MNF preview: Vikings, Falcons heavy favorites in doubleheader

We have a Monday night doubleheader featuring two similar games, with both highlighting teams fighting for playoff positioning and taking on clubs already eliminated from postseason contention.

Let's get to it.

The Bears are in Minnesota for an NFC North contest against the Vikings. Minnesota can match the division-leading Lions at 12-2 with a home victory, but Chicago was eliminated from playoff contention last week.

Case for the Bears

• The Bears lost to the Vikings by three at home three weeks ago as 2.5-point underdogs.
• The only argument you can make for Chicago is that seven is a lot of points to get in a division matchup.

Case for the Vikings

• The Vikings rank sixth in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), while the Bears are 25th.
• Minnesota's defense allows the league's fewest points and generates pressure on 25.8% of opponents' dropbacks. Chicago allows the most sacks on a per-game basis.

Key trends

• The Vikings are 8-4-1 against the spread (ATS) and 4-2 at home.
• The Bears are 6-5-2 ATS but 1-4-1 on the road.
• The under has hit in five of the past seven Bears games and four of the previous six Vikings contests.

Pick: Vikings -7

The Vikings are playing too well and have too much to play for, especially compared to the Bears. Minnesota's defense will be a problem for Caleb Williams, who was sacked seven times last week and has taken an average of 5.5 sacks over his past six starts.

Players to watch

Aaron Jones - Over 69.5 rushing yards

The Bears' defense allows 4.8 yards per carry (second most) and 134.8 rushing yards per game (sixth most). Aaron Jones ran for 106 yards in the last meeting with Chicago and has gone over 69.5 yards in seven of the 10 games he received 10 or more carries.

Jordan Addison - Over 59.5 receiving yards

The Bears made it a point to shut down Justin Jefferson last time, but they let Jordan Addison go off. Addison had eight catches for 162 yards when these teams played in Week 12, and he surpassed 59.5 yards receiving in three of his past four games.

Kirk Cousins and the Falcons are in Las Vegas for the second leg of Monday's doubleheader. Atlanta is a loser of four straight, but a tilt against the Raiders should end its skid. Las Vegas is in the running for the first overall pick at 2-11 and is starting former Falcon Desmond Ridder.

Case for the Falcons

• The Falcons are desperate and need a big effort from both sides of the ball in a must-win game to keep pace with the division-leading Buccaneers.

Case for the Raiders

• Backing home underdogs can be a viable strategy, but this is the Raiders with Ridder under center.

Key trends

• Both teams are 5-8 ATS this season, and neither has a one-sided ATS record as the home or away team.
• The under has hit in four of the past five Falcons games and back-to-back Raiders contests.

Pick: Falcons -6

While it may be a revenge game for Ridder, taking Las Vegas in any scenario is tough. Sure, Cousins has struggled recently, but the Raiders won't have Maxx Crosby, and they could barely generate pressure when he was in the lineup. The Falcons' offense can be explosive if Cousins plays decently, which isn't a big ask against a weak defense giving up the second most points per game.

Players to watch

Bijan Robinson - Over 79.5 rushing yards (-135)

The Falcons are big favorites and should control the matchup from start to finish. Bijan Robison will be relied upon to wear down the Raiders' defense and could easily see 20 carries. Robison has surpassed 79.5 rushing yards in six of his past eight games and all four contests in which he rushed 20 or more times.

Drake London - Over 69.5 receiving yards (+105)

Robinson should be effective on the ground, meaning Cousins will have the opportunity to use play-action. Drake London should be a beneficiary. He's gone over 69.5 receiving yards in three of his past four games and is a threat to strike deep at any moment.