Lost season: Where do 49ers and Brock Purdy go from here?

The 2022 NFL Draft's quarterback class reads like an indictment of the talent-evaluation industry.

Kenny Pickett, selected 20th overall, lasted two seasons in Pittsburgh. The Steelers had such a dim view of his prospects that they replaced him with two guys on bargain deals.

Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, and Sam Howell were all given looks as starters, and all their teams decided they'd seen enough, releasing or trading them. Bailey Zappe and Skylar Thompson are firmly clipboard holders. Matt Corral and Chris Oladokun have each been signed and released multiple times.

And then there's Brock Purdy. The literal last man standing in that draft, Mr. Irrelevant, the 262nd pick off the board - and a Pro Bowler last year. A quarterback who led his team to the Super Bowl. The same player who, after that 12-5 season in 2023 and the deep playoff run, answered all the questions about whether someone with so little draft pedigree could be the long-term answer at the toughest position to fill for a team with championship aspirations.

Of course Brock Purdy could be that guy. He was among league leaders in most statistical categories, and even without the physical gifts of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, he still had a knack for making big plays with his arms and feet. What more could the San Francisco 49ers want? It may have been a complete fluke that they stumbled into a smaller, right-handed version of Steve Young, but they had him just the same.

Obviously it would only be a matter of time until they gave him a giant, nine-figure contract extension.

Unless, um, it wasn’t.

The 2024 season's been a disaster for the 49ers in a lot of ways. Running back Christian McCaffrey missed most of it due to injury. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk and lineman Trent Williams had lengthy contract holdouts and both ended up hurt. First-round pick Ricky Pearsall was literally shot, a bystander in a robbery attempt. Amid all this, the losses piled up, and a team that was a preseason divisional favourite will instead finish below .500 and miss the playoffs.

And the worst part may be that the season's given the 49ers reason to second-guess Purdy again.

Even as Purdy, 25, was piling up numbers last year and playing shockingly well for the last pick of the draft, there were caveats: he was in an offensive system under coach Kyle Shanahan that did a masterful job of putting receivers in open space. Those receivers - McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle - were all weapons on their own, so a good chunk of Purdy's gaudy numbers were the result of him making simple passes to open guys who were great at breaking tackles and busting big plays. If this were motor racing, the question would be simple: was Purdy an excellent driver, or did he have the fastest car?

In 2024, the car didn't just lose pace, it blew several tires and then caught on fire. Without most of those weapons for long periods, Purdy's numbers have dropped significantly. He had 31 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions in 2023, and has just 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions through 14 games this season. As if to illustrate the advantage of playing QB with weapons at one's disposal, the guy who backed Purdy up last year, Sam Darnold, is tearing it up in Minnesota (and could well take Purdy's Pro Bowl spot).

All of which sets up a fascinating question: Will the 49ers give Purdy the monster contract extension he's eligible for once San Francisco's season ends? Or will they wait and see how the final year of his hilariously cheap rookie deal (which pays him $1.1 million in 2025) goes before trying to lock him down?

There's no obvious answer. Purdy's proven to be an effective pilot of Shanahan's battleship, so if the Niners expect it to be fully operational in 2025, it makes sense to give him what would have to be the largest raise in NFL history.

But there are also plenty of recent examples of teams that paid their guy superstar money and almost immediately wondered if they blew it: Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, Tua Tagovailoa in Miami, Dak Prescott in Dallas, and (especially) Deshaun Watson in Cleveland.

NFL economics essentially demand that a QB who plays for several seasons for a contending team will eventually have to be paid a massive chunk of that team's salary cap space. The other option is to cut bait before that point and try to find someone else to do a similar job on a cheap deal. Or to have Tom Brady, who's willing to make the numbers work.

Complicating things for the 49ers is the health of so many of the weapons that Purdy used to such great effect in his first two years. Put another way: Is it wise to sign up for several years of top-dollar Purdy if guys like McCaffrey and Samuel are already past their peaks?

It's a puzzle. The known quantity with flaws, or starting over again at the game's most crucial position?

San Francisco's season will end in about a week, so it'll be able to decide soon.

Scott Stinson is a contributing writer at theScore