Super Bowl betting trends: Deciding which to buy or sell

Trends are a casual bettor's best friend and many use them if they are predictive or not. Whether that's a smart approach is a different story. Professional bettors often dismiss historic trends as having no impact on the upcoming outcome. That's certainly the case for some trends, but others provide glimpses of a player's and team's past performances in similar environments.

We broke down eight Super Bowl trends and decided whether you should buy (they deliver useful information that can inform a bet) or sell (a pure coincidence that will have nothing to do with the outcome). And if you want to bet based on a fluky trend, by all means go for it. Nobody's stopping you.

Trend 1: The outright winner is 48-7-3 against the spread (87.3%) in the previous 58 Super Bowls.

Verdict: Buy

This trend tells us the spread is essentially useless in the Super Bowl. While the spread is so tight in this game that it would be foolish to take the Eagles with the points instead of the moneyline, it's a noticeable trend that whoever wins the Big Game also covers the number. This could relate to a trend discussed later about underdogs' recent Super Bowl success.

Nevertheless, the Super Bowl has the best against-the-spread win percentage for the outright winner of any other NFL playoff round.

Trend 2: Teams wearing white jerseys have won 16 of the past 20 Super Bowls.

Verdict: Sell

This fun trend circulates when the jersey colors are announced for each team. It's pretty wild that the team in white usually wins, but it has no bearing on this matchup or any future matchup. Look good, feel good, play good, I guess? But I hate to break it to the jersey truthers; the color of the jersey has no impact on the outcome. So, please, don't waste any real money because of this trend.

Trend 3: Teams that played on Wild Card Weekend are 13-1-1 ATS in the past 15 Super Bowl games against teams with a first-round bye.

Verdict: Buy

This is difficult to decipher. Is there something to having to play an extra postseason game, gaining that experience in must-win contests, and building momentum toward the Super Bowl, or is this complete randomness? I'm going to say it's the former.

It speaks volumes that wild-card teams consistently perform well in this game. A playoff run offers an advantage in terms of experience, momentum, and confidence.

Common sense would suggest any team that played fewer games should be well-rested, but the two-week bye leading up to the Super Bowl mostly negates that advantage.

Trend 4: Teams that rush for more yards are 43-15 straight up.

Verdict: Buy

While you can't win the Super Bowl without a quarterback who can make clutch plays, running the ball in the Big Game is instrumental to having your team's confetti fall.

The Chiefs outgained their opponents on the ground in the past two Super Bowls, including against the Eagles two seasons ago. However, Kansas City failed to win the rushing battle in its Super Bowl win over the 49ers in 2020. Still, running effectively - and thus controlling time of possession - is critical.

Based on this trend, the Eagles have a huge advantage. They have the NFL's best rushing attack led by Saquon Barkley running behind the league's most dominant offensive line. One of the biggest differences between the Eagles this season compared with 2022 is their explosive running game that's seemingly unstoppable.

Trend 5: The team with the better record has lost 12 of the past 14 Super Bowls and is 2-19-1 ATS in the past 29 Super Bowls.

Verdict: Sell

Who cares who has the better record? Many variables go into a regular season record - conference strength, division strength, and early-season injuries that heal by year's end.

It's certainly interesting that the team with a worse record has won at a higher rate recently, which favors the Eagles. However, records are worthless in this game. More often than not, Super Bowl teams will have similar records separated by one or two wins, so it's irrelevant when picking a winner.

Trend 6: Super Bowl favorites are 9-18-2 against the spread in the past 29 Super Bowls, and underdogs have won outright in 10 of the past 17.

Verdict: Sell

Overall, Super Bowl favorites are 35-22 straight up, but underdogs have recently reigned supreme in the Big Game. No rational explanations can be made for the phenomenon other than recent Super Bowl opponents have been evenly matched, and it's becoming increasingly harder for oddsmakers to assign a favorite.

The underdog has won three of the past four years, including the past two when the Chiefs were underdogs. In hindsight, assigning Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is laughable. However, oddsmakers learned their lesson and Mahomes is now a slight favorite. Perhaps teams rally behind the underdog label and use it as extra motivation.

But there's no true underdog when the spread is as tight as it is for Sunday's game. Sure, the Eagles are technically the underdog and will count toward the trend if they win, but this trend is only useful when the spread is greater than 1.5.

Trend 7: Teams that won the turnover battle are 38-7 straight up (only including Super Bowls that had a turnover advantage).

Verdict: Buy

From Pop Warner to the NFL, football coaches preach that whoever wins the turnover margin will win. As this trend explains, that's no different on the sport's biggest stage. Nothing is more important than protecting the football.

If one team commits more turnovers than the other, it's almost certain it will lose. After all, the difference in the Eagles' 3-point Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs was Jalen Hurts' fumble late in the second quarter. Kansas City didn't commit a turnover in that game. Teams with a turnover advantage in this year's playoffs are 8-0 straight up.

Now, who does this trend favor on Sunday? Both offensive units are exceptional at protecting the football as neither group has committed a single turnover in the playoffs. However, the Eagles' defense has 10 takeaways this postseason while the Chiefs' defense hasn't forced a takeaway. In the regular season, Kansas City's turnover differential was six while Philadelphia's was 11.

Trend 8: The under has hit in five of the past six Super Bowls.

Verdict: Buy

Recent Super Bowls have had a surge of unders with five of the past six falling below the total, including last year's game that fell under by a half-point. Furthermore, the under hit in seven of the past nine Super Bowls when the total closed in the 40s. The over/under for Super Bowl LIX opened at 49.5, but fell to 48.5, indicating bettors piled in on the under.

The only Super Bowl that exceeded the total in the past six games was the 38-35 thriller between the Eagles and Chiefs. But the Eagles' defense is revamped for this rematch, holding opponents to 18.3 points per game, the league's second-best mark.