Boom or Bench: Week 16 start/sit fantasy tips

Congratulations on having a reason to set your lineup this week! We're here with one final edition of Boom or Bench to identify the best and worst matchups at every position as we enter the fantasy semifinals.

QB: Lions' Jared Goff vs. Steelers

Goff has one of the best matchups of the week. Tua Tagovailoa, who's infamous for struggling in cold weather, completed 22 of his 28 attempts for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on the road against Pittsburgh's defense Monday night. It wasn't enough to prevent his benching, but it highlights just how many opportunities Goff and the Lions' significantly better offense should have playing at home against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh has given up the fourth-most passing yards and 23 touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks. The potential absence of superstar T.J. Watt, who missed Monday Night Football after being hospitalized with a partially collapsed lung, would significantly hurt the Steelers' chances of slowing down Detroit's offense.

Despite ultimately dropping the contest, Goff was excellent in the Lions' last game against the Rams. He threw for 338 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions against the Rams' talented defense. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the veteran signal-caller has a similar outing against the Steelers.

Projection: 319 passing yards, 2 TDs

RB: Browns' Quinshon Judkins vs. Bills

This is not the week to bench Judkins. The rookie runner has struggled to the tune of a combined 12.1 half-PPR fantasy points over the last two weeks, but there's no better bounce-back opportunity for running backs than playing the Bills. Buffalo has surrendered the most rushing scores (18) and the third-most rushing yards (1,612) to tailbacks.

Judkins' former college teammate TreVeyon Henderson made the most of his opportunities last week against the Bills. Henderson totaled 148 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries, and he added two receptions for 13 yards, too.

It's unlikely that Judkins has a game quite as explosive as that, but I expect the 22-year-old to find plenty of room to run early and often, especially with frigid temperatures expected in Cleveland this weekend. Judkins has shown that he can explode when he has the chance, as evidenced by his four RB11 or better finishes, including a 26.4-point game against the Dolphins in October.

Projection: 103 rushing yards, 11 receiving yards, 2 receptions, 2 TDs

WR: Cardinals' Michael Wilson vs. Falcons

Wilson has been excellent since being thrust into the WR1 role. The 25-year-old has averaged 18.7 half-PPR points per game over the last five games, and that includes a 5.1-point outing. His chemistry with Jacoby Brissett has played a big role, and I'd feel confident in starting both of them this week.

Brissett has thrown for at least 249 yards in all of his starts, has at least two touchdown passes in all but one, and has attempted 31 or more passes in all but one of those games, too. A similar outing from him will likely mean a strong performance from Wilson.

Facing the Falcons helps those prospects. They've given up 150.4 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, tied for the 11th-most in the league. Atlanta's inability to keep wideouts from reaching the end zone is the bigger appeal, though. Only three teams have surrendered more than the 17 touchdowns that the Falcons have given up to the position.

Projection: 110 receiving yards, TD, 7 receptions

TE: Eagles' Dallas Goedert at Commanders

Washington has given up the third-most touchdowns and sixth-most yards to tight ends. That's translated to the Commanders allowing the fourth-most half-PPR points per game to the position. Giants tight end Theo Johnson had 72 yards on just three receptions a week ago.

Goedert is fresh off a 22-point game against the Raiders. Las Vegas has actually been one of the best defenses at guarding tight ends, ranking fourth in the NFL at preventing the position from scoring fantasy points. The 30-year-old had 70 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions, and he should've had a third score if not for a drop in the end zone. He should be able to find pay dirt at least once with this notably better matchup.

Projection: 52 receiving yards, 6 receptions, TD

QB: Giants' Jaxson Dart vs. Vikings

Only two teams have surrendered fewer passing touchdowns than the Vikings, and they've conceded just one rushing score to quarterbacks. Dart, who has been very reliant on his rushing ability, is unlikely to find nearly as much room to run against Brian Flores' defense, as Minnesota has only allowed quarterbacks to run for 16 yards per game.

The Vikings are tied for 11th in team sacks, and they have 14 takeaways, too. Dart has been sacked on 8.33% of his dropbacks, but he's done a decent job of protecting the ball with just four interceptions and four fumbles in his nine starts. That might prevent him from being one of the outright worst quarterbacks of the week, but it doesn't change the fact he'll probably get hit quite a bit thanks to that sack rate and his desire to run the ball.

Things look dire even if he does get good protection from his offensive line. Minnesota has allowed just 180.4 passing yards per game, which ranks fifth in the NFL. Dart is averaging just over 200 passing yards per start, and he has just one game with 250 or more passing yards.

Projection: 186 passing yards, TD, INT, 28 rushing yards

RB: Steelers' Jaylen Warren at Lions

Warren finished with a lower snap share, fewer carries, fewer touches, and fewer yards than teammate Kenneth Gainwell on Monday night. Warren had 48 yards on 15 touches compared to Gainwell's 126 yards on 20 touches. That disparity would give me pause no matter who the Steelers were playing.

Pittsburgh's opponent being the Lions only makes things worse. Detroit has surrendered the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game and just nine scrimmage touchdowns. The Lions are also the No. 2 team in limiting receiving yards to tailbacks. That spells worry for Warren (and also Gainwell).

The final piece of this bust puzzle is that Warren simply hasn't been especially effective for some time. He's had some adequate performances, but he's only scored 15 or more half-PPR points on two occasions this year. It's unlikely that he will turn things around Sunday.

Projection: 28 rushing yards, 19 receiving yards, 2 receptions

WR: Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle vs. Bengals

The Bengals have played well against wide receivers, despite their overall struggles on defense. They've conceded the fourth-fewest receiving yards and touchdowns to the position in addition to the second-fewest receptions.

Waddle has been held to 52 or fewer receiving yards in his last four games. He's been reliant on touchdowns for the majority of the season, finishing no better than WR17 without a score. While that 17th-ranked finish is far from the worst outcome, he has five games as WR47 or worse.

And then there's the matter of who is going to be throwing Waddle the ball Sunday. Rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers will make his first career start against the Bengals. The seventh-rounder out of Texas has only attempted eight passes this year, completing five of them for 53 yards, but he also took two sacks on his 10 dropbacks.

Projection: 40 receiving yards, 3 receptions

TE: Vikings' T.J. Hockenson at Giants

Hockenson is a difficult player to trust this week. He hasn't finished with double-digit half-PPR fantasy points since Week 3, and that's the only time the 28-year-old has done so this campaign. He's hovered around the 8.5-point mark the last three weeks in matchups that were great to above average.

The Giants aren't in that category: They rank ninth or better in receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed to tight ends. That all comes together to make the Giants the No. 8 defense at defending tight ends and make this a bad spot for Hockenson.

Projection: 29 receiving yards, 4 receptions

Andrew Dixon is a contributing fantasy analyst for theScore.