Saturday NFL betting: Will Ravens keep playoff hopes alive vs. Packers?
The NFL's holiday lineup continues with two games Saturday. Unlike the Christmas Day schedule, this mini-slate features meaningful matchups with playoff implications. The Chargers welcome the Texans to town, while the Ravens visit Lambeau Field for a meeting with the Packers.
Let's get to our picks against the spread, touchdown scorer bets, and favorite player props for the two-game slate.
π Check out all of the markets available for Saturday's slate on theScore Bet here
π Pick: Texans (+1.5)
The market views these two teams as fairly close but suggests the Chargers are slightly better by making them lay 2.5 points at home. I don't believe that's the case.
The Texans' defense is the best unit in this game by a wide margin - it's rated as the best defense in the league, according to SumerSports' expected points added per play (EPA/play). The Chargers' defense is tied for seventh in the league, which is still really good but not quite as much of a difference-maker. Plus, the Chargers' offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL, while the Texans have Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter to cause problems for Justin Herbert.
I expect this to be a low-scoring affair, so I'll side with the better defensive team and hope Houston can win the turnover battle.
π Pick: Ravens (+4.5)
Tyler Huntley gets the nod for the Ravens with Lamar Jackson sidelined due to a back injury. On the other side of the field, Jordan Love and Malik Willis are both questionable. Love has yet to clear concussion protocol and is also dealing with a left shoulder injury. Willis will be ready to play through his own right shoulder injury if Love can't go.
The Packers have clinched a playoff spot, so rushing Love back at less than 100% doesn't seem smart. This line assumes Love starts, because there's no way Willis deserves to be a 4.5-point favorite.
I'll side with the Ravens, who are fighting for their playoff lives and will be eliminated with a loss.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+145)
Houston's defense ranks first in EPA/dropback and second in pass success rate while allowing the second-fewest touchdowns to opposing wideouts. It's going to be tough sledding for Herbert and this air attack, so we'll go with Hampton, who's set for a heavy workload with Kimani Vidal banged up. The Texans' weakness is their inability to hold teams when they're inside the 20-yard line: They rank 23rd in red-zone defense this year.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+275)
Schultz has been massive for the Texans of late, hauling in 23 of 26 targets for 188 yards over their last four games. He's scored in back-to-back contests, and these are great odds for a player who's heavily involved in Houston's game plan.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+100)
It's hard to trust anyone other than Henry to score in this game with Tyler Huntley set to start. The bruising tailback has six touchdowns in his last six games, and you get great odds here with Lamar Jackson on the sidelines.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+225)
With Christian Watson questionable and Josh Jacobs clearly not 100%, Doubs is the best pick on Green Bay's offense. He was Malik Willis' favorite target last week, hauling in 86 yards and a touchdown. No matter who the Packers' starting signal-caller is, Doubs provides good value here.
π Bet: Under 31.5 pass attempts
While Herbert's in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career, he's still not a super high-volume passer. He's only reached the 32-pass mark in one of his last eight games. The Chargers rely on a balanced offensive attack, and this week against the Texans is not the time to stick to the air. Houston allows the fewest total yards per game; a reliable running game will be necessary to move the chains.
π Bet: Over 12.5 rushing yards
Stroud's rushing has tailed off as the season has progressed: He averaged 23.6 rushing yards through the first eight games and only 3.75 in the last four. This could be the matchup where he shows off his mobility. The Chargers have an elite defense, but they stop the pass more effectively than the run, creating opportunities for Stroud to use his legs.
π Bet: Over 73.5 rushing yards
Henry is averaging 107 rushing yards over his last three contests. Without Jackson, the Ravens will rely on their ground game. This is a must-win for Baltimore's playoff hopes, meaning the Ravens will feed Henry more carries than usual if necessary.
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