TNF betting preview: Broncos, Chargers meet in crucial AFC West clash

An AFC West clash between the Broncos and Chargers kicks off Week 16, a game with playoff implications. Both teams are likely to make the postseason - each team's odds on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet imply a probability of over 90% - but both teams are also jockeying for the final wild-card spot. Whoever finishes as the 7-seed is likely heading to Buffalo during the wild-card round.

Case for the Broncos

• The Broncos are on a four-game winning streak in which they're scoring an average of 34.75 points. Pairing that offensive output with one of the league's best defenses at preventing points (17.6 points against per game) is a scary combo.
• Bo Nix is no longer playing like a rookie, as he was during these two teams' first meeting. Nix had a quarterback rating of over 90 in four of his past seven games and threw for 15 touchdowns over that stretch.
• The Broncos are the better team per defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).

Case for the Chargers

• The Chargers already beat the Broncos 23-16 this season when they were 2.5-point favorites on the road. They are now being asked to cover a similar spread at home.
• They were embarrassed at home against the Buccaneers. You can expect a well-coached Jim Harbaugh team to rebound.
• The Chargers' defense is equally as impressive as the Broncos', holding opponents to an identical 17.6 points per game.

Key trends

• Denver is a league-best 11-3 against the spread (ATS) this season and has covered five straight.
• The Chargers are a respectable 9-5 ATS and 7-2 as favorites.
• The Broncos are 3-1 ATS against divisional opponents, while the Chargers are only 1-3.

Pick: Chargers -3

There isn't much separating these two teams, especially on the defensive side of the ball. However, it's best to trust the team with the better quarterback on a short week with limited preparation. As good as Nix has been this season, the rookie isn't yet in the same tier as Justin Herbert, making the Chargers the team to back. Additionally, Harbaugh already beat the Broncos this season.

Players to watch

Ladd McConkey - Over 69.5 receiving yards (+105)

For as good as the Broncos are on defense, they've been susceptible through the air in recent games. They got shredded by Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and Jakobi Meyers in two of their past three games.

Ladd McConkey went over 69.5 yards receiving in four of his past seven games, and 52 yards was his lowest total over that stretch. He's a dependable option for Herbert and will avoid Broncos shut-down corner Patrick Surtain II since he runs most of his routes (66.6%) out of the slot.

Courtland Sutton - Over 5.5 receptions (+100)

Courtland Sutton has become Nix's favorite target. He caught six or more passes in seven of his last eight games and has seen eight or more targets in seven straight contests, helping him rank ninth in targets in the NFL. Nix must rely heavily on Sutton to move the ball against a stingy Chargers defense, making six catches easily attainable with eight or more passes likely coming his way.