NFL Week 5 picks: Daniels returns for high-powered matchup vs. Chargers

Baby steps, folks. Baby steps.

I was able to scratch out an 8-8 record last week and went 2-1 on five-star plays. Improving is always the goal, but if I can sustain those numbers for the remainder of the season, I'll be quite pleased. Remember, the best bettors in the world have a roughly 55% winning percentage on NFL sides while picking from a smaller selection of games.

That said, a 70% winning percentage for one week isn't impossible, so let's make it happen during Week 5.

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🏈 Pick: Chargers (-2.5)

Jayden Daniels will be back under center for the Commanders this week, but he can't fix their defensive woes. Washington is allowing 373 yards and 22.8 points per game, both ranking in the bottom half of the league.

The Chargers suffered their first loss of the year last week against the Giants, but coming home should do wonders for their offense. Standout second-year tackle Joe Alt will miss this game, adding to the injuries on their offensive line, but the Commanders' pass rush just isn't dangerous enough to take advantage.

This game has a 48.5-point total, one of the highest of the week, so a shootout is in the cards. In that case, we'll take the home team that's only being asked to win by a field goal.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Lions (-10.5)

The Lions closed as 10.5-point favorites at home to the Browns last week and won 34-10. They've averaged 41.3 points over their last three games and now get to tee off on the Bengals' atrocious defense.

Meanwhile, Jake Browning is not getting the job done as Joe Burrow's replacement. Cincinnati's offense looked inept against the Broncos last week, managing to score as many points as times Browning was sacked - three.

The Lions have shown they aren't afraid to run up the score, and they should do so again in a convincing road victory against a team they outclass on both sides of the ball.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Seahawks (-4.5)

The Seahawks covered on the road last Thursday in Arizona and are well-rested as they host the beat-up Buccaneers. Tampa Bay will likely be without Mike Evans again, and running back Bucky Irving was wearing a walking boot at Wednesday's practice.

This is not a good spot for the Bucs. They're injured and making a long trip to the Pacific Northwest, and the Seahawks are playing well - they've won and covered in three straight contests. Seattle's defense is only allowing 16.8 points per game and is 12th in yards allowed (317.3 per game).

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Titans (+7.5)

Look, the Titans are bad, but they have to keep a game within a touchdown at some point, right? Tennessee has lost all four of its games so far by at least eight points, failing to score on some of the league's best defenses (Broncos, Rams, and Texans).

Cam Ward shouldn't be intimidated by the Cardinals' defense. Plus, Arizona's offense is bleak and has lost its starting running back in back-to-back weeks (James Conner and Trey Benson).

The Titans were underdogs by a similar spread in Week 1 against the Broncos and only lost by eight. The Broncos are a much better team than the Cardinals, so you're getting a bit of a discount on the 0-4 Titans.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

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Jump to: Late slate

🏈 Pick: Vikings (-3.5)

The Vikings stayed overseas after their loss to Pittsburgh in Dublin and will welcome the Browns to the U.K. for their game in London. Cleveland has benched Joe Flacco in favor of rookie Dillon Gabriel as the franchise continues to search for a quarterback.

Last week, being asked to lay points with Carson Wentz was the main reason I backed the Steelers. Gabriel - who was never a highly touted prospect and whose selection in the third round was a bit of a shock - is an even worse option in his first start against a team that's already acclimated to the environment overseas.

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores should ensure Gabriel's first start is forgettable. He's 4-0 against rookie quarterbacks since taking the job in Minnesota. Myles Garrett is also questionable for this game and may not be 100% due to an ankle injury.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Ravens (+2.5)

The Ravens are off to a horrible start. They have a 1-3 record, their defense is lifeless, and Lamar Jackson is now sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Desperation is about to set in for Baltimore, but it's a well-coached group that can respond constructively to the adversity. Cooper Rush is a solid backup quarterback who won games in Dallas and should be serviceable for as long as Jackson is out.

However, this is mostly a bet against the Texans, who are riding high after defeating a bad Titans team 26-0. Houston hasn't impressed either, and beating Tennessee doesn't change that. C.J. Stroud is still facing far too much pressure, and the Ravens' defense should be able to exploit the Texans' biggest weakness in a bounce-back performance.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Jets (+2.5)

The Cowboys are fresh off a 40-40 tie against Micah Parsons and the Packers on Sunday night. That was a highly emotional game, and playing a full overtime session isn't great for recovery. Dallas now heads east to play the Jets, who are also on a short week after losing to the Dolphins on Monday night.

We know what the Cowboys are: They'll be in shootout games all season because their defense is among the worst in the league, while Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level and can score points at will.

Meanwhile, the Jets remain a mystery. They're 0-4, but they lost to the Steelers and Buccaneers by a combined four points. Their record may not be a true reflection of how good or bad the team is, and they are desperate to pick up their first win.

This could easily be a letdown spot for the Cowboys, and the Jets are due.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Colts (-6.5)

As expected, the Colts fell back to earth last week, but their loss to the Rams was a lot closer than the 27-20 score suggests. Adonai Mitchell fumbled through the end zone on a guaranteed touchdown, and then they gave up an 88-yard touchdown to Tutu Atwell that sealed the game.

Also, the Raiders stink. Geno Smith looks like a disappointing offseason acquisition so far - he threw three picks and just 117 yards against the lowly Bears defense. The Raiders' abysmal offensive line should make the Colts' defensive line, which can't generate much pressure, look good.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Giants (+2.5)

The Saints covered last week in Buffalo and still lost by 12. But even that effort on the road can't convince me to back Spencer Rattler as a favorite. He's just not good enough to win games in this league, which is why he's 0-11 in the NFL.

Jaxson Dart didn't throw the ball that well in his NFL debut, but he did enough to beat the Chargers, who are viewed as one of the best teams in the AFC. Yes, the Giants lost Malik Nabers to a torn ACL, but they should be able to move the ball on the Saints' defense without him, and their defensive front will give Rattler trouble.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Eagles (-3.5)

This is the third week in a row the Eagles are laying 3.5 points, and they covered both times before. They were 3.5-point favorites two weeks ago at home against the Rams, who are a better team than the Broncos.

Denver spanked the Bengals at home Monday night and didn't have to exert much effort in the process. However, the Broncos are still on a short week and traveling to the East Coast to face the reigning Super Bowl champions.

I'll continue to trust the Eagles to cover this number until they prove otherwise.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Panthers (+1.5)

The Dolphins earned their first win of the season against the Jets on Monday night, but it came at a cost. Tyreek Hill will miss the rest of the season after a gruesome knee injury. Even though Hill isn't the same player he once was, he still earned respect from opposing defenses.

The Panthers' last two games were both blowouts. They won by 30 at home against the Falcons and lost by 29 to the Patriots last week in New England. It's hard to know exactly who the Panthers are, but they're lined as a slight underdog at home against a team that's rated as equally bad. It may not seem like it, but there's value backing the Panthers in this spot.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

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