Fantasy: The complete guide to a perfect draft

It's a stretch to say you can win a fantasy football league by having a great draft. In-season roster management is still crucial to success. But it's not a stretch to say you can lose your league with a bad draft. If your top picks prove to be busts and you failed to secure depth behind them, you might as well pack it in and start planning for next season. 

How do you ensure you emerge from your draft with a team that's ready to compete for glory? Keep reading to find out. 

We'll begin with some fundamental fantasy strategy and move on to more advanced stuff at the end. Feel free to skip ahead if you're a seasoned player (i.e., someone who's never drafted a kicker before the last round).

(Note: Most advice in this article is for 12-team leagues with standard scoring. Advice specific to smaller/larger leagues and leagues that use PPR scoring is included where applicable.)

Basic Value-Based Strategies

Quarterback

The NFL's shift toward pass-happy offenses has created the deepest pool of quarterbacks in the history of fantasy football. There's a clear tier of three quarterbacks at the top this year - Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers - and they are worthy of selection in the late first round or early second (especially in leagues that award six points for passing touchdowns). After that trio goes off the board, however, the smart move this year is to wait and select your quarterback late in the draft. 

Jay Cutler, Cam Newton and Tony Romo are being drafted in the seventh and eighth rounds on average. All three are fine QB1s this season. Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger are being drafted outside the top 12 quarterbacks (making them backups in standard leagues), yet both are acceptable starters for teams that loaded up on skill position players early in the draft. 

Consider waiting until very late in your draft and taking two quarterbacks to deploy in a QB-by-committee approach (just make sure they don't have the same bye week). You can read more on this approach in the advanced strategies section.

Tight End

Like quarterback, the best strategy this year is to use an early draft pick to secure one of the top-tier players at tight end - Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron - or to wait until very late in your draft to select two high-upside tight ends to deploy in a committee attack. Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert and Ladarius Green stand out as excellent potential values in the late rounds. 

Running Back and Wide Receiver

Your primary goal in fantasy football is to create a roster filled with a mix of skill position players with high floors and high ceilings. This typically means undervalued veterans who produce strong weekly numbers regardless of how their real-life situation changes (like Andre Johnson, who finished as WR12 last season despite horrendous quarterback play in Houston) and young players poised to break out if the stars align around them (like Eddie Lacy, whom the Packers force-fed the ball while Aaron Rodgers was injured). 

Always use the vast majority of your backup slots on running backs and wide receivers. Unless you're using a committee approach at quarterback or tight end, don't waste a bench spot on a backup at those positions. 

Don't be afraid to draft a third running back (a backup in most leagues) before you draft a starting quarterback or tight end. Running back is the most scarce position in fantasy football and also one of the most volatile. Adding depth at the position not only puts your team in a better chance to succeed, it also damages your opponents' chances.

Kicker

Never draft a kicker before the last round of your draft. Slightly favor those who play on good offenses and in domes or warm-weather climates. Don't be afraid to stream kickers on a weekly basis. 

Defense/Special Teams

Aside from kicker, this is the most volatile position in fantasy football. Don't be the guy who overdrafts the Seattle Seahawks DST in the middle rounds. The Seahawks will probably be a top fantasy defense again this season, but the unit isn't worth taking when it means you miss on a potential breakout like Kelvin Benjamin, Rueben Randle or Carlos Hyde (all of whom are being drafted after Seattle on average). 

In general, you should plan to wait  until late in your draft to select your team defense and move forward with a plan to drop-and-add at the position every week based on matchups.

If you already know your draft slot, preparing for your draft is much easier. 

Advanced Strategies

"Zero RB"

The brainchild of fantasy writer Shawn Siegele, the Zero RB theory says that running backs are too risky to take in the early rounds because they are too prone to busting. Instead, Zero RB drafters use their early picks on "sure things" (or as close to sure things as there are in the fantasy football world) at wide receiver, tight end and quarterback and then load up on "lottery ticket" running backs in the later rounds in hopes that two or three will break out. 

Consider last season as a good example of why Zero RB can make sense. The consensus top four running backs last season were Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Arian Foster and C.J. Spiller. Only one of those players, Peterson, wasn't a bust. At the same time, three running backs who were selected well after the first round - Knowshon Moreno, Eddie Lacy and Fred Jackson - all finished as top-10 players at the position.

