NFL betting preview: Chiefs, Ravens road favorites on Christmas Day

The NFL is the gift that keeps on giving. This time, it's delivering two presents to football fans with a two-game slate on Christmas Day.

Let's get to it.

The Chiefs (14-1) head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (10-5) in the first game on Christmas. Patrick Mahomes was reportedly dealing with a high-ankle sprain Saturday but looked good in the Chiefs' victory over the Texans. Meanwhile, the Steelers were throttled by the Ravens in a key divisional matchup the same day.

Case for the Chiefs

• The Chiefs learned how to cover! They've covered the spread in back-to-back contests after failing to cover for seven consecutive games.
• Mahomes looked completely healthy against the Texans. He rushed five times for 33 yards and a touchdown while extending plays regularly in typical Mahomes-like fashion.

Case for the Steelers

• Wide receiver George Pickens returns to the lineup, providing a major boost to Pittsburgh's offense.
• The Steelers suffered two tough losses on the road to the Eagles and Ravens. Returning home should give this reeling squad a boost.

Key trends

• The Steelers are 10-5 against the spread (ATS) this season, tied for the third-best record in the league. They are also 5-1 at home.
• The Chiefs are 7-8 ATS overall and 4-3 on the road.
• Pittsburgh is 20-6-3 as a home underdog since Mike Tomlin was hired in 2007.

Pick: Steelers +2.5

This line opened with the Chiefs as 5.5-point favorites but has moved drastically in the Steelers' favor. Hats off to you if you snagged the Steelers at their opening price, but we'll have to settle for 2.5 points in this scenario.

The Chiefs are playing great but this seems like a potential letdown spot in a tough environment. We're also banking on the return of Pickens to help elevate the Steelers' offense and give Russell Wilson his deep threat back.

Additionally, backing Tomlin's side as home underdogs has been profitable for nearly two decades.

The Texans (9-6) host the Ravens (10-5) for Christmas Day's second leg, a game that will be ongoing while you're diving into a turkey leg. Despite being 10-5, the Ravens appear to be a true Super Bowl contender while the Texans might be the worst 9-6 team in the league.

Case for the Ravens

• Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP-caliber level even though he's unlikely to win the award. Asking Jackson's offense to cover only 4.5 points is not a big request.
• Baltimore's secondary is its weakest link but the Texans' passing attack might not be capable of exploiting it. Houston lost receiver Tank Dell for the season Saturday to another devastating injury late in the year.

Case for the Texans

• The Texans are winning games, but it hasn't been pretty. They have one of the league's best defenses that could be one of the few units in the league capable of slowing down Jackson and Co.

Key trends

• The Ravens are 8-6-1 ATS and 5-3 on the road.
• The Texans are 6-7-2 ATS, 3-3-1 at home, and 2-2 as an underdog.
• Baltimore has covered three of its past four games while Houston has covered only once in its previous four contests.

Pick: Ravens -4.5

The Ravens looked unbeatable last week against Pittsburgh, scoring at will while making life tough for Wilson. The Texans' passing attack becomes very one-dimensional without Dell, and if the Steelers' defense can slow down Joe Mixon, it will have a tough time putting up enough points through the air to keep pace with the Ravens' explosive offense.