Which head coaches will be fired in 2014?

Job security is something that barely exists for NFL coaches. Losing a lot is the easiest way to enter unemployment, but there are other options.

Are you a coordinator or position coach, and the head coach you work under was just canned? Congrats, you’re fired too. Did your team just change ownership, and the new rich man who signs the paychecks wants his guys? See ya. Is your quarterback John Skelton? Better dust off those no job pajama pants.

The only sure way to avoid getting fired is to win enough football games to keep suited men happy and badgering their eyeglass cleaner instead. With OTAs ongoing now and most coaching staffs getting to work with their entire team in a practice environment for the first time since last season ended, this week marks both the unofficial beginning of a new season, and the start of that long fight against the firing line.

Who needs to fight and claw the hardest, and whose job status will start leaning towards doom if losses mount in 2014? Mostly, these guys...

Jason Garrett

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has said many glowing, wonderful words about Jason Garrett, most of which require an ambiguous language decoder. Back in March he said another year without the playoffs wouldn’t necessarily end in Garrett’s dismissal, but a month before that Jones also said he’s always carefully evaluating his coaches.

Adding another layer of oddness to this situation beyond deciphering Jones is that if Garrett isn’t back with the Cowboys for the 2015 season, it might not be because of a firing. It could just be a...not re-hiring?

Garrett is entering the final season of his current contract, dubbed the “lame duck” year. When a coach’s future status is uncertain because of an expiring contract, that doesn’t exactly lead to optimal job performance, which is why a lame duck year is uncommon territory.

But it’s a status Garrett has earned by fielding consistently average teams. The Cowboys have finished with an even 8-8 record in three straight seasons, missing the playoffs each time after losing a Week 17 game to decide the NFC East. With a 29-27 overall record as a head coach, Garrett hasn’t earned a firing yet, but he also hasn’t banked enough trust for a long-term commitment.

He’s just existing right now, and despite those wonderful words coming from his owner’s mouth, it’s difficult to see a future where missing the playoffs five straight years doesn’t end in Garrett’s dismissal (or his “firing” by default without a new contract).

Already in May much of Garrett’s control over his fate has evaporated. With Sean Lee gone, the Cowboys will again have one of the league’s worst defenses, and weekly shootouts will be required to remain competitive.

Doug Marrone

This seems especially unfair at first. How can a coach’s seat reach even a lukewarm temperature if he’s only entering his second season on the job, and for a good chunk of his first season something called a Thad Lewis was the Buffalo Bills quarterback?

Ownership, that’s how. Different ownership.

Or more accurately, any ownership. After the passing of Ralph Wilson the Bills are in a state of transition, with the team officially hitting the market and entertaining prospective buyers in about a month.

That doesn’t mean Marrone and general manager Doug Whaley will meet their certain doom. But it does bring the potential for a swift house cleaning, because generally a new ownership group wants to succeed (or fail) with the men they hired, and the decisions they made. Doing either of those things with someone else’s men feels icky.

Consequently there’s an even greater emphasis on winning immediately, and disregarding any team building that stretches beyond 2014. That’s why Whaley made the bold move and sacrifice to draft Sammy Watkins, giving up first- and fourth-round selections in 2015.

If Whaley’s gamble results in the Bills advancing to the playoffs for the first time since 1999 under Marrone’s guidance, the groundswell of fan support earned by both would make firing either mighty difficult.

Right now optimism is exceedingly high, with 44,000 season tickets already sold...in May.

Dennis Allen

Desperation is reaching excessive levels in Oakland, too, where the Raiders haven’t advanced to the post-season since a time when Nelly was telling us that, yes, it is indeed hot in herre (2002).

Though they’ve had the glory of a .500 season twice between then and now, the Raiders haven’t finished above that mark once over those 11 seasons. It’s a truly unique brand of stink, because now after an offseason when general manager Reggie McKenzie spent much of his league high salary cap space assembling a 2010 all-star team (led by Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and Maurice Jones-Drew), Dennis Allen is left to save his job with Matt Schaub as his starting quarterback, and Derek Carr the project behind him.

This will shock you, but not having a quarterback hasn’t worked well for Allen through two seasons. After the statue that is Carson Palmer was jettisoned, Allen was forced to take a spin on the Terrelle Pryor carousel, and his 57.4 completion percentage. Then it was Matt McGloin’s turn, which also ended in fiery awfulness (55.9 completion percentage).

If Schaub really is on deck now because Carr isn’t ready, Allen and McKenzie won’t be Raiders employees for much longer.

Joe Philbin

It’s a rare day when a head coach survives a general manager swap, but Joe Philbin is a rare sort of man. He had a team crumbling beneath his feet through a bullying scandal that ripped apart the Dolphins’ offensive line, and led to Ryan Tannehill lying rather uncomfortably on his back 58 times. Yet Philbin claims he knew nothing.

Onwards then, and the Dolphins are trying to do that with an improved offensive line through the additions of Brandon Albert and first-round pick Ja’Wuan James. So Philbin can feel a little better in that regard, and he can also rest easy knowing that his offensive coordinator is no longer Mike Sherman, who criminally misused Mike Wallace.

Now that job belongs to the awesomely named Bill Lazor, who’s set to bring the Eagles’ uptempo offense (sooo trendy right now) to Miami. That’s great, because if the Dolphins don’t make the playoffs after a season when they won their first three games and then lost six of the next eight, more changes are coming.