Popular Zero RB targets this season include Mark Ingram and Jonathan Stewart.

"TE-TE"

This is a strategy primarily espoused by popular fantasy pundit Evan Silva, for leagues with a flex position that has tight end eligibility. Silva argues that drafters should view the game primarily as a weekly contest and seek "touchdown scorers" who provide a significant positional advantage. 

Silva has suggested opening your draft with Jimmy Graham in the first round and Rob Gronkowski or Julius Thomas in the second - especially in PPR leagues. He stresses that it isn't the only strategy he believes can win this season, but it's one he is open to using depending on how his drafts flow. 

"Late-round QB"

The preferred methodology of fantasy writer JJ Zachariason, this strategy has gained mainstream acceptance in recent years (and you'll notice a strong hint of it in the basic strategies section above). Zachariason argues that the NFL has evolved into a passing league and the supply of acceptable fantasy quarterbacks has far surpassed the demand, making it an unwise proposition to spend a valuable asset like an early draft pick on such a plentiful commodity.

Zachariason goes on to argue that owners should seek quarterbacks who produce "elite" weeks, which is to say weeks in which they are among the top six scorers at their position, and that these weeks can be found by streaming quarterbacks based on favorable matchups. Moreover, he argues the advantage gained by spending early picks on running backs and wide receivers more than makes up for a loss in total point production from your rotating quarterbacks. 

Finding Value in Tiers

Positional rankings (like those published by theScore's fantasy expert Justin Boone) are great for guiding your draft, but it's also important to understand each position in terms of tiers. For those unfamiliar with the concept, let's take a look at the consensus top quarterbacks this season:

1. Peyton Manning
2. Drew Brees
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Andrew Luck
6. Tom Brady
7. Matt Ryan
8. Nick Foles
9. Jay Cutler
10. Cam Newton

The value difference between players on this list varies dramatically, with the most obvious gap lying between Rodgers and Stafford. The top three quarterbacks form a clear tier. The next tier break probably comes after Stafford and Luck, but that one's up for debate. 

In general, you want to avoid drafting players at the top of tiers and instead target those at the end of tiers, since that's where you find the best value. 

Tiered rankings are available online if you do some searching, but a better idea is to make your own list of tiers and bring it to your draft.

Planning Based on Draft Slot

Some fantasy leagues determine the draft order ahead of time, giving owners ample time to devise a plan of attack. Other leagues generate a random order in the minutes before the draft begins, creating a more chaotic draft room.

If you know where you'll pick, it's advisable to get a feel for your slot by participating in mock drafts. Learn which players at likely to be available to you in the first five rounds (projecting beyond that point is nearly impossible). If you know the tendencies of your leaguemates, try creating mock drafts offline that include the picks you expect your opponents to make. 

Picks 1-4

It's hard to find a fantasy expert who argues that owners with one of the top four picks this season, shouldn't begin their draft by taking a running back. LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte all look like virtual locks for top production. Don't get too cute if you're picking in this range this year. Just take the running back you like most.

Picks 5-8

This looks like a treacherous range to pick in the first round this season. Eddie Lacy is the consensus fifth running back available, but he carries some injury risk and there is reason to believe his production was inflated by Aaron Rodgers' injury last season. Marshawn Lynch is next, but he missed some training camp and there are rumors the Seahawks will begin to phase him out of their offense. Next up is Montee Ball (who is unproven but in an ideal situation) and DeMarco Murray (who is a major bust risk due to both injury and the chance that the Cowboys implode).

Only Lacy is being drafted before pick eight, due to owners' fears about the others. Calvin Johnson, Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham frequently go off the board in this range. In general, it appears preferable to draw pick seven or eight over fifth or six, as you are virtually guaranteed to have a good player fall to you and your second-round pick comes sooner.

Picks 9-12

The choice here typically comes down to a falling running back like Lynch, Ball or Murray, or a receiver like Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant or A.J. Green. Go with your gut, but lean toward the receivers in PPR leagues.

