Week 1 NFL Betting Recap: The Jaguars are an unbettable cancer

The first Sunday of the NFL season has come and gone, and it definitely lived up to the hype, with a number of games going right down to the wire.

In this post, I’ll take a look at my predictions prior to the week and try to figure out where I went right or wrong (mostly wrong this week). Excuses will be made where they’re justified, but for the most part, this is just a whole lot of me taking out my frustrations on my keyboard. I’ll also look ahead to next week’s games and give my early thoughts on potential "play on" or "play against" spots.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Prediction: Falcons 23, Saints 20
Wager: Falcons +3
Final Score: Falcons 37, Saints 34

Well, at least I can get things started on the right foot. I vehemently disagreed with the Saints being favored in Atlanta, and although this game really could have gone either way, I ended up on the right side. This was Atlanta’s Super Bowl and they played like it - especially quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons will have a tough time getting up for their game in Cincinnati after this emotional win - I’ll almost certainly play against them. The Saints are in Cleveland which presents a difficult scenario. On one hand, New Orleans isn't a good road team, but on the other hand, they usually respond well when coming off a loss. They should have their way with the Browns, who may still be reeling following their tough loss in Pittsburgh.

Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams

Prediction: Rams 24, Vikings 23
Wager: Rams -3
Final Score: Vikings 34, Rams 6

So I was wrong about this one...just about as wrong as one could possibly be. I’m not really sure what to even make of this game. Minnesota seems to be improved, and they definitely have a strong coaching staff, but I don’t want to overreact to this one game. They catch Bill Belichick and Tom Brady coming off of a loss next week, which probably won’t end up too good. As for the Rams, they’re probably not nearly as bad as they looked this week, but I can’t foresee any circumstances where I can lay points with that offense at any other point this season. As a dog in Tampa next weekend, well, that’s a different story.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers 20, Browns 14
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Steelers 30, Browns 27

The Steelers led this game 27-3 at halftime before proceeding to urinate all over Heinz Field in the second half. Brian Hoyer was doing his best Joe Montana impression and the Browns pulled off the improbable comeback, until they realized that they were the Browns and inevitably blew it. Cleveland has the dubious task of taking on an angry Saints squad, so they’ll probably be behind by 20-plus points at the half next week as well. As for Pittsburgh, they head to Baltimore for Thursday Night Football in what should be an exhibition in terrible football.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Eagles 34, Jaguars 24
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Eagles 34, Jaguars 17

Woof. Jacksonville led this game 17-0, and Jaguars backers couldn’t get to the window to cash their tickets soon enough. Chad Henne was carving up the Eagles secondary, Nick Foles was looking like a pile of trash, and survivor poolies everywhere were thinking about drinking antifreeze. And then it all happened: Jacksonville summoned their inner Jaguar and gave up 34 unanswered points to lose outright and punch their ATS backers right in the nuts. The Jags are getting five points against the God awful Redskins next week, but this team is an unbettable cancer. Philly heads to Indianapolis to take on the Colts on Monday night, and should have their hands full with Andrew Luck, who is perfect ATS in his career when coming off a loss.

Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets

Prediction: Jets 27, Raiders 24
Wager: Over 40
Final Score: Jets 19, Raiders 14

Zzzzzzzzz. That pretty much describes this one. When the Raiders offense wasn’t busy going three-and-out, the Jets were busy turning it over in the red zone. Geno Smith still looks like the same turnover-prone disaster from a year ago, and his ineptitude allowed the Raiders to get the nasty backdoor cover despite being outgained by 244 total yards. As for my over wager, I don’t regret it at all. I played what I believed was an edge, and to be honest, it was looking good in the first quarter, aside from the Jets continuously turning it over in Raider territory. Oakland returns home where they’re a pick’em (huh? Must be a trap) against the Texans, while the Jets travel to Lambeau to face the wrath of the Packers.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Ravens 21, Bengals 16
Wager: Ravens pk
Final Score: Bengals 23, Ravens 16

This game may have taken years off of my life. Joe Flacco was predictably awful, although my dumbfounded love for the Ravens at home always seems to blind me from how truly pathetic he can be. Somehow, after being dominated for three quarters, the Ravens came all the way back to take the lead thanks to Steve Smith (no credit to that loser Flacco), and then promptly surrendered a bomb to A.J. Green to fall behind again. Baltimore drove into Cincinnati territory in an attempt to tie the game, but Flacco proceeded to take a sack on both third and fourth downs to cement his status as a complete lemon. All anger aside, I was pretty impressed with Cincinnati this week, and I like them quite a bit at home to the Falcons next week. As for the Ravens, I probably won’t bet them on Thursday this week, which means Flacco will look like an All-Pro and Baltimore will have the game wrapped up by halftime.

