Week 16 betting preview: Can Steelers slow Lamar for a 2nd time?

It's officially that time of year: there are now Saturday games in the NFL. Two intriguing contests are scheduled this week - and the same four teams are also slated to play on Christmas Day in Week 17.

Let's get to it.

Saturday 1 p.m. ET

The Texans are in Kansas City for a meeting with the Chiefs and, seemingly, a healthy Patrick Mahomes. The two-time MVP logged a full practice on Wednesday, flipping the line six points in the Chiefs' direction after the Texans were favored by three points earlier in the week.

Case for the Texans

• The Chiefs have struggled to cover spreads of late and may want to protect a slightly banged-up Mahomes. They may not show the Texans their full assortment of plays, meaning this might not be the same Chiefs team that's lucked its way to a 13-1 record.
• Their offensive issues are well documented, but the Texans' defense has stepped up and is a big reason for their 9-5 record. It allows the third-fewest yards per play (4.9) and gives up only 21.4 points per contest.

Case for the Chiefs

• There's a chance Mahomes is 100% healthy and this line hasn't adjusted enough.
• This is the time of year when Kansas City begins to play its best football: Since 2018, Mahomes and Co. are 21-6 in December.

Key trends

• The Chiefs are only 6-8 against the spread (ATS) despite having only one loss. They're also 2-5 at Arrowhead Stadium.
• The Texans aren't much better ATS at 6-6-2.
• Kansas City has only covered one of its past eight games.
• The under has hit in three straight Chiefs games and six of the past eight Texans games.

Pick: Texans +3.5

We'll take the Texans and the points, especially now that the line has moved and the Chiefs have to cover more than a field goal. Houston hasn't met expectations this season, and C.J. Stroud is going through a sophomore slump. But the Texans' defense is good and, if Mahomes is limited even the slightest bit, there's value in taking the underdog.

Saturday 4:30 p.m.

A classic rivalry caps Saturday's two-game slate as the Steelers travel to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson's Ravens. The Steelers have a one-game edge for the division lead, so this result could be the difference between the AFC North title and a wild-card spot.

Case for the Steelers

• The Steelers won the first meeting between these two teams in a defensive battle. Mike Tomlin's side held Jackson's powerful offense to only 16 points, its lowest of the season.
• A 6.5-point spread is big for a divisional matchup between two tough teams who play close games. Eight of their past 11 contests have been decided by five points or fewer.

Case for the Ravens

• The Ravens are the better team, but their defense can sometimes let them down. Baltimore's chances increase with George Pickens out for a third consecutive game, as he's become a difference-maker for the Russell Wilson-led offense.

Key trends

• Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS this season, the league's second-best record. It's also 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
• The Ravens are 7-6-1 ATS and only 2-3-1 at home.
• Nine of their previous 10 meetings have ended with fewer than 40 points scored and only once has a team reached 20 points in a game over that span.

Pick: Steelers +6.5

History tells us this game will be tight, so we'll side with the Steelers and the points. Pittsburgh is outmatched on the offensive side of the ball, but its defense could be the deciding factor. T.J. Watt's status was unclear earlier in the week, but he will play - and he can disrupt the Ravens' backfield.

However, under 45.5 may be the best play considering how low-scoring previous meetings have been.

Sunday 1 p.m.

The Commanders host the Eagles in another tilt of division rivals. The Eagles moved up to second favorite to win the Super Bowl behind only the Bills, while the 9-5 Commanders have yet to clinch a playoff berth.

Case for the Eagles

• Philly won the first meeting 26-18 and Saquon Barkley dominated on the ground with 146 yards in the game. It'll be another long day for the Commanders if they can't slow the Eagles' lethal rushing attack.

Case for the Commanders

• Washington's offense is one of the few in the league that can keep up with the Eagles. It's averaging 28.3 points per game, the sixth-most in the league. Philadelphia averages 26.4.
• The Commanders were 4.5-point underdogs in their last matchup, suggesting there's value in backing them at home while getting 3.5 points.

Key trends

• The Eagles are 9-5 ATS while the Commanders are 8-5-1.
• Washington is 5-2 ATS at home and the Eagles are 5-1 on the road. One of these team's impressive ATS records will take a hit this week.
• The over is only 5-9 in Eagles games because their defense allows just 17.6 points per game.

Pick: Commanders +3.5

The Commanders getting 3.5 points is too valuable to pass up in this scenario. The Eagles have the division locked up and are in play for the NFC's No.1 seed, but Jayden Daniels' side needs a win to secure a playoff spot. Expect a big effort from the burgundy and gold to keep this game within a field goal.

Sunday 4:05 p.m.

The Seahawks welcome the Vikings to the Pacific Northwest for a potential playoff preview. Minnesota has its spot secured but Seattle is fighting for the NFC West crown and needs a victory to keep pace with the Rams.

Case for the Vikings

• The Vikings are one of the league's best teams at 12-2 and only need to cover three points over a mediocre Seahawks side led by Geno Smith, who injured his knee last week and could be limited.
• Seattle was in a similar spot last week, getting 2.5 points at home against the Packers. The Seahawks lost 30-13.

Case for the Seahawks

• The Seahawks cannot afford a loss with only three games remaining.
• Before last week, Seattle's defense gave up an average of 15.5 points in its previous four outings. It needs a big performance to have any chance.

Key trends

• The Vikings are 9-4-1 ATS but only 3-2-1 on the road.
• The Seahawks are 6-7-1 ATS and 2-6 at home. They may no longer have a strong home-field advantage like they once did.
• The Vikings have won seven straight but only covered in four of them.

Pick: Vikings -3

The Vikings may be the most under-the-radar 12-2 team of all time. While everyone is focusing on the Lions and Eagles in the NFC, Minnesota has quietly put together a fantastic season and could snag the conference's top seed.

Seattle was no match for the Packers last week, and the Vikings present a similar test. Expect a repeat performance with Minnesota dominating on both sides of the ball.

Sunday Night Football

The Sunday Nighter features the Buccaneers and Cowboys, with only Tampa Bay playing for anything at this point. The Bucs can extend their NFC South lead while Dallas fans would probably rather see the Cowboys lose to improve their draft stock.

Case for the Buccaneers

• The Bucs went to SoFi Stadium last week and dismantled a good Chargers team. They've won four straight following their bye and should put together another strong effort against the Cowboys.

Case for the Cowboys

• Playing for pride can also make a team dangerous, which is the only thing going for the Cowboys right now.

Key trends

• The Bucs are 9-5 ATS and have covered five of their past six games. They're also 5-2 on the road.
• Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 5-9 ATS and a measly 1-6 at "Jerry World."

Pick: Buccaneers -4

We picked against the Buccanneers last week and they proved us wrong. To avoid the same mistake twice, we'll side with the Bucs on the road against a far inferior opponent.

Tampa was impressive on both sides of the ball last week, scoring 40 on a stingy Chargers defense and limiting Justin Herbert to only 17 points. Baker Mayfield has the Bucs' offense firing on all cylinders, and it's unlikely Cooper Rush will be able to keep up.