Super Bowl MVP bets: Will someone end Mahomes' run?
The Super Bowl MVP market isn't simply about picking the best player in the game. It's about selecting the best player on the team you believe will lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Patrick Mahomes is the overwhelming favorite with the Chiefs slightly favored. It's rare for a running back to sit near the top of the oddsboard in this market, but Saquon Barkley's historic season earned him the second-best odds as he goes for the single-season rushing record in the Big Game.
But is Barkley the Eagles player to bet on or should you target someone else? And how can you find value on a Chiefs player other than Mahomes?
Super Bowl MVP odds
| Player | Odds | % of bets |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +105 | 9% |
| Saquon Barkley | +275 | 24% |
| Jalen Hurts | +350 | 11% |
| Travis Kelce | +1800 | 8% |
| Xavier Worthy | +2500 | 3% |
| A.J. Brown | +3000 | 4% |
| DeVonta Smith | +5000 | 3% |
| Kareem Hunt | +5000 | 3% |
| Chris Jones | +6000 | 3% |
| Jalen Carter | +6000 | 5% |
| Marquise Brown | +6000 | 1% |
| Dallas Goedert | +7500 | 2% |
| Zack Baun | +7500 | 3% |
| Deandre Hopkins | +10000 | 1% |
| George Karlaftis | +10000 | 1% |
Jalen Hurts (+350)
The Eagles' running game got them this far, but their passing game will finish the task. Although Philadelphia's rushing attack is borderline unstoppable, the team came out passing aggressively against the Commanders in the NFC championship. Even after Barkley broke free for a 60-yard touchdown run on his first touch, the Eagles stayed aggressive, passing on nine of their first 14 plays and throwing the ball more than running it in the first half. Expect a similar game plan in the Super Bowl.
Philly's offense rarely faces a two-high safety scheme because teams are worried about Barkley in the backfield, and the Chiefs play primarily man-to-man defense. That should allow Jalen Hurts to cook in the passing game with incredible offensive playmakers on the outside.
If the Eagles win, Hurts could still have a difficult task jumping Barkley for MVP despite the fact 13 of the last 18 Super Bowl MVPs were quarterbacks. The national media has discredited Hurts all season because he's surrounded by elite talent and because the Eagles rely on their extraordinary running game (which Hurts is involved in). Those same media members are the ones voting on the award, which is why Barkley is ahead of Hurts on the oddsboard.
But Hurts has shown he can use his arm to make plays and step up in crucial moments. There are few quarterbacks as clutch as Hurts that consistently meet the moment. He'll have to produce a monstrous performance in a win to earn the honor, but he threw for over 300 passing yards and had four total touchdowns in the last Super Bowl against Kansas City two years ago.
Chris Jones (+6000)
Okay, so you think the Chiefs will win, but you want to capitalize on a scenario in which Patrick Mahomes doesn't win MVP. The odds suggest there's roughly a 51% chance Mahomes doesn't win the award for a fourth time.
Travis Kelce or another offensive weapon could be a contender, but it's hard to envision an offensive player on the Chiefs having a big game without Mahomes turning in an MVP-caliber performance.
That leaves us looking at the defensive side of the ball, and the more you analyze the options at some big numbers, the more intriguing betting on a defensive player gets.
Both teams field very stingy defenses, and it wouldn't be shocking to see either team struggle to score points. The game's total is 48.5, but the odds of the game going under 38.5 are only +300. If this game becomes a defensive battle, then someone like Chris Jones has a far greater chance of winning MVP than +6000 would suggest.
The Eagles' offense depends on the run, and Jones is one of the league's best run-stoppers. If he can get into the backfield to disrupt Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, and perhaps log a handful of tackles for a loss or multiple sacks, then Jones will receive MVP consideration, which is all you can ask for at +6000.
George Karlaftis (+10000)
George Karlaftis is the second Chiefs defender to target who can disrupt the Eagles' offense. Karlaftis led the Chiefs in sacks during the regular season and already has three in this postseason to go along with three tackles for a loss.
With Jones clogging up the middle, the Eagles may be more inclined to run the ball to the outside. Karlaftis should have plenty of opportunities to make big plays behind the line of scrimmage, and one strip-sack with a few tackles for a loss could be enough to get him into the MVP conversation.