1 major question for each AFC wild-card game

Wild Card Weekend is upon us. A dozen teams will clash for the right to join the top-seeded Chiefs and Lions in the next round of the NFL postseason. Here are key storylines to follow in the AFC games.

Note: All times listed are Eastern.

Chargers at Texans, Saturday at 4:30 p.m.
Can C.J. Stroud rediscover his rookie form?

In Stroud's playoff debut, the Texans quarterback fired three touchdown passes on his home turf to thrash the Joe Flacco-led Browns and affirm he was the indisputable 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

A sophomore slide followed. Stroud gained 54.7 fewer yards per game in 2024 on a similar volume of attempts while passing for three fewer touchdowns and seven more interceptions. He suffered more hits, sacks, and receiver drops as his supporting cast took a beating. The overlapping injury absences of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell help explain why Stroud ranked 31st in expected points added per dropback from Weeks 6-18, per TruMedia.

Doubts plague the 10-win Texans even though they repeated as division champions while scoring just five fewer points than last season. Houston's point differential (zero) and lack of authoritative victories (two by double digits, 1-5 record against fellow playoff teams) exhibit mediocrity.

The Texans' opponent, Los Angeles, walls off the goal line. The Chargers defense allowed the NFL's fewest points (17.7 per game), touchdowns (31), entrances into the red zone (40), and red-zone TDs (18). Star QB Justin Herbert's ball security (three interceptions, 0.6% INT rate) deprived opposing teams of easy opportunities to score.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh's arrival revived L.A. With his guidance, Herbert will pursue his first career playoff win in two tries following the unforgettable 27-point collapse against the Jaguars in the 2022 wild-card round.

Stroud can inflict more misery and salvage his year by unlocking the best of Collins. The wideout finished fourth in receiving yards per game (83.8) and broke out of a brief slump in Week 18 with five catches and a touchdown grab in one quarter of work. Houston needs to stun the Chargers with explosive plays, like when Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans of the Buccaneers connected for two deep scores in L.A.'s lone lopsided loss.

Steelers at Ravens, Saturday at 8 p.m.
Can Baltimore trust Justin Tucker?

Two deep field goals that Tucker stuck through the center of the uprights in recent weeks inspired confidence that the best kicker to ever do it won't be a liability in January.

The Ravens legend endured a difficult year. His 73.3% field-goal percentage (22-for-30) ranked 30th out of 36 qualified kickers. All eight of Tucker's missed kicks came from beyond 45 yards. Seven were pulled wide to the left.

Baltimore won each of Tucker's seven perfect games in the regular season but went 1-5 when he flubbed a field goal, with all five losses coming by one possession. Tucker wasted scoring chances that could've erased three margins of defeat (one missed FG in a 26-23 loss to the Raiders, two in an 18-16 loss to the Steelers, and two in a 24-19 loss to the Eagles).

His struggles contrast the excellence of Chris Boswell. The Steelers veteran kicker's 41 makes on 44 tries spurred him to the NFL points lead with 158, eight shy of the position's single-season record. Boswell scored all 18 Pittsburgh points in a pair of close wins - including over Baltimore in November - that were facilitated by the defense's ability to get off the field.

Steelers defenders had multiple takeaways in a league-high 12 games and excelled on third down, holding opponents to the second-worst conversion rate (35.3%). But they've been manhandled throughout an ongoing four-loss skid as Pittsburgh was outscored 109-57 and outgained by 487 yards. Baltimore caught fire in the same span with four straight wins, a 135-43 edge in scoring, and a plus-740-yard differential.

Signs point to the Ravens advancing in a blowout, but the Steelers won eight of the teams' last 10 matchups by a single score. They need to turn this grudge match into a rock fight, force Tucker to cast a stone, and hope his errant aim in a big moment negates Lamar Jackson's greatness.

Broncos at Bills, Sunday at 1 p.m.
Can Denver rattle Josh Allen?

Buffalo's elimination of negative plays in 2024 was a massive achievement. The Bills paired a league-low eight giveaways with the NFL's best sack rate (2.6%, allowed a total of 14). Allen's dynamite offense topped the AFC in scoring and added the most expected points (8.87 per game) of his career, per TruMedia.

The marauding Bills defense forced the third-most turnovers (32) and tilted the field in Allen's favor. His offense enjoyed the best average starting position (own 33.4-yard line) in the NFL since 2019. He engineered quick strikes, leading a league-high 23 touchdown drives that required no more than five plays, per Stathead.

The Bills' eight straight 30-point outbursts from Weeks 7-15 tied a league record. They only lost in Allen's starts when the Ravens and Texans silenced him ahead of the hot streak and the Rams' Matthew Stafford sparkled in a 44-42 shootout.

Denver is equipped to swarm Allen. Broncos pass-rushers recorded the third-most sacks this century (63). They were the 13th unit of the Super Bowl era to field six five-sack defenders, per Stathead. Because of this signature strength, they led all defenses in EPA, forced loads of punts (4.6 per game), and surrendered fewer points (18.3 per game) than every team but the Chargers and Eagles.

The battle in the trenches and Allen's response to pressure will dictate how this matchup flows. Denver's goal offensively is to hog the ball with a pleasantly simple approach. Rookie passer Bo Nix had a 79% completion rate and a 9-1 TD-INT split in his last three games. No quarterback tallied more yards in that span on throws that were caught behind the line of scrimmage, per PFF.

Stronger than most No. 7 seeds, Nix's club compiled the AFC's third-best point differential and only lost once by double digits. Highmark Stadium is a fortress - these Bills were unbeaten at home - but the Broncos have the manpower and scheme to potentially upend the bracket.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.