Boom or Bench: Week 4 start/sit fantasy tips
Boom or Bench provides insight and analysis to help you handle your difficult fantasy football starting lineup decisions every week.
QB: Raiders' Geno Smith vs. Bears
Smith is reliant on matchups for strong fantasy performances. This is a good one, as only the Cowboys and Dolphins have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The Bears have allowed the sixth-most passing yards this season and 31 points per game.
Chicago kept Dak Prescott in check last week, but CeeDee Lamb's exit was a big factor in Dallas' struggles as the game went on. Smith should have all of Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and Ashton Jeanty to stress every level of the defense.
Projection: 287 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 11 rushing yards
Other QBs primed to boom:
Packers' Jordan Love at Cowboys
Falcons' Michael Penix Jr. vs. Commanders
RB: Chargers' Omarion Hampton at Giants
Hampton scored his first NFL touchdown in Week 3 and is primed to find the end zone again versus the Giants. New York has surrendered four rushing touchdowns this season; only the Titans and Ravens have allowed more (five each).
The rookie first-rounder should have plenty of chances to rack up yardage, too. Najee Harris is out for the season with an Achilles injury, only the Bills have allowed more rushing yards per game than the Giants, and Hampton is fresh off a 25-touch game.
Projection: 111 rushing yards, 28 receiving yards, 3 receptions, TD
RB: Vikings' Jordan Mason at Steelers
The Steelers' defense ranks 27th against the run through three weeks, allowing 139.3 rushing yards per game. Mason should handle the bulk of Minnesota's carries against Pittsburgh with Aaron Jones on injured reserve, leaving Mason and Zavier Scott as the only healthy running backs on the active roster.
Mason started in place of Jones last week, turning 16 carries into 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Bengals. He likely would've produced even more if Minnesota didn't blow out Cincinnati.
Projection: 102 rushing yards, 14 receiving yards, 2 receptions, TD
Other RBs primed to boom:
Cardinals' Trey Benson vs. Seahawks
Giants' Cam Skattebo vs. Chargers
WR: Chiefs' Tyquan Thornton vs. Ravens
Thornton is tied with Hollywood Brown for the Chiefs' team lead in receiving yards with 171 through three contests. He's played more snaps, seen more targets, and posted more yardage with every week.
The Ravens provide Thornton with one of his best chances to make an impact. Only the Cowboys have allowed more passing yards per game, and only the Dolphins have surrendered more points per matchup. Patrick Mahomes has excelled against Baltimore as well. The two-time MVP has averaged 354 passing yards and 2.6 touchdowns in his five games against the AFC rival.
Projection: 92 receiving yards, 6 receptions, TD
WR: Colts' Michael Pittman Jr. at Rams
Pittman has played over 80% of the Colts' offensive snaps in all three games this season, scored twice, and gone over 70 yards twice. He's yet to have a remarkably explosive game, but he should carry his momentum into a decent matchup with the Rams.
Los Angeles has surrendered the 13th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season despite ranking sixth in passing yards allowed. Although Pittman's unlikely to have an exceptional outing, fantasy managers should expect another solid performance.
Projection: 81 receiving yards, 5 receptions, TD
Other WRs primed to boom:
Raiders' Jakobi Meyers vs. Bears
49ers' Ricky Pearsall vs. Jaguars
TE: Vikings' T.J. Hockenson at Steelers
Hockenson got off to a slow start before bouncing back last week against the Bengals. He should be even more productive against a Steelers defense that's allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Temporary Vikings starter Carson Wentz is no stranger to targeting the position. In four of the six seasons that Wentz started at least 11 games, a tight end led his team in receiving yards. In one of those seasons, tight ends finished first and second in yards, while in one of the two exceptions, a tight end finished second on the team by 15 yards.
