NFC championship betting preview: Can Daniels continue improbable playoff run?
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders - the playoffs' most improbable story - visit the division-rival Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
This will be the third time these two teams have met this season. They each won the game they hosted, but Kenny Pickett was under center for Philadelphia for most of Washington's victory.
The Eagles are 6-point favorites, a rather substantial spread this late into the playoffs. For reference, there are lookahead spreads available for hypothetical Super Bowl matchups and the Commanders are priced as 4.5-point underdogs to both the Chiefs and Bills.
Handicapping this game starts with breaking down the favorite. Betting on a team to win a playoff game by nearly a touchdown is a big ask. Do the Eagles have what it takes?
On defense, the answer is yes. Philadelphia fields a fantastic unit that can hold any offense in check. While the Rams put up 22 points in the snowy conditions last week, the Eagles proved all season that their defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl. It gave up the second-fewest points per game during the regular season at 17.8.
Their offense can also be potent, but there are question marks surrounding Jalen Hurts - he's dealing with a knee injury suffered against the Rams. He also hasn't been asked to throw the ball lately. Saquon Barkley is dominating on the ground, allowing Hurts to pass for just 128 and 131 yards in his last two games.
The Commanders, for their part, have been very susceptible against the run - and the Eagles' offense is built to exploit that.
But Washington's Daniels-led offense can force Philly into uncomfortable territory. If the Commanders can strike quickly, or turn this game into a shootout, the Eagles will be forced to throw the ball instead of leaving it with Barkley, which is certainly not their preferred game plan.
The Commanders beat the Lions using this strategy. Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 7.5 yards per carry against Washington in just 14 rushing attempts.
Washington's defense also stepped up against Jared Goff and Co. It picked off Goff four times and generated a momentum-swinging fumble early in the game. While it may have struggled during the regular season, the Commanders' defense is showing up when it matters most.
The Eagles are the better football team; that's not the question. But if the Commanders are projected to be 4.5-point underdogs next week in the Super Bowl, there's value in them getting six points when another upset isn't out of the question.
Pick: Commanders +6