NFL Week 3 Betting Preview: Lay the points with the Lions

Week 3 has arrived.

After a rough start to the NFL season, I rebounded nicely in Week 2, going 6-1 ATS with my posted plays. I had a good feeling about last week’s card, and I have to say, I like this week’s card just as much, if not more. A lot of teams are being overvalued or undervalued because of their performance in only a pair of games, and I’m looking to exploit that with this week’s wagers.

Before I get into this week’s write-ups, I’d like to clarify one question that I’ve been receiving quite frequently. Over the course of the week, I post NFL plays to my Twitter account. Those plays are my personal wagers; games that I have actually bet on myself. But by the time Friday rolls around, a lot of those lines are unavailable, or there are other circumstances that have changed my viewpoint on a game. 

The purpose of this article is to outline plays that I would make at the time of this writing. For example, last week I played New England as 3-point favorites when the line was first posted, but I did not include it as a play in my Week 2 Betting Preview. The Adrian Peterson situation changed my opinion on the game, and at the time of my writing, I did not feel as though New England was worth a wager (WRONG!!!). There’s no point in writing a Friday betting preview and referencing lines that aren't currently available - I won’t do that and I will never do that.

Now that we've gotten that out of the way, if you’re unfamiliar with my betting preview, take some time to read the intro to my Week 1 betting preview in order to better understand my approach. Once again, I’ve linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats, and other items of note for each game.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 3.

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills

Friday Consensus Line: Bills -2.5 -115, total 45.5

The Pick: There’s no question that the Bills are one of the league’s more overrated teams right now, but there’s no denying that they are in a great spot for a second consecutive week (Everything's coming up Buffalo!). San Diego is coming off of back-to-back tough games, falling to the Cardinals on "Monday Night Football" in Week 1, then upsetting the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks in Week 2. The Chargers now have to fly across the country for an early start time in weather conditions that are much cooler than they’re accustomed to. To make matters worse, they don’t match up all that well with the Bills either. The Chargers have struggled to stop the run on the road in the last couple of years, surrendering 4.9 yards per carry away from home since the beginning of last season. Buffalo should be able to get C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson going on the ground, leading to very favorable situations for E.J. Manuel. San Diego is also without stud center Nick Hardwick on their offensive line, which should make things difficult for Philip Rivers against a solid Bills interior defense. The loss of running back Ryan Mathews also means the Chargers will have to rely on the less capable Donald Brown. All in all, I’ll play the matchup and the spot, and side with the home team here. Bills 27, Chargers 17

The Wager: Buffalo also faces a tough spot here, coming off a big win in which they honored Ralph Wilson and Jim Kelly prior to the game, but I’m not too concerned about it. The Bills have been a solid home team for a while now, as the fans of Buffalo have created a raucous environment at Ralph Wilson Stadium. There are just too many factors working against the Chargers, so I’ll gladly back the Bills for a second straight week. Bills -2.5 -110 (Pinnacle)

Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams

Friday Consensus Line: Cowboys -1, total 44

The Pick: It’s funny how quickly one week can change the perception of a team. After Dallas’ Week 1 loss to San Francisco, people went so far as to peg them as one of the league’s worst teams. Now, after a 26-10 thumping of the Titans, everyone is in love with the Cowboys again. Have we seen this before? Even with the garbage that the Rams are trotting out at quarterback (most likely Shaun Hill this week), they shouldn’t have much of an issue moving the ball against a poor Dallas defense. The Cowboys will be without outside linebacker Justin Durant due to a groin injury and inside linebacker Rolando McClain’s availability is also in question as he’s been unable to practice this week. The Rams will give the Cowboys’ defense a heavy dose of their rushing attack, and Hill (?) will be able to work out of manageable situations all game. Dallas was successful last week in Tennessee because of its ability to pound the rock with DeMarco Murray. The Rams have given up a whopping 5.5 yards per carry this season, but I wouldn’t read too much into that small sample size considering the Rams had the second best run defense in the league a year ago, giving up just 3.7 yards per carry. If St. Louis can keep Murray in check, Tony Romo will have to air it out more often, and that can lead to some turnovers, especially with the Rams’ strong pass rush. Despite last week’s showing, I’m not ready to buy into the Cowboys. Rams 20, Cowboys 16

