Free Agency Forecast: Where the top 20 defensive free agents should sign
The NFL's free agency period is set to kick into full swing on March 11 and teams will no doubt be scrambling to get their hands on the best available players. Here are 20 from the defensive side of the ball that should draw plenty of interest.
20. Charles Tillman - CB
Tillman is now 33 years of age, but that doesn't mean he can't add value in the right situation. His speed obviously isn't what it once was, but the strength of Tillman's game has always been in creating turnovers as opposed to coverage. Injuries limited him to just eight games last year, but he totaled five defensive touchdowns in his previous two full campaigns. Tillman has an innate ability to punch the ball loose from a receiver or running back's hands, and creating turnovers is something every team could use more of.
Ideal fit: Buccaneers
Lovie Smith has a familiarity with Tillman from their days in Chicago and he could pair nicely opposite Darrelle Revis. At the very least, Tillman could provide a big boost to Tampa's nickel package and a passing defense that was only mediocre last season. (As long as they can convince him to put on one of those atrocious new jerseys.)
Other potential suitors: Redskins, Chargers, Packers
19. Henry Melton - DT
Melton was quickly establishing himself as one of the more dominant defensive tackles in the game before a torn ACL ended his season in week 3 of the 2013 season. Melton had combined for 13 sacks the previous two years, which isn't an easy task playing on the interior of the defensive line. Melton is a little undersized for his position at 6-foot-3 and under 300 pounds, but he uses his quickness to squeeze through lanes and get to the quarterback.
Ideal fit: Bears
The Bears' defense finished dead last against the run and in sacks without Melton last season. Those numbers are going to improve if they re-sign him and, frankly, they can't afford not to.
Other potential suitors: Texans, Falcons, Jaguars
18. Sam Shields - CB
Shields was converted to corner from wide receiver at the University of Miami, so it's no surprise he has tremendous ball skills. Shields uses his long arms to make some spectacular interceptions and it's always a risk for any quarterback to throw his way. He has shown an ability to perform best when it matters most, as he has recorded four postseason picks for the Packers.
Ideal fit: Saints
The Saints finished third-worst in the NFC last year with just 12 interceptions, and Shields could definitely help the team improve on that number. Keenan Lewis played fairly well in 2013, but they could use an upgrade on the other side.
Other potential suitors: Packers, Redskins, Chargers
17. Justin Tuck - DE
The Giants have indicated they are planning to let Tuck test the free agent waters, and with the way he finished 2013, he may not be available for long. Some thought Tuck was on the downside of his career after he managed just 1.5 sacks in his first 10 games last season, but he closed with 9.5 in his final six contests. The 11 total at the age of 30 ranks as the third best output of his career.
Ideal fit: Giants
If you subtracted Tuck's sacks from the Giants' lineup in 2013, they would easily have had the fewest in the league. With Jason Pierre-Paul seemingly in a constant battle to stay healthy, it would be crazy for the G-Men to not at least see if Tuck, a guy who played an integral role in two New York Super Bowl wins, would be willing to return at a hometown discount.
Other potential suitors: Jaguars, Falcons, Bears
16. Shaun Phillips - DE
The Broncos grabbed Phillips on a one-year, $1 million deal for the 2013 season, and it sure paid off. Phillips posted 10 much-needed sacks as Von Miller missed seven games between an injury and a suspension, and was an important contributor on a defense that struggled with consistency for much of the year. More than half of Phillips' sacks came when Miller was out of the lineup, proving he can still get to the quarterback without another premier pass-rusher on the other side absorbing double teams.
Ideal fit: Falcons
The Falcons ranked second-last in 2013 when it came to sacks, and in a division that boasts Drew Brees and Cam Newton behind center, that's not going to cut it. If Atlanta doesn't add a pass rusher that can put opposing offenses behind in the down and distance every once and awhile, it's going to be another long season for the Falcons.