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears 27, Bills 21
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Bills 23, Bears 20

If I had any stones whatsoever I would have been on the Bills here, but obviously, I have no stones whatsoever. There’s just something about Jay Cutler laying points that never seems to work out well, and we had yet another example this week. A lot was made of Buffalo’s problems in the preseason but EJ Manuel looked pretty good, and the Bills' defense held up, although Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery both got hurt for the Bears. Regardless, this is one more opportunity to remind everyone that the preseason isn't worth a lick. Buffalo heads home next week to take on Miami, and they stick out as one of the few plays that I like on next week’s board. Chicago heads to San Francisco where everyone expects them to lose, so Cutler will probably throw for four touchdowns and the Bears will upset the Niners.

Washington Redskins @ Houston Texans

Prediction: Redskins 26, Texans 24
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Texans 17, Redskins 6

2012 RG3 is dead. Plain and simple, this guy sucks. Good thing the Redskins gave up all those draft picks to move up and snag him. Anyway, I predicted Washington to win mainly because I had no read on this game, so I really don’t care much that I got it wrong. I doubt I can back this group of losers at any point this season, except for possibly their divisional games against the Cowboys. They’re flat out awful. As for Houston, their defense looked solid, but I'm still not sold on old man Fitzpatrick under center. I'd be careful about reading too much into this game because Washington is terrible, though Houston should be able to take down Oakland on the road next week.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Titans 24
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Titans 26, Chiefs 10

See Bears/Bills where I refer to my lack of stones. All offseason I loved the Titans, and then Week 1 rolls around and I convince myself that the Chiefs should still be able to dispose of bad teams. Big mistake. I didn’t really lose anything here, but it was a missed opportunity for a wager. As many predicted prior to the season, the Chiefs are an atrocity, and they’ll only get worse with Derrick Johnson out for the year with a torn Achilles. They’re double-digit dogs in Denver next week, and although I usually love me my double-digit dogs, this will be a tough one to pull the trigger on. Tennessee is laying points at home to Dallas next week, and I’ll almost surely be playing the underdog there.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Patriots 20, Dolphins 17
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Dolphins 33, Patriots 20

For the third time already, please refer to my lack of stones comments above. It’s so hard to pick against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in Week 1, even though everything pointed to a potential upset here. Miami looked good. This score line isn’t even indicative of how bad it could have been for New England as Ryan Tannehill missed a couple of wide open receivers in the red zone (what else is new?). Unfortunately, it’s back to reality for the Dolphins in Buffalo next week - wait, did I really just type that? As for New England, they should still be considered a frontrunner in the AFC. I’m not going to dog them for one poor result to start the season, and I’m feeling pretty confident that they’re going to smack Minnesota around next week.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Bucs 20, Panthers 13
Wager: Bucs -2.5
Final Score: Panthers 20, Bucs 14

I could write an opus on this game. For starters, I hated hearing the news that Cam Newton wasn’t going to play for Carolina. Huh? Why? Psychology 101. This happens time and time again in the NFL where the backup starts for the opposing team and the favorites think they have the game won before it starts. It’s actually one of my favorite spots in all of sports. Carolina put in an inspired effort with their backup playing, while the Bucs just loafed around like a bunch of idiots all game. Tampa was dreadful for the first 50 minutes of the game before they finally put together a couple of scoring drives with Carolina playing in their useless prevent defense. However, despite this complete debacle from Tampa, the Bucs still had a chance to win the game. Bucs free safety Dashon Goldson dropped an interception deep in Carolina territory that would have likely been returned for a touchdown and given the Bucs a 21-17 lead at the time. But, he didn’t catch the ball and that was that. A loss is a loss no matter how you slice it. This one just happened to be particularly frustrating. I don’t even want to think of either team’s Week 2 games right now.

San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: 49ers 31, Cowboys 28
Wager: Pass
Final Score: 49ers 28, Cowboys 17

It didn't take long for this one to turn into a laugher. The Cowboys' defense sucks - we all knew that - and it sure didn't help when their offense spotted the 49ers a seven-point lead on the first drive of the game. It was all downhill from there. The final score is actually pretty flattering when you consider how badly the Cowboys were dominated. Dallas is my favorite team so I'd prefer not to re-live these memories once more.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Prediction: Broncos 38, Colts 23
Wager: Broncos -7.5
Final Score: Broncos 31, Colts 24

There's no better way to cap off a day full of tough losses than with a nice backdoor cover going the other way. The Broncos really took their foot off the gas again in this one. Denver has been guilty of letting teams back into contests far too often, so it's going to be tougher and tougher to lay big numbers with them going forward, especially since you have to pay a premium to do so. And coincidentally, they're installed as double-digit faves against the Chiefs next weekend.

#SuperContest Recap

The good folks at Oddsshark.com paid my way into the #SuperContest this season, and I certainly won't be taking home the top prize with weeks like the one I just had, going 6-7 against the number on Sunday (1-3 with my #SuperContest plays), but I guess I wasn't the only one to struggle on this day.

Looking ahead to next weekend, hopefully I can fare a little better. There are already a few plays I like, so maybe I can start a nice little run with a solid Week 2 performance.