The Wager: In the span of a week, the Cowboys have gone from a 3.5-point underdog in Tennessee to a 1-point favorite on the road in St. Louis. As is usually the case with Dallas, everyone seems to overreact to the prior week, and we are able to get in at a very favorable price. These teams are relatively equal, so I think there’s some great value on the home team this week. Rams +1 (widely available)

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles

Friday Consensus Line: Eagles -6.5, total 50

The Pick: Speaking of overreactions, NFL fans and media have already crowned Kirk Cousins as the new quarterback of the future for the Redskins. Maybe Cousins gives Washington a better chance to win than RG3, but that’s really not saying much considering how horrible the Baylor product has performed in the last couple of seasons. I’m also not too impressed with Cousins tearing up a depleted Jaguars secondary that had spent the entire week game planning for Griffin. Cousins appeared in five games a season ago, throwing for four touchdowns and turning the ball over nine times, all while posting an embarrassing 58.4 rating. Pump the brakes. The Redskins are without tight end Jordan Reed and will probably be starting DeSean Jackson at less than 100 percent, so it’s not like Cousins’ weapons are the greatest either. The good news for Washington is that the Eagles probably think they’re big shit after their "Monday Night Football" victory in Indianapolis. This is a divisional matchup, but who knows how much preparation the Eagles have put in after the collective lovefest hosted by the national media over the last week. My best guess is that Philadelphia sleep walks through much of this contest and still finds a way to win the game against a defense that is taking a big step up in class. Eagles 27, Redskins 21

The Wager: To say that I find this game unappealing from a betting perspective would be a massive understatement. Both teams are pretty high up on my fade list right now, so I’m not sure I’d really want to back either one in any spot this week. Pass

Houston Texans @ New York Giants

Friday Consensus Line: Texans -2, total 41

The Pick: The Giants took years off my life with their self destruction last week. New York outgained Arizona by 75 total yards but turned the ball over four times and gave up a 71-yard punt return that felt like a punch to the heart. Needless to say, they wound up on the losing end for a second straight week. I still feel as though New York is better than most people believe though, and they take on a Texans squad that’s extremely overrated. Houston has feasted on two terrible quarterbacks thus far, owning RG3 and rookie Derek Carr in back-to-back weeks. Eli Manning is far from the Super Bowl caliber quarterback that he was in years past, but he’s also not a complete scrub. If Rashad Jennings avoids fumbling with no one around him (yes, that happened), the Giants may just have a chance this week. I’m also not sold on the Texans’ offense just yet. Arian Foster figures to have another strong showing against a subpar New York run defense (provided his hamstring injury isn’t too serious), but at some point, Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to have to be more of a game changer than a game manager, and he simply doesn’t have the talent to do that. The Texans started last season with two wins and proceeded to lose 14 straight games. They won’t repeat that feat this season, but the Giants will hand them their first loss. Giants 20, Texans 13

The Wager: New York was my only losing wager last week, which makes me hesitant to bet them again this week, but I just can’t make sense of this line at all. The Texans were 3-point favorites in Oakland last week, and I don’t believe that the Giants are just marginally better than the god awful Raiders. I’m convinced that the Texans would be 0-2 if they played the same schedule that the Giants have up until this point, and I could see them being flat after flying from Oakland to Houston to New York in the span of a week. Giants +2 (widely available). PS: I hate myself for doing this.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Friday Consensus Line: Saints -9.5, total 49.5

The Pick: As mentioned in my Week 2 recap, it’s really not that surprising that the Saints are 0-2. I’m sure most people didn't see them losing back-to-back games to the Falcons and Browns, but anything is possible with the Saints on the road. Luckily, this game is in the friendly confines of the Meredes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans has been a destructive force at home in recent years, and they’ll be licking their chops at the prospects of taking on a Vikings defense that surrendered 30 points at home to the Patriots last week. The Saints will be without running back Mark Ingram, but Khiry Robinson should be a capable replacement, especially against a run defense that was just gashed by Stevan Ridley. The big news surrounding this contest comes on the other side of the ball, though. Minnesota will once again be without Adrian Peterson, which will make keeping pace with the Saints even harder than it would have been. New Orleans defense has been very shaky, surrendering 63 points in their first two games, but there’s not much to suggest that Matt Cassel is capable of engaging in a shootout with Drew Brees. Cassel tossed four picks in last week’s contest against the Patriots and also turned the ball over four times in his only career start in the Superdome in 2012. The Saints should be able to get back on track with relative ease. Saints 35, Vikings 20

