NFL draft odds: Are the top 3 picks already locked in?
The Titans are on the clock with the NFL draft beginning Thursday.
The 2025 class may not be as quarterback-heavy as last year's, when six were selected in the first 12 picks, but it doesn't lack storylines.
Let's examine how the top-five picks may go and focus on some other key players who could hear their names called inside the top 10.
No. 1 pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cam Ward | -20000 |
| Abdul Carter | +2800 |
| Travis Hunter | +5000 |
| Shedeur Sanders | +7000 |
Cam Ward is as close as a sure thing as possible to hear his name called first by commissioner Roger Goodell on Thursday. The former University of Miami quarterback is -20000 (99.5% implied probability) at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet to end up in Tennessee.
Ward wasn't as highly touted as the top three quarterbacks from last year (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye), but he's the best signal-caller in the class. The Titans can't pass up the opportunity to add a potential franchise QB. This would also end Tennessee's Will Levis experiment.
No. 2 pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Travis Hunter | -1400 |
| Abdul Carter | +550 |
| Shedeur Sanders | +1800 |
| Cam Ward | +10000 |
With Ward off the board, Travis Hunter is the heavy favorite to be selected second overall by the Browns. Browns general manager Andrew Berry called him a "unicorn" when discussing how they'd deploy the two-way player's skills.
There were rumblings earlier in the offseason that edge rusher Abdul Carter would be the Browns' pick, but that was before Myles Garrett rescinded his trade request and signed a four-year extension with Cleveland.
Unless something shocking happens, like a team trading up to select a quarterback ahead of the Giants, expect Hunter to be a Brown.
No. 3 pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Abdul Carter | -700 |
| Shedeur Sanders | +500 |
| Travis Hunter | +600 |
| Ashton Jeanty | +6000 |
| Jaxon Dart | +8000 |
The Giants have needed a quarterback since Eli Manning retired, but their signing of Russell Wilson suggests they're not planning to use the third pick on the sport's most important position. Carter is the likely selection at No. 3, with -700 odds implying a probability of 87.5%.
There's always a chance New York takes Shedeur Sanders, but the Colorado Buffaloes quarterback's draft stock seems to be trending in the wrong direction as draft day approaches.
If you parlayed the top three picks in order - Ward, Hunter, and Carter - the odds are -434, which implies a probability of 81.3% that'll be the exact order.
No. 4 pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will Campbell | -1200 |
| Abdul Carter | +900 |
| Ashton Jeanty | +1200 |
| Armand Membou | +1600 |
| Jalon Walker | +1600 |
| Mason Graham | +2500 |
| Shedeur Sanders | +4000 |
| Travis Hunter | +4000 |
You can make the case that this is where the draft may get interesting. The Patriots will sprint to the podium if either Hunter or Carter falls to them. Otherwise, New England can either play it safe by selecting Will Campbell to protect Maye's blindside or make a splash with Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty is +1200, so it's a bit of a long shot. However, he's been compared to Saquon Barkley, and teams may be interested in trading up past the Jaguars at No. 5 and the Raiders at No. 6 to land Jeanty.
The explosive back's draft position line is set at 6.5, with the under having -190 odds. It's not crazy to think Jeanty could end up a Patriot, or on a team that wants to keep him away from the Raiders.
No. 5 pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mason Graham | -145 |
| Ashton Jeanty | +250 |
| Armand Membou | +500 |
| Jalon Walker | +600 |
| Will Campbell | +1500 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | +1600 |
| Travis Hunter | +1600 |
| Tyler Warren | +1600 |
| Will Johnson | +1600 |
The Jaguars are most likely to select defensive tackle Mason Graham out of Michigan, but they could go in a handful of directions.
Jeanty could also end up in Jacksonville, but the Jags need help all over the field. New GM James Gladstone may be looking to fill those holes rather than focusing on a position that can be addressed later in the draft.
Tackle Armand Membou out of Missouri and linebacker Jalon Walker out of Georgia are also options.
Odds to be a top-10 pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | -1200 |
| Jalon Walker | -700 |
| Armand Membou | -600 |
| Shedeur Sanders | -250 |
| Tyler Warren | -150 |
| Kelvin Banks Jr. | +190 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | +200 |
| Will Johnson | +210 |
| Mykel Williams | +260 |
| Colston Loveland | +300 |
| Jaxson Dart | +350 |
| Shemar Stewart | +490 |
| Jahdae Barron | +500 |
Jeanty has a 92.3% implied probability of being selected in the top 10, but where he goes is still up in the air. It'll likely come down to the Raiders (-145), Jaguars (+180), or Bears (+250), who pick 10.
Sanders should go in the top 10, with the Saints at No. 9 the most likely team to pick him at +220. The Steelers, still without an answer at quarterback, are the second-most likely team at +360, but they have the 21st pick. Sanders could be the player who falls the furthest down the draft board on Day 1.