AFC wild-card betting: Bills open Super Bowl run as big favorites vs. Broncos
The playoffs are here! It's a fantastic time of the year for football fans as the march toward Super Bowl LIX begins.
First up is the AFC, a conference that features three of the four favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Chiefs (+350) are second on the oddsboard behind the Lions, with the Bills (+550) and Ravens (+550) rounding out the top four.
Playoff action begins Saturday, so let's waste no time getting to our picks in the AFC wild-card games.
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
The NFL playoffs kick off in Houston with the Texans hosting the Chargers as 3-point underdogs. Houston is one of two home underdogs in the wild-card round (the Rams are the other) in a game with the lowest point total of the opening round.
C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert - two former Offensive Rookie of the Year winners - are making their second playoff starts. Stroud and his Texans are limping into the postseason as losers of two of their final three games, including a Christmas Day contest in which they scored two points against the Ravens.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have won three straight - covering the spread as favorites in all three - and Herbert has his offense firing, scoring at least 34 points in each victory. A high-powered offense to go along with the Chargers' elite defense - their 17.7 points allowed per game were the fewest in the league - is a dangerous combo.
The Texans' 10-7 record was good enough to win arguably the league's weakest division but not good enough to get the betting market's respect. They're outclassed on both offense and defense, making the Chargers the team to back.
Pick: Chargers -3
Saturday, 8 p.m.
This wild-card matchup between division rivals is the largest spread of the weekend and is the third showdown between Pittsburgh and Baltimore this season. The Steelers narrowly won the first matchup in November, but the Ravens dominated in Baltimore in the rematch in late December.
These two teams are trending in opposite directions, which has led to a 9.5-point spread in favor of Baltimore. The Ravens won four straight to close the season, while the Steelers lost four straight.
Pittsburgh's recent stretch has few people believing Mike Tomlin's group can win a playoff game. But this is a buy-low spot on the Steelers, who aren't as bad as their losing streak indicates. Sure, the Steelers are neither a legitimate Super Bowl threat nor a great team, but they're a good one. They hit a buzzsaw of a schedule to close the season. Pittsburgh played the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs - all Super Bowl contenders - in the span of 11 days before finishing its season against a red-hot and desperate Bengals squad.
The Steelers faltered late in the season because of a tough schedule and unreliable quarterback play. Pittsburgh still finished the season with a top-10 scoring defense and the sixth-best rushing defense. Until the team's December matchup, Tomlin had been effective at shutting down Lamar Jackson.
Jackson is 1-4 in his last five meetings against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is the only team Jackson has thrown more interceptions against (nine) than touchdowns (eight). The Ravens are also expected to be without Jackson's top target, Zay Flowers, as he deals with a knee injury.
Russell Wilson's inconsistency will present a challenge for the Steelers' offense, but Wilson has a plethora of playoff experience. This is too large of a spread to lay the points with the favorite.
Pick: Steelers +10
Sunday, 1 p.m.
The opening game of Sunday's slate is the final of the AFC wild-card contests. The Broncos are in Buffalo as 8.5-point underdogs to the Bills, who have the third-shortest Super Bowl odds at +550 at theScoreBet/ESPN bet.
There's no debate that Buffalo is a powerhouse. Josh Allen put together a season that may earn him his first MVP award while leading the Bills to another AFC East title with a 13-4 record. This could be Buffalo's year, and the team should be able to handle the Broncos.
However, Denver isn't a pushover, and 8.5 points is a lot to cover in a playoff game. Bo Nix had an incredible rookie season after many questioned his selection as the 12th overall pick. He has the Broncos averaging 32.2 points per game over their last five while being a threat through the air and on the ground.
Denver may also have the best defensive player in football: Pat Surtain. Having a shutdown cornerback will limit Allen's options through the air even though Buffalo lacks a true No. 1 option.
It'd be shocking to see the Bills lose this game as -450 favorites on the moneyline, but getting 8.5 points with the Broncos is enough to trust Nix and their defense to keep the game close.
Pick: Broncos +8.5