Other potential suitors: Bears, Jaguars, Raiders
15. Jason Hatcher - DT
If you thought the Cowboys' defense was ugly last season, wait until you take a look at their cap situation. Even with the team's recent restructuring to free up cap space, it's going to be a challenge to re-sign Hatcher. He tallied 11 sacks last year, besting his previous high of 4.5, and Pro Football Focus had him pegged as the NFL's eighth best defensive tackle. That ranking jumps up to fourth when it comes to rushing the passer and, after making his first Pro Bowl, Hatcher is in for a big raise. Unless Jerry Jones spent the last two months taking night school courses on how to dig yourself out of disastrous contract mistakes, expect Hatcher to be leaving Big D.
Ideal fit: Bears
The Bears were tied for last in sacks last year and Julius Peppers had a down season. Hatcher could help them get to the quarterback and at the very least occupy blockers on the inside to free up space for Peppers or other pass rushers on the outside.
Other potential suitors: Falcons, Jaguars, Cowboys
14. Alterraun Verner - CB
Verner may have just 10 interceptions in his four-year career, but the picks aren't the whole story. The UCLA product led the NFL with 27 passes defended in 2013 and was the main reason the Titans finished 11th overall against the pass. Verner also has a tremendous ability to locate the football in coverage, to go along with above-average ball skills. He may not be one of the league's elite corners yet, but with his athleticism and continued development, it shouldn't take long.
Ideal fit: Chargers
The Chargers gave up over 4,100 yards through the air in 2013 and are desperate for help at the corner position. None of San Diego's top three corners, Richard Marshall, Shareece Wright and Derek Cox, were even ranked in the top 100 at their position last year, according to Pro Football Focus.
Other potential suitors: Eagles, Redskins, Vikings, Raiders
13. Donte Whitner - SS
When he's not racking up 15-yard penalties, Whitner can be a pretty effective player in the secondary. Pro Football Focus rated him as fifth-best safety in the league when it came to pass coverage and he also ranked in the top 10 against the run, proving he is a complete player. Whitner might be downgraded a bit because sometimes his style of play is reckless, leading him to rival Mark Cuban for the most fined man in sports. However, if he keeps it under control, Whitner can be a difference-maker separating receivers from the football.
Ideal fit: Colts
If the Colts can't re-sign impending free agent Antoine Bethea, they are going to leave themselves very thin at safety. In a conference where your Super Bowl hopes hinge on going through Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, your secondary better be up to par.
Other potential suitors: 49ers, Lions, Eagles, Cowboys
12. Randy Starks - DT
Starks is one of the best interior defensive lineman in the game today. With his ability to play the run and get to the passer, he's a valuable commodity to have around. Starks' play is not always going to show up in the box score, but his talents make others around him better. Look no further than Dolphins linebacker Philip Wheeler, who racked up 118 tackles last year, thanks in part to Starks occupying offensive lineman and leaving him free to bring down runners.
Ideal fit: Jaguars
The Jags gave up over 2,100 yards on the ground in 2013, so they could surely find some use for Starks. Not to mention that he should create even more space for inside linebacker Paul Posluszny, who finished second in combined tackles last season in the entire league.
Other potential suitors: Falcons, Patriots, Packers, Colts
11. Brandon Spikes - ILB
Spikes isn't the fastest linebacker by any stretch of the imagination, but he may be the best when it comes to stopping the run. What he lacks in speed he makes up for with an ability to stop a running back on first contact, and he would work well in both a 4-3 and 3-4 scheme. Spikes is a great tackler and doesn't give up a lot of extra yardage to backs that have a knack for falling forward to pick up those hidden yards.
Ideal fit: Browns
You'd have better luck squeezing a nickel out of Ebenezer Scrooge than getting the Patriots to pay market value for an asset, meaning if Spikes hits the open market he's likely going to get a more lucrative offer somewhere else. Cleveland has plenty of cap space and recently cut linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, so there's a need to be filled.