Projection: 88 receiving yards, 6 receptions, TD
Other TEs primed to boom:
Falcons' Kyle Pitts vs. Commanders
Jaguars' Brenton Strange at 49ers
QB: Cowboys' Dak Prescott vs. Packers
Things got rough for Prescott once CeeDee Lamb left last week's game against one of the softest defenses in the league. Lamb is out Sunday due to the same ankle injury, and the Packers have essentially been the inverse of the Bears on defense.
Green Bay's defense is first in scoring, seventh against the pass, and has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. The Packers are also fifth in sacks and have Micah Parsons, who should be motivated in this revenge game, playing more snaps every week.
Projection: 204 passing yards, TD, 2 INTs
Other QBs to bench:
Cardinals' Kyler Murray vs. Seahawks
Steelers' Aaron Rodgers vs. Vikings
RB: Bengals' Chase Brown at Broncos
Brown has a string of average-to-positive matchups in Weeks 7-17, but his rough start is likely to continue against the Broncos. Denver will be able to dedicate plenty of defensive resources to stopping the run if Jake Browning doesn't rebound from a rough outing versus the Vikings. That seems unlikely: The Broncos have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and are tied for the league lead with 12 sacks.
As a result, Brown will probably continue to struggle to find running room. The 25-year-old has minus-54 yards before contact this season, according to Next Gen Stats, and just 93 rushing yards on 47 carries.
Projection: 40 rushing yards, 18 receiving yards, 3 receptions
RB: Lions' David Montgomery vs. Browns
Montgomery was electric against the Ravens but likely won't have a second consecutive elite game against the AFC North. The Browns have allowed just 57.3 rushing yards and 8.8 fantasy points to running backs per game this season. Those marks rank first and second in the NFL, respectively.
The Browns held Packers running back Josh Jacobs, who has a similar build and play style to Montgomery, to 30 rushing yards last week. However, Jacobs was able to post 44 yards on five receptions and nine targets. That should mean an even heavier dose of Jahmyr Gibbs out of the Lions' backfield than usual.
Projection: 34 rushing yards, 19 receiving yards, 3 receptions
Other RBs to bench:
Bears' D'Andre Swift at Raiders
Steelers' Jaylen Warren vs. Vikings
WR: Jaguars' Brian Thomas Jr. at 49ers
It's hard to envision Thomas correcting his slow start against a 49ers team that's fifth in passing defense and third in scoring. San Francisco is also fifth in fantasy points allowed to receivers.
Targets haven't been an issue for the LSU product, but he's been held under five receptions and 60 receiving yards in every game this season. Although Jacksonville may go out of its way to create touches for the speedster, don't expect a big outing this weekend.
Projection: 58 receiving yards, 5 receptions
WR: Commanders' Deebo Samuel at Falcons
Samuel's prospects against Atlanta are better if Jayden Daniels returns to the starting lineup, but they still don't look great. The Falcons have allowed the fewest passing yards and seventh-fewest fantasy points to receivers thus far.
Samuel only had 29 scrimmage yards with Marcus Mariota under center last week and will likely need a touchdown to salvage a reasonable fantasy performance versus the Falcons. Unfortunately, the 29-year-old is facing a secondary that's only surrendered two receiving touchdowns this year.
Projection: 21 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards, 3 receptions
Other WRs to bench:
Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle vs. Jets
Giants' Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Chargers
TE: Eagles' Dallas Goedert at Buccaneers
Goedert only caught one of his two targets for 33 yards against the Rams, but he somewhat salvaged his week by scoring on that reception. The Bucs have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this year and have hardly surrendered 100 scrimmage yards to the position. Overall, Tampa Bay has held tight ends to the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game.
History isn't on Goedert's side when it comes to finding the end zone either. The 30-year-old tight end has played in three games against the Buccaneers and hasn't scored despite being targeted 15 times.
Projection: 38 receiving yards, 4 receptions
Other TE to bench:
Commanders' Zach Ertz at Falcons
Saints' Juwan Johnson at Bills
Andrew Dixon is a contributing fantasy analyst for theScore.