AFC championship betting preview: Will Allen finally dethrone Mahomes?
Here we go - the game everyone's been waiting for.
The Bills will be in Arrowhead for another clash with the Chiefs for the AFC championship. The Chiefs are 3-0 in this recent postseason rivalry, a word we'll use to describe the meetings between these two teams even though it's been one-sided.
The Chiefs are 2-point favorites at home, indicating the betting market thinks the Chiefs are a slightly better team when accounting for home-field advantage (worth roughly 1.5 points toward the spread).
When these two teams met in Week 11, the Bills closed as 2.5-point favorites at home and won 30-21. However, even Josh Allen acknowledged their regular-season victory - the only game the Chiefs lost while playing their starters - doesn't mean anything.
That closing spread continues to hold some weight when handicapping this AFC Championship Game. In Week 11, the betting market believed the Bills were the superior side. But that sentiment seems to have flipped. If you buy the notion that Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs elevate their play in the playoffs, then the 2-point spread for this game makes sense. But if you still peg the Bills as the better team and think they would be favorites on a neutral field, then there's value in backing Buffalo in this game.
It's hard to judge the Chiefs on their recent body of work - their starters have played only one game since Christmas Day. Perhaps rust was a factor in their 23-14 victory over the Texans last week, but it's tough to be overly impressed with the Chiefs' performance despite getting the win.
The Chiefs were outgained on offense, had fewer first downs, and lost the time-of-possession battle to the Texans. Mahomes threw for only 177 yards with Travis Kelce accounting for 117 of those. The Texans have one of the best defensive units in the league, providing the Bills a blueprint for slowing down Mahomes.
Kansas City's defense beat Houston. It allowed only 12 points (the Chiefs conceded a last-second safety) and sacked C.J. Stroud eight times.
Of course, the Chiefs have room for improvement on offense, and maybe they will improve with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. However, the Bills are playing their best football of the season and Allen's offense presents a far different test than Stroud's.
The Bills dominated the Broncos - who also had a great defense - then beat the Ravens by winning the turnover margin 3-0, both at home. Buffalo let its offense handle Denver, then relied on its defense to get past Baltimore. The Bills will be hard to beat if they put it all together against the Chiefs.
We'll give the Chiefs the edge on defense, but as it stands right now, the Bills have the better offense. Allen has performed at an MVP level all season and carried it into the postseason.
There's no debate that Mahomes is the greatest active quarterback. But based on 2024 performance, Allen is playing at the highest level of the four remaining signal-callers in the playoffs, which is why it's tough to bet against him as an underdog.
The Bills have a great shot at winning this game outright, so we'll take the two points in a contest that could easily be decided on a last-second field goal.
Pick: Bills +2