Other potential suitors: Broncos, Redskins, Packers, Giants
10. Lamarr Houston - DE
Houston, much like any Raider player in the past decade, doesn't receive a whole lot of attention, although he is quickly developing into one of the best defensive ends in the game. Houston may have only recorded six sacks last season, but you may as well double that number when you consider he was stuck playing in that sub-par Oakland defensive unit. Not to mention two of those sacks came against Peyton Manning, who was only taken down 18 times on the year, fewest among full-time starters. Houston is durable as demonstrated by his not missing a game in four seasons, and he proved he is an every-down defensive end in 2013, playing the fourth-most snaps at the position.
Ideal fit: Raiders
The Raiders have been abysmal in the draft over the last 10 years, so letting one of their few drafted talents go seems unthinkable. Houston is a Pro Bowler in the making and Oakland could sure use a few of those.
Other potential suitors: Bears, Falcons, Jaguars
9. Michael Bennett - DE
Bennett has totaled 17 sacks over the last two seasons and was a key component in the Seahawks' run to the Super Bowl. Putting pressure on the quarterback is why he's going to get paid very shortly, but Bennett's ability to defend the run should not be overlooked. Pro Football Focus graded him in the top 10 against the run among defensive ends in 2013, a critical part of the position that never receives enough attention.
Ideal fit: Seahawks
The Seahawks cutting fellow defensive end Red Bryant should be a good indication they want to bring Bennett back. Seattle's excellent secondary forces quarterbacks to frequently hold the ball too long, leading to coverage sacks. What defensive end wouldn't want to play in that situation?
Other potential suitors: Falcons, Bears, Eagles, Jaguars
8. T.J. Ward - SS
Ward emerged for the Browns last year as one of the top safeties in the game and brings an all-around skill set to the field. Pro Football Focus rated him as the third best safety overall in 2013 and that number jumped up to first when it came to playing the run. Granted, someone like Jairus Byrd may be better in coverage, but if you can pair Ward's run stopping ability at the strong safety position with a free safety who can defend the pass, your secondary will quickly be feared league-wide.
Ideal fit: Browns
Cleveland has quietly developed a roster with some real talent, a feat not seen since maybe the late 80's. They have already released linebacker D'Qwell Jackson and letting Ward go is tantamount to setting up new head coach Mike Pettine to fail. Then again, it is the Browns.
Other potential suitors: Eagles, Lions, Raiders
7. Karlos Dansby - ILB
At 32, Dansby arguably had the best season of his career in Arizona last year, making 122 tackles and grabbing four interceptions. What makes him stand out from other linebackers is his ability in pass coverage, as he is one of the best interior linebackers in that department. With more and more teams featuring a heavy dose of tight ends like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski in their passing attack, if you don't have a linebacker that can cover you'll be in for some long Sundays.
Ideal fit: Broncos
Lost in the shuffle of Peyton Manning putting up numbers last season like a gamer playing "Madden" on beginner was the fact that the Broncos had a defense that gave up a ton of yards and points. With Wesley Woodyard headed for free agency, Dansby would be an upgrade.
Other potential suitors: Cardinals, Ravens, Titans
6. Vontae Davis - CB
Davis has developed into one of the more underrated corners in league and after a season that saw him play at an elite level, he is in for a big payday. You may notice Davis had just one interception in 2013, but ranking corners solely on picks is a little misleading. Pro Football Focus had him ranked as the third-best corner in coverage last season, likely meaning his lack of interceptions was largely due to quarterbacks not throwing in Davis' direction because of good coverage.
Ideal fit: Raiders
The Raiders were dreadful in pass coverage last year. Stunning, right? Oakland also has more cap space than anyone at the moment, with nearly $65 million available to spend on free agents. Mike Jenkins and Tracy Porter struggled mightily last season and 2013 first-round pick D.J. Hayden is still developing, so bringing in Davis would be wise.
