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NFL Week 7 picks: Vrabel to lay beatdown on former team

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Believe it or not, Week 6 was my worst round of picks so far this season. Going 5-10 against the spread is actually difficult, considering the games are close to 50-50 when factoring in the spread. But you know things aren't going your way when you get three points of closing line value on your favorite play and still fail to get the cover (thanks, Colts).

Let's quickly turn the page and break down Week 7's Sunday slate. You can find Sunday night's picks in a separate standalone article.

👉 Check out all of the Week 7 lines available at ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late slate

🏈 Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)

The Jaguars had a letdown game last week after beating the Chiefs on Monday night in Week 5. The lone bright spot in their loss to the Seahawks was that Brian Thomas Jr. had his best game of the year.

The Rams beat up on whatever you call the product fielded by the Ravens but lost Puka Nacua in the process. The star wideout is expected to miss this game ahead of their Week 8 bye.

This will be Jacksonville's 14th game in the U.K., the most of any team by a wide margin, and it should rebound to continue its impressive start to the season. Los Angeles, meanwhile, may be looking ahead to its bye rather than getting up for a non-conference game overseas.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Patriots (-6.5)

This is the ultimate revenge game for Mike Vrabel. The Patriots' head coach takes on the team that let him walk after the 2023 season, only to replace him with Brian Callahan, who was fired Monday.

The Titans are a disaster, and they're wasting a prime year of Cam Ward's development. Things aren't likely to improve under interim coach Mike McCoy and definitely not within a week. Vrabel won't take his foot off the gas against his former employer, and New England knows how much this game means to its coach.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Bears (-4.5)

The Bears looked good coming off their bye week, winning on the road versus Washington. The score looked a lot closer than it was though. Chicago had a touchdown overturned by a weak illegal formation call and consistently moved the ball on the Commanders' defense.

The Saints are ... well, the Saints. As long as Spencer Rattler is under center, they'll struggle to win games and compete on the road. New Orleans has been outscored by 43 points across its two road contests this season.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Browns (-2.5)

The Browns and Dolphins face off in a game that could have first overall pick implications. Both teams are 1-5 and searching for answers. However, l'll back the team that doesn't have its starting quarterback publicly calling out fellow players for missing meetings.

Both organizations are a mess, but at least Cleveland is at home and carries a stout defense that can make Tua Tagovailoa's day a living nightmare. There's also the potential for some severe weather, with wind and rain forecasted around game time. Again, backing the team with a better defense in that scenario is the way to go.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Jets (+1.5)

The Panthers visit the Jets in another game that won't excite many people. Carolina is coming off a home win over the Cowboys in Rico Dowdle's revenge game, while New York traveled home from London after dropping to 0-6 at the hands of the Broncos.

There's a lot of talk about Justin Fields' play, which hasn't been good. He doesn't look like a starting NFL quarterback (shocker, I know). But New York was able to hold Denver to only 13 points and nearly won despite Fields throwing for just 45 yards. Although the team is getting zero help on offense, the defense is solid.

I'll buy low on the Jets while selling high on the Panthers. Carolina is 0-3 on the road this season, and New York is desperate for its first victory.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Eagles (-2.5)

The Eagles haven't impressed this season, and back-to-back losses to the Broncos and Giants seem to have turned off the betting market on the reigning Super Bowl champs. But asking them to lay only 2.5 points to Carson Wentz is a tad disrespectful.

The Vikings are coming off a bye, but Philadelphia's most recent outing was last Thursday, negating some of Minnesota's rest advantage. Jalen Hurts is a much better quarterback than either of the Vikings' options, and trusting the superior QB to cover a spread of fewer than three points is often a wise choice.

Both teams' offensive and defensive units rate equally in yards for and against, but the Eagles have a much higher ceiling than the Vikings, and it would be shocking to see Philadelphia drop three straight games.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Chiefs (-11.5)

Division games can be closer than expected when the two teams are in the same tier. However, the Chiefs and Raiders couldn't be further apart in skill, so laying 11.5 points is the route to take.

Kansas City welcomes back Rashee Rice to provide Patrick Mahomes with another dangerous weapon in the passing game. The team still struggles to run the ball effectively, but attacking Las Vegas through the air is the right approach anyway. With Rice returning, expect Mahomes to put up impressive numbers as the Chiefs look climb the AFC West standings.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

👉 Check out all of the Week 7 lines available at ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Giants (+7.5)

The Broncos play close games. Four of their six matchups this year have been decided by four points or fewer. They did beat the Titans by eight in Week 1 and the Bengals by 25 in Week 4, but the Giants are far more feisty than those teams and should keep this contest close.

New York is coming off a huge win over the Eagles last Thursday, and the extra rest should help in its trip to Denver. Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo are making the Giants' offense a tough group to face, though the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. I expect this to be a low-scoring game (the total is only 40.5), making New York with 7.5 points the side to take.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Chargers (-1.5)

The Colts are off to a surprising 5-1 start, but before giving them too much credit, let's look at a few of the teams they've beaten: the Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, and Cardinals - some of the worst in the league. Their only notable victory was a one-point win at home over the Broncos. They lost by seven on the road to the Rams, a team that rates similarly to the Chargers.

The Colts have a bit more to prove before I can back them to win a road game against a good team. The Chargers have their flaws, including plenty of injuries on offense, but they should get a few bodies back on defense. They also have the superior coach and quarterback in this matchup.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Commanders (+1.5)

We have a shootout on deck in Dallas, as the Commanders-Cowboys game has a 54.5 point total, the highest of the week by two points.

The Cowboys' defense is conceding the second-most points this season, giving up monster numbers to the Panthers (30), Packers (40), Bears (31), and Giants (37). Even the feeble Jets managed to score 22 on them. Playing Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense, even without Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, is another recipe for disaster.

Washington's defense certainly isn't strong, but I have some faith that it can slow down Dallas' offense (and the returning CeeDee Lamb) - at least enough to keep it within 1.5 points.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Cardinals (+6.5)

The Packers haven't impressed since Week 2 in their home victory over the Commanders. Since then, they've failed to cover three straight games and are now being asked to win by a touchdown on the road after going 0-1-1 away from Lambeau thus far.

The Cardinals are on a four-game losing skid but haven't lost by more than four points over that span, and two of those defeats came by one point. Jacoby Brissett showed he's not much of a downgrade (if at all) over Kyler Murray, so there's no real concern at quarterback despite Murray's potential absence.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

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