The Chiefs show a knack for turning coin-flip games into wins

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Close games in the NFL are typically like coin flips with one or two key plays often the difference between a win or a loss.

When Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City have been in those tight games of late, the coin always seems to end up Chiefs.

Kansas City heads into the Super Bowl on Sunday against Philadelphia having won an NFL-record 17 straight games decided by one possession, with four of those wins coming in the postseason, including last season's overtime win in the Super Bowl against San Francisco.

No other team has ever won more than 13 straight one-possession games — with New England setting the previous mark in 2003-04 — and NFL NextGen's stats estimated that Kansas City's chances of being perfect in those games was about 1 out of 4,480 based on the win probability entering the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs' last loss in a close game came on Christmas Day in the 2023 season when they were upset 20-14 at home by the Raiders in a game when they never had the ball in the second half with a chance to tie or take the lead.

No one has been better in those tight, late-game moments than Mahomes — especially in the postseason. Kansas City has won nine of its last 10 one-possession playoff games starting with the run to a Super Bowl title in 2019 with Mahomes leading comebacks in the fourth quarter or overtime in six of those. Only Tom Brady has more for a career with nine fourth-quarter comeback wins in the playoffs.

Over his career, Mahomes has trailed in a playoff game in the fourth quarter nine times and has six comeback wins and two other games that went to overtime. The only time Kansas City didn't at least tie the game came in the Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay following the 2020 season, when the Bucs led 31-9 headed into the fourth quarter.

Mahomes has had the ball in the fourth quarter of a playoff game 16 times when trailing by between one and eight points and has been nearly perfect. The Chiefs have five game-tying field goals, 10 go-ahead touchdowns and one punt on those possessions.

Mahomes is 40 for 56 for 552 yards, five touchdown passes, one TD run, no turnovers and a 132.4 passer rating on those drives. All other quarterbacks have combined for a 72.3 rating in those scenarios since Mahomes became a starter in 2018.

Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley has some records in his sights as he heads into his first Super Bowl.

Barkley needs 30 yards rushing to break the single-season record for regular season and playoffs set by Denver's Terrell Davis, who ran for 2,476 yards on the way to winning the Super Bowl in the 1998 season. Barkley needs just 3 yards from scrimmage to break Davis' mark of 2,762 set that season.

While those both seem likely with Barkley easily topping those marks in every game he played this season, he also has an outside shot at breaking John Riggins' single-season playoff rushing record.

Riggins ran for 610 yards for Washington in four playoff games in the 1982 season. Barkley would need 169 yards Sunday — a mark he topped three times this season — to break that record. Barkley needs just 57 yards rushing to join Davis (581 yards in 1997) and Riggins as the only players with at least 500 in a single postseason.

Mahomes can also join an exclusive list if he rushes for at least 28 yards on Sunday to reach 200 in Super Bowls. Only seven players have at least 200 yards rushing in the Super Bowl, led by 354 for Pittsburgh's Franco Harris. The others are Larry Csonka (297), Emmitt Smith (289), Davis (259), Riggins (230), Thurman Thomas (204) and Timmy Smith (204)

For much of the season, the Eagles were extremely slow starters on offense.

They were the first team in 33 years to go scoreless in the first quarter in the first seven games of a season and ranked last in the NFL with just 17 points in the first quarter through the first 14 weeks of the season.

That trend has changed the last two months. Philadelphia scored 45 first-quarter points in the final four games of the regular season — including 21 against Washington in Week 16 — and 37 more in the first quarter in the three playoff games.

The Eagles are just the third team ever to reach double digits in points in the first quarter of three playoff games, with Green Bay doing it in the 1995 season and Denver in 1997.

If the game comes down to a long kick, that might not bode well for the Eagles.

Jake Elliott is just 1 for 8 this season on field goals from at least 50 yards, including a missed 54-yarder against Washington in the NFC title game and a 60-yarder in a Week 3 game at the Superdome against the Saints.

The 12.5% success rate on long field goals would be the worst for any team that has had at least five attempts since 1994, when New Orleans went 0 for 6 and Detroit was 0 for 5.

Kansas City's Harrison Butker has an NFL-record six made field goals from at least 50 yards in the postseason with just one miss. He set a Super Bowl record with a 57-yarder last year against San Francisco and converted a game-winning 27-yarder two years ago against the Eagles.

Elliott has also missed three extra points this postseason with a league-high 13 missed kicks overall this season.

The battle between conferences has gone through ebbs and flows over the years with the AFC (or AFL) winning 11 of 13 titles from Super Bowl 3 through Super Bowl 15.

The NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls starting following the 1984 season when San Francisco beat Miami for its second title.

Now thanks to the recent runs by Kansas City and New England, the scorecard is tied up with 29 wins apiece. The AFC can retake the lead for the first time since the 1980s with a Chiefs win on Sunday.

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