TNF bets: Can Bills solve Texans' stout defense?
We nearly swept the board last Monday to close out Week 11, hitting multiple +200 or greater bets with an easy Cowboys 3.5-point cover. Let's keep the winning streak going with Thursday Night Football's meeting between the Bills and Texans.
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🏈 Pick: Bills (-5.5)
The Texans ruled out C.J. Stroud for this game as the quarterback works his way back from a concussion, meaning Davis Mills gets another start. He's 2-0 as Stroud's replacement after narrowly escaping with a three-point victory over Tennessee last week.
But the Bills aren't the Titans, and they're a huge step up in class compared to both of the squads Mills has beaten. Josh Allen and Co. responded brilliantly to an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins by toppling the Buccaneers by 12 points at home. Allen put the team on his back, rushing for three touchdowns and throwing for a trio of scores. Perhaps Buffalo's 17-point loss to Miami was the wake-up call it needed.
Although the Bills' rush defense is a glaring weakness, I'm not confident the Texans can dominate on the ground. They have a poor offensive line, and Woody Marks and Nick Chubb aren't the most daunting backfield duo. Houston averages just 107.6 rushing yards per game, which sits 23rd in the league.
The Texans' only hope in this contest hinges on their defense - arguably the best in the NFL - limiting Allen to less than three touchdowns. Buffalo ranks fourth in scoring, averaging 29.2 points per game, and on a short week, I'm willing to bet the reigning MVP gets the job done on the road.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+135)
Buffalo's run defense has been atrocious this season, allowing the most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs (14) and ranking 30th in EPA/rush. With Marks emerging as Houston's top running back, getting him at plus odds should be an automatic bet against the Bills on Thursday night.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+260)
Shakir's rough outing last week has inflated his odds for this game. He still leads Buffalo in targets (61), receptions (46), and receiving yards (454) this season. The door should also be open for Shakir to take on a heavy workload on Thursday, since the Bills will be without Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman.
🏈 Bet: Over 34.5 rushing yards
Allen has moved away from using his legs in recent contests, but he's still rushed for 35-plus yards in five of 10 contests this season. He took off six times last week for 40 yards in what felt like a must-win matchup against the Bucs. I'd expect a similar level of effort and desperation in Allen's game to allow him to eclipse this number for a sixth time.
🏈 Bet: Over 2.5 receptions
The Bills stopped using Cook in the passing attack for some unknown reason, but they've since resumed using him over the past two weeks. Cook has eight catches for 90 yards in those two games after he started the year catching three or more passes in three of the first four weeks. Houston's defense is tough to run against, so Buffalo must get creative to get the ball in Cook's hands.
🏈 Bet: Over 19.5 rushing yards
The Texans have given the keys to the backfield to Marks, but they still haven't completely erased Chubb's workload. He rushed for 20-plus yards in three of his past four games, and Houston's expected to rely on its rushing attack to keep Allen off the field while trying to exploit Buffalo's biggest weakness.
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