos, led by rookie Bo Nix, the second-favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year behind Jayden Daniels.
Denver is on track for its first playoff berth since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2016. With a victory at home, the Broncos can move two games ahead of the Colts for the final wild-card spot.
Weather can always be a factor in December in the Mile High City. But there's no snow in the forecast for Monday's game, unfortunately for fans looking for added excitement and for Jameis Winston, who thrived in wintery conditions in Cleveland's win over the Steelers last week.
Key trends
- The Broncos are 9-3 Against The Spread (ATS), tied for the league's best mark, and 5-0 ATS as favorites. However, they're only 3-2 ATS at home.
- The Browns are 4-7 ATS, but all four of their covers were as underdogs.
- The over has hit in three of the last four Browns games and six of the previous eight Broncos games.
- Winston is 2-2 ATS as the Browns' starter.
Insights
| Spread splits | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|
| Browns | 27.92% | 29.33% |
| Broncos | 72.08% | 70.67% |
Bettors are keen to back the Broncos to cover the spread, currently sitting at six points in Denver's favor. Over 70% of the bets and handle (money wagered) have come in on the Broncos at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet.
Best bet - Browns +6
We'll go against the percentages and take the Browns and the points. The Browns are playing carefree football at the moment and turned in a great effort against the division-rival Steelers last week. They have a substantial rest advantage as well, with 10 days off between games compared to Denver's seven.
The Broncos have won by 10 or more points in back-to-back games, but six points is still a decently sized margin to cover. The Broncos also have a bye next week and may have their foot off the gas pedal a touch as they look forward to their time off.
Players to watch
Bo Nix - Over 4.5 rushing attempts (-125)
Nix ran a ton at the beginning of the season, turning in only one game with fewer than five rushing attempts in his first nine contests. However, he's had three or fewer rush attempts in his last three games, largely because he didn't need to while the Broncos were winning big.
But if we expect the Browns to keep the game close, it's safe to assume Nix will need to make plays with his legs. Additionally, the Browns' defense has the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL, meaning Nix may not have much time to survey all of his options and will be forced to scramble.
Jameis Winston - Under 0.5 interceptions (+125)
Let's get wild on Monday, shall we? Betting under interceptions for Wintson is a scary proposition ... but hear us out. Winston is surprisingly good against the blitz, which the Broncos call 33.3% of the time. The Browns QB has a 122.2 passer rating and a 0.32 Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback against the blitz. His passer rating is third in the league, and he's tied with Lamar Jackson in EPA/dropback.
Winston has four interceptions this season, but three of those came against the Chargers, a team that only blitzes 21.8% of the time and generates pressure at the fifth-lowest rate.
Devaughn Vele - Over 3.5 receptions (+100)
The 26-year-old rookie (you read that correctly) is quietly having a solid first season. Vele's averaging four catches a game and has surpassed 3.5 total grabs in three straight contests. Continuing to haul in four Nix passes isn't a big ask at even money, especially after Vele saw nine targets last week.
