NFC wild-card betting: Eagles' physicality will overwhelm Packers
The NFC takes center stage once the trio of AFC games are complete.
The Packers and Eagles kick off the conference's wild-card games in a matchup that had NFC championship potential if the seedings worked out differently. Instead, one of the top seven Super Bowl favorites will suffer a first-round exit while the other will keep its championship dream alive.
Let's dive in.
Sunday 4:30 p.m. ET
The Packers are a particularly talented 7-seed, but playing in the best division in football hurt them. Now they head to Philadelphia to play one of the NFL's best and most complete teams on Wild Card Weekend.
This isn't an overly complicated handicap: Playoff football in cold temperatures is about which team will be tougher for longer. Over the last three months, the Eagles proved they're as tough and physical a team as exists in the NFL today. Philadelphia has the top-ranked defense and second-best rushing attack, averaging 179 yards per game on the ground.
The Eagles wear opponents down with their physicality, as they showed in victories over the Rams, Ravens, and Steelers during a 10-game win streak that likely would've kept going if Jalen Hurts hadn't been hurt in a December loss to the Commanders. But Hurts is back, and even if he's slightly rusty, the Eagles rely on the league's best offensive line and most explosive running back in Saquon Barkley to move the chains. They've even found success against stacked boxes. And when Philly needs the passing game to carry the offense, it still has an accurate quarterback and an elite wide receiver duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Jordan Love is dealing with an elbow injury and Christian Watson, one of Love's top targets, tore his ACL in Week 18. The Eagles defeated the Packers in the season opener in Brazil, but Green Bay scored 29 points. However, Philly's defense has made remarkable strides since.
The Eagles are the more talented and physical group, and they're playing at home in front of a raucous crowd. Look for them to end the Packers' season without much trouble.
Pick: Eagles -5
Sunday 8:15 p.m.
The Commanders head south to face the Buccaneers in the franchise's first playoff game since losing to Tampa Bay in the wild-card round four years ago, the same year Tom Brady led the Bucs to their second Super Bowl.
Likely Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels is getting three points on the road in his playoff debut, a game with a 50.5-point total - the highest of Wild Card Weekend. Coincidentally, these two teams met in Daniels' NFL debut when the Bucs beat the Commanders 37-20 in Week 1.
A lot has changed since then. Daniels and Baker Mayfield have their respective offenses cooking; they're both in the top six in yards per game and top five in points per game. However, both defenses struggle to prevent points - hence the high total.
Tampa ranks fourth-last in passing yards per game while Washington allows the third-most rushing yards per game. The Buccaneers' secondary and the Commanders' front seven will play a huge role in determining this game's winner.
The Commanders are ahead of the Bucs in defense-adjusted value over average, or DVOA (a metric that compares a team's performance to a league-average baseline based on situation and opponent), but the spread indicates Tampa is the better team. This line should be closer to the Bucs as 1.5-point favorites, so we'll side with the underdog getting a field goal in a tight contest.
Pick: Commanders +3
Monday 8:15 p.m.
This game was relocated to Arizona due to the wildfires near Los Angeles. Now that it'll be a neutral-site game, the spread moved 1.5 points in the Vikings' favor, proving what home-field advantage is worth in today's league.
Despite their impressive 14-3 record, the Vikings left a bad taste in people's mouths after the Lions dismantled them in prime time. Sam Darnold didn't look good, throwing for only 166 yards on 41 attempts. The Lions generated a ton of pressure, which knocked Darnold out of rhythm and made Minnesota's offense look dysfunctional.
Luckily for Darnold, the Rams don't generate much pressure. They're in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate (21.4%), blitz rate (23.1%), and sacks (38). Despite being sacked three times in the Vikings' first meeting with the Rams, which L.A. won 30-20, Minnesota should be able to make the necessary adjustments to keep Darnold upright and allow him to distribute to his elite playmakers.
Although the Rams are one of two teams to beat the Vikings this season, Minnesota is still one of the best teams in the NFL. The Vikings have a top-10 offense and defense based on points scored and allowed per game, while both Rams units rank outside the top 15.
Minnesota ranks seventh in DVOA - ahead of the Chiefs - while the Rams are 17th. DVOA isn't an end-all, be-all statistic, but it does a quality job of ranking teams, and there's a substantial gap between these two.
Had Minnesota played marginally better last week, the Vikings would be favored by more than a field goal. Take the recency-bias value and trust the better team.
Pick: Vikings -2.5