Super Bowl simulation: How betting lines expect Seahawks-Patriots to unfold
We've all heard of the Madden simulation, but how about a betting-line sim?
Betting lines provide some of the most accurate projections for how games will play out. How often do you see the score finish exactly where the spread closed? Or a player prop coming up a yard short? Of course, those outcomes stick in our memories because of the narrow margin between a win and a loss, but they do happen fairly often.
We're here to break down how Super Bowl LX will unfold using betting lines available at theScore Bet to predict the game's most likely outcome and how players will perform.
π Check out all of the Super Bowl markets available on theScore Bet here
Final score
The Seahawks beating the Patriots 26-20 is the most likely outcome, according to the betting lines. We used each team's total to reach this final score, which has Seattle covering the 4.5-point spread to hoist its second Lombardi Trophy.
Seattle's team total is set at 25.5, with the over and under both at -115 odds. However, New England doesn't have a balanced team total; its under 20.5 carries -130 odds and over 19.5 sits at -135. Therefore, the Patriots are likely to score 20 points. And since 25 is an uncommon score, we'll give the Seahawks 26 points, putting our sim's total at 46. The Super Bowl's over/under is currently set at 45.5.
| Team | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26 |
| Patriots | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Seattle scores the first touchdown, and Kenneth Walker III is the one to punch it in. Walker is the +400 favorite to record the game's first touchdown. The Seahawks are -160 favorites on the moneyline to lead after the first quarter, while the Patriots are -150 to score at least a field goal in the opening frame.
Rhamondre Stevenson reaches the end zone for New England's first touchdown during the second quarter, which is projected to be the highest-scoring quarter with an over/under of 13.5 points. Sam Darnold responds by throwing his first passing touchdown to AJ Barner, putting Seattle up 14-10 at halftime.
The third quarter's projected points are 9.5, so we'll assume both teams score only field goals as the contest tightens up defensively. The Seahawks lead 20-13 entering the fourth.
In the fourth quarter, Hunter Henry adds New England's second touchdown, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba records Seattle's third. Henry (+210) is the second-most likely Patriot to score a touchdown, as is Smith-Njigba (-105) for the Seahawks.
The Seahawks' third score hits their over of 2.5 total touchdowns. However, Jason Myers misses the extra point, leaving Seattle at 26 points while giving Drake Maye an opportunity to win the Super Bowl on the final possession.
But, in dramatic fashion, Maye is intercepted on the following drive, clinching the Seahawks' Super Bowl victory. Maye is -145 to throw at least one interception, and he's thrown a pick in two of three games this postseason.
Box score
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | Comp/Att | Yards | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/29 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Carries | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 74 | 1 |
| George Holani | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Recs | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 94 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| George Holani | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Darnold goes well under his passing yards prop of 231.5 because we're limiting Seattle's pass-catchers to their respective receiving yards props. Darnold completing 20 of 29 passes is spot-on with his current props, though, and we'll side with the over 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Smith-Njigba leads the game in receiving yards by a wide margin, but Walker edges him in total yards. Both are viable candidates to win MVP, but they'll need to outperform their projections to do so.
π Check out all Super Bowl player props available on theScore Bet here
Patriots
Passing
| Player | Comp/Att | Yards | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/30 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Carries | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 15 | 51 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 5 | 19 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Recs | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 4 | 0 |
The Seahawks' stifling defense keeps the Patriots' offense in check. New England's pass-catchers have low receiving yards totals. That puts Maye at just 186 passing yards for the game, under his prop of 220.5. The second-year signal-caller adds 38 yards on the ground, but no one else contributes in a major way.
MVP
Darnold claims Super Bowl MVP despite not having jaw-dropping numbers. Due to the nature of using betting lines as projections, it's tough to predict the type of outlier performance that's typically needed to win the game's top individual honor.
Darnold is the favorite to earn the award. If he throws two touchdowns without turning the ball over in a winning effort, he should cash tickets for anyone who bet on him at +115.
π Check out all the Super Bowl MVP odds on theScore Bet here
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