Other potential suitors: Giants, Colts, Jets
5. Jared Allen - DE
Allen may be north of 30 years old, but he can still get to the passer as well as anybody in the league. Allen racked up 11.5 sacks last season on a Vikings defense that finished 31st overall. He has at least 11 sacks in eight of his 10 seasons, and that of course includes 2011 when he posted a whopping 22. In a league where disrupting the quarterback is paramount, until Allen's play drops off considerably there should be plenty of teams lining up to sign him.
Ideal fit: Falcons
There's no question the Falcons need a major overhaul in their pass rush. Osi Umenyiora arrived last season and posted a decent 7.5 sacks, but it was far from enough. Pairing Allen and Umenyiora would create some mismatches for each and be beneficial for both parties.
Other potential suitors: Seahawks, Jaguars, Bears
4. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - CB
DRC's debut in Denver last year was a successful one after the team took a chance on him with a one-year deal. Rodgers-Cromartie has great recovery speed if he ever gets beat and his ability to close on a receiver once the ball is in the air is what separates him from others at his position. He's more physical than he's given credit for and isn't afraid to be aggressive at the line of scrimmage, blowing up quick screens to receivers which seem to be a staple of many offenses these days.
Ideal fit: Broncos
The Broncos need to bring Rodgers-Cromartie back with Chris Harris coming off ACL surgery and the release of Champ Bailey. Denver's defense wasn't great in 2013, and without Rodgers-Cromartie things are only going to get worse before they get better.
3. Michael Johnson - DE
Johnson is arguably the most well-rounded defensive end in the league today. His pass rushing ability is good, but it's his work against the run that puts him in a class of his own. Many defensive ends don't offer a ton of value outside of pass rushing, but Johnson helped solidify a top-five Bengal defense against the run in 2013 that was missing defensive tackle Geno Atkins for half the year. Johnson is a freak athlete at 6-foot-7 and 270 pounds, making his versatility invaluable.
Ideal fit: Patriots
The Pats were woeful in defending the run last season and Johnson is the type of athlete that could fit in a few different spots on their defense. Granted, New England isn't exactly known for shelling out money come free agency, but Johnson is one talent they may make an exception for.
Other potential suitors: Jaguars, Giants, Raiders
2. Jairus Byrd - FS
Byrd earned himself his third Pro Bowl berth in five years last season, but it doesn't look like it will earn him a contract extension with the Bills. The two sides are reportedly far apart on a deal, making it likely that Byrd will be wearing a different uniform in 2014. Whoever gets him is going to acquire a ball hawk that has averaged over four interceptions a year so far in his NFL career. Injuries limited Byrd to 11 games in 2013, yet he still managed four picks. He's not quite on Earl Thomas' level, but he's close. Just the fact that you can make a comparison between the two says a lot about Byrd's talents.
Ideal fit: Dolphins
Bills fans will be angrier than an old man trying to send soup back in a deli if Byrd ends up with division rival Miami. However, if Chris Clemons leaves the Dolphins via free agency, Byrd could easily step in. With the re-signing of Brent Grimes at corner, adding Byrd would give the Dolphins a very potent secondary.
Other potential suitors: Colts, Eagles, Redskins
1. Aqib Talib - CB
Talib is a rare shutdown corner that has the ability to almost eliminate the opposition's top receiver. Some of his best work last year includes holding A.J. Green to five catches and 61 yards, Jimmy Graham without a single reception, and helping to limit Peyton Manning to 150 yards passing, his lowest total of the season. When Talib was injured early in the rematch with the Broncos in the AFC title game, Manning lit it up for 400 yards. Translation: Talib was extremely important to the Patriots.
Ideal fit: Redskins
The Redskins have already re-signed corner DeAngelo Hall, but they will need more help in the secondary to compete in the NFC East. In a division that boasts Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz, Talib would have an immediate impact.
Other potential suitors: Patriots, Colts, Jets