MNF bets: Can Rivers, Colts hang tough vs. 49ers?
Phillip Rivers is still starting in prime-time games in 2025. If you told me that five years ago, there's no chance I would have believed you, but here we are for what should be Rivers' prime-time send-off. His Colts host the 49ers and are 5.5-point underdogs to Brock Purdy's group, which clinched a playoff spot Sunday thanks to the Lions' loss to the Steelers.
Here is our pick against the spread, touchdown scorer bets, and player props for Monday Night Football.
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π Pick: 49ers (-5.5)
Sorry, Colts fans, but I don't see a scenario where backing Rivers getting fewer than seven points makes sense. Yes, the Colts played well in his first start in Seattle, but the Seahawks did the bare minimum to secure the win and quickly turned their attention to the Thursday nighter against the Rams (and that strategy worked out).
The 49ers have nearly secured their playoff spot, but they also have a shot at winning their division after the Rams' loss. Motivation will not be a question for San Francisco, while it could be for the Colts, whose season has taken a drastic turn for the worse amid a four-game losing streak.
The 49ers average the fourth-most passing yards per game (246.1) while the Colts give up the second-most (247.6). Purdy and a healthy crop of receiving options should be able to pick apart a bad Colts secondary that will be without Sauce Gardner for the fourth straight game.
The Rivers story was nice for a week, but I think his age and four-year absence from the NFL get exposed in this matchup against a hungry 49ers side.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+155)
With Ricky Pearsall out again, Jennings should be the 49ers' top wideout. He leads San Francisco in routes run (171) and receiving touchdowns (six) since Nov. 1. The Colts have allowed the fourth-most receptions and sixth-most yards to wide receivers this season, and Gardner, their best corner, has been ruled out.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+250)
Warren leads the Colts in red-zone targets (13) and touchdowns (four) this season. The rookie tight end rarely leaves the field, playing over 86% of the offensive snaps over his last eight games. Shane Steichen needs to get creative with Rivers starting at quarterback, and Warren is a mismatch nightmare for opposing defenses.
π Bet: Over: 3.5 receptions
Rivers targeted a running back on 9 of 27 passing attempts last week in Seattle. Taylor caught three of those attempts, and Ameer Abdullah caught five. I don't expect the Colts to be as competitive in this game as they were with the Seahawks, meaning the Colts won't have the luxury of taking their best player off the field. Taylor should see an uptick in usage in the passing game since Abdullah is unlikely to be as involved on third downs.
π Bet: Under 27.5 receiving yards
Downs caught three passes for 13 yards last week in Rivers' first start. He's failed to surpass this total in four of his past five games. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Indianapolis: Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, and Alec Pierce are all competing for targets. Downs' role is diminished with Rivers under center since the Colts no longer have a mid-range passing attack.
π Bet: Under 17.5 rushing attempts
McCaffrey's had 17 or fewer rushing attempts in four of his last six games, and the 49ers shouldn't overwork him now that they've clinched a playoff spot. They're unlikely to catch the Seahawks to win the NFC West, so putting their best player at risk wouldn't be wise. Additionally, the Colts are difficult to run on, allowing only 95.1 rush yards per game (fourth fewest in the league). If the 49ers get a comfortable lead, I'd expect Brian Robinson Jr. to get involved to keep McCaffrey healthy.
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