AFC divisional betting preview: Get your popcorn ready for Bills-Ravens

Many say the divisional round is the best weekend of football all year. Last week's mostly uncompetitive games and the intriguing matchups in the final eight would suggest there's truth to that sentiment.

The AFC semis features three of the top five Super Bowl favorites at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet: Chiefs (+325), Ravens (+450), and Bills (+550). Odds suggest one of these three teams will likely be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in three weeks.

Let's get to it.

The defending champions will be fresh off a bye week when they host the Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday afternoon. With their 15-2 regular-season record, the Chiefs earned home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as they march toward a third straight Super Bowl.

The Texans impressed last week in a dominating home win over the Chargers. Fueled by Rex Ryan calling Houston a bye week for the Chargers, C.J. Stroud's side put up 32 points on a stout Los Angeles defense while forcing Justin Herbert to throw four interceptions.

Houston wasn't respected by the betting market last week as a three-point home underdog. It doesn't appear the Texans' effort against the Chargers was impressive enough to get them to less-than-a-touchdown underdogs in Kansas City.

But it's understandable.

This is Patrick Mahomes' time of year. The Chiefs may have coasted through the regular season, narrowly winning games they should have won by double-digits, but we've seen this story before. This is when they lock in, and the Texans should be their first victim.

The Chiefs have the far better quarterback (Stroud has regressed this season compared to his fantastic rookie campaign), are better coached, have the rest advantage (they sat their starters in Week 18), and are at home. Their defense is comparable to Houston's, but the Chiefs' core - anchored by All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones - is far more tested in clutch playoff moments.

The Texans' offense remains a concern. Without Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins is the only receiving weapon at Stroud's disposal. Collins torched the Chargers' secondary last week, but Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo won't allow a repeat performance.

Kansas City struggled to cover during the regular season (8-9 against the spread) and was only a 3.5-point favorite when these two teams met in Week 16, a game in which the Chiefs won 27-19 at home. You can understand why people could be inclined to back the Texans getting 8.5 points, but Houston may have played their best game of the season a week too early.

Last week proved that home favorites can cover big numbers in the playoffs. The Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Texans, and Rams (at a neutral site) all won by 12 points or more. Trust the Chiefs to join that list with a convincing victory over a Texans team that underachieved most of the season.

Pick: Chiefs -8.5

This is by far the marquee game of the divisional round, and it's a shame one of these teams' seasons will end this weekend.

The Ravens and Bills have both enjoyed sensational seasons and have been on a collision course ever since it became evident the Chiefs had the No. 1 seed locked up. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen both turned in MVP-caliber campaigns, setting the stage for an all-time classic Sunday night.

The line originally opened with the Bills as 1-point favorites, but enough money has come in on the Ravens to flip the spread. Still, this game is largely a coin flip with the Bills paying -105 on the moneyline.

These two teams are very evenly matched. Their offenses are predicated on an effective run game, which their quarterbacks are heavily involved in. This in turn opens up the passing attack. Neither team has true superstars in pass-catching positions, but the Ravens certainly have an edge at running back with Derrick Henry likely to handle 20 or more carries.

The slight advantage the Ravens have on offense they give up on defense, ranking second last in passing yards allowed per game. Allen shouldn't have a problem dissecting the Ravens' porous secondary.

While the Ravens ranked first in rushing yards allowed per game, the Bills don't have a traditional rushing attack. Baltimore's ability to clog up the line of scrimmage may not be as effective against Buffalo since Allen generates a lot of yardage by escaping a collapsed pocket.

The Bills' defense is far more balanced and should be better suited to slow down Jackson than the Ravens against Allen.

Yes, the Ravens destroyed the Bills 35-10 at home in their Week 4 contest. Henry ran for 199 yards and three touchdowns, and Allen only completed 16 passes for 180 yards.

However, home-field advantage can't be underestimated in this game. The Bills were one of two teams to go undefeated at home during the regular season (Kansas City was the other), and the Buffalo crowd will do everything possible to make Jackson's day difficult.

We're splitting hairs between two Super Bowl contenders but siding with the home team.

Pick: Bills +1