Crafting the Ideal Team

Below, we'll run down some ideal teams you can realistically draft with your first five picks from each draft slot. This isn't mean to be taken as gospel, but these mock teams can help guide you in working out a strategy to maximize the positional value you find in each round. 

(All picks based on the latest ADP data from FantasyFootballCalculator.com)

Pick 1

1. LeSean McCoy, RB or Jamaal Charles, RB
2. Alshon Jeffery, WR or Randall Cobb, WR
3. Andre Ellington, RB or Le'Veon Bell, RB
4. Andre Johnson, WR or Michael Crabtree, WR
5. Michael Floyd, WR or Percy Harvin, WR

1. LeSean McCoy, RB or Jamaal Charles, RB
2. Antonio Brown, WR or Alshon Jeffery, WR
3. Julius Thomas, TE or Rob Gronkowski, TE
4. Michael Crabtree, WR or Michael Floyd, WR
5. Ryan Mathews, RB or Frank Gore, RB

Pick 3

1. Adrian Peterson, RB
2. Jordy Nelson, WR or Antonio Brown, WR
3. Randall Cobb, WR or Keenan Allen, WR
4. Shane Vereen, RB or Ryan Mathews, RB
5. Michael Floyd, WR or Percy Harvin, WR

Pick 4

1. Matt Forte, RB
2. Jordy Nelson, WR or Antonio Brown, WR
3. Andre Ellington, RB or Le'Veon Bell, RB
4. Larry Fitzgerald, WR or Andre Johnson, WR
5. Michael Floyd, WR or Percy Harvin, WR

Pick 5

1. Eddie Lacy, RB
2. Jordy Nelson, WR or Antonio Brown, WR
3. Alshon Jeffery, WR or Randall Cobb, WR
4. Roddy White, WR or Victor Cruz, WR
5. Frank Gore, RB or Joique Bell, RB

Pick 6

1. Calvin Johnson, WR
2. Drew Brees, QB or Aaron Rodgers, QB
3. Randall Cobb, WR or Keenan Allen, WR
4. Shane Vereen, RB or Ryan Mathews, RB
5. Joique Bell, RB or Bishop Sankey, RB

Pick 7

1. Jimmy Graham, TE or Peyton Manning, QB
2. Giovani Bernard, RB or Doug Martin, RB
3. Randall Cobb, WR or Keenan Allen, WR
4. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR or Larry Fitzgerald, WR
5. Joique Bell, RB or Bishop Sankey, RB

Pick 8

1. Jimmy Graham, TE or Peyton Manning, QB
2. Brandon Marshall, WR or Jordy Nelson, WR
3. Keenan Allen, WR or Vincent Jackson, WR
4. C.J. Spiller, RB or Toby Gerhart, RB
5. Bishop Sankey, RB or Ben Tate, RB

Pick 9

1. Demaryius Thomas, WR
2. Drew Brees, QB or Aaron Rodgers, QB
3. Keenan Allen, WR or Vincent Jackson, WR
4. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR or Larry Fitzgerald, WR
5. Joique Bell, RB or Bishop Sankey, RB

Pick 10

1. Marshawn Lynch, RB or Montee Ball, RB
2. Julio Jones, WR or Brandon Marshall, WR
3. Zac Stacy, RB or Le'Veon Bell, RB
4. Roddy White, WR or Victor Cruz, WR
5. Emmanuel Sanders, WR or DeSean Jackson, WR

Pick 11

1. Marshawn Lynch, RB or Montee Ball, RB
2. A.J. Green, WR or Julio Jones, WR
3. C.J. Spiller, RB or Toby Gerhart, RB
4. Roddy White, WR or Victor Cruz, WR
5. Jordan Cameron, TE or Tom Brady, QB

Pick 12

1. Dez Bryant, WR or A.J. Green, WR
2. Montee Ball, RB or DeMarco Murray, RB
3. C.J. Spiller, RB or Toby Gerhart, RB
4. Roddy White, WR or Victor Cruz, WR
5. Jordan Cameron, TE or Tom Brady, QB

After the fifth round, your goals should include adding depth at running back and wide receiver and finding starters at quarterback and tight end (assuming you didn't invest early picks on top-tier players at those positions) when you feel the value is right.