The Wager: If this was last season, I’d be all over the Saints in this spot, but there are a couple of things that just don’t sit well with me. The first is that we have an 0-2 team laying an extremely large number. The Saints have yet to win this year and they’re now expected to crush their opponent? I’m not a fan of paying a premium on New Orleans here because they “have to win.” The Vikings are also coming off an embarrassing loss, so I think there will be extra incentive to right the ship this week. This could very easily result in a Saints blowout, but I’m just not willing to put money down on it. Pass

Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals

Friday Consensus Line: Bengals -7, total 43

The Pick: I cashed a wager on the Bengals last week against the Falcons, but I’m putting them on upset alert this week. Everyone is talking about how good Cincinnati has looked. They won on the road in Baltimore in Week 1 and then dismantled the Falcons in Week 2. One of the news editors at theScore even went so far as to rank the Bengals as the #1 team in the league right now! Well, I’m not convinced. Cincinnati cashed in on a huge flat spot for Atlanta last weekend, but there are plenty of things to be concerned about this week. For starters, their offense has not been very efficient in opposing territory. Mike Nugent has already attempted 10 field goals through the first two games of the season, and now there are multiple concerns on the injury front. A.J. Green plans to play this week with a toe injury but it’s anyone’s guess as to how effective he’ll be. I’m already skeptical about Andy Dalton, but I’d be even more so if Green isn't at 100 percent, with Mohamed Sanu and Brandon Tate the next two wideouts on the depth chart. Bengals outside linebacker Vontaze Burfict also suffered his second concussion in the span of two weeks and is unlikely to suit up this week. The Titans looked awful last week, but let’s not forget that this has been an offense that has struggled with consistency for multiple seasons. They broke down the Chiefs defense in Week 1 better than the Broncos were able to break them down in Week 2. Cincinnati is a solid home team and probably finds a way to eke out a win, but I think this one will be closer than it looks. Bengals 23, Titans 21

The Wager: If I believe an underdog of a touchdown or more has a chance to win the game outright, I’m almost always going to play them against the spread. Cincinnati has a bye next week and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they underestimate Tennessee this week (although I have no factual evidence to support any hypothesis that teams may be flat before a bye). I hate betting against the Bengals at home as much as I hate that overcooked noodles, but I think this is too many points. Titans +7 (widely available)

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -1.5, total 41

The Pick: After Baltimore shellacked Pittsburgh on "Thursday Night Football," I immediately thought to myself, “I’m going to play against these clowns next week." Yes, my thought process included the word “clowns." But then the Browns went out and upset the Saints, leaving me with two teams that I’d be looking to fade. Baltimore had a strong second half in which they outgained and outplayed the Steelers, but the Ravens were far from dominant. Joe Flacco was his usual meh self, but he was helped drastically by a run game that picked up 157 yards. That was at home, though. The Ravens have not fared too kindly on the road in recent years and now battle a Browns squad that has essentially shut down Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees in the past six quarters of football. Cleveland has also finally gotten some good quarterback play from Brian Hoyer, who has been disciplined and able to generate enough offense to keep the Browns in both of their games. With that said, it’s hard to ignore the Ravens’ recent dominance of the Browns, having won 11 of the last 12 meetings between the two teams. Cleveland is week in run defense, which should allow for Bernard Pierce and Justin Forsett to keep the chains moving on the ground. With Flacco likely not having to win this game with his arm, I give the edge to Baltimore. Ravens 19, Browns 16

The Wager: Cleveland is destined for another four- or five-win season, so it’s probably a good idea to play against them in any pick’em spot for the remainder of the year. There’s definitely a solid case to be made against them coming off that huge upset over the Saints, but it’s still hard for me to get behind the Ravens on the road. I’ll probably include the Ravens on a few parlay cards but won’t have a straight wager on them. Pass

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Friday Consensus Line: Lions -3 +105, total 52

The Pick: I mentioned this in last week’s preview, and I’ll reiterate it once more - I don’t think the Packers are very good. Aaron Rodgers is fully capable of carrying the Packers on his shoulders (see last week vs. Jets), but it’s extremely difficult to do soon a weekly basis. Green Bay’s offensive line problems have proven to be very real in the first couple weeks of the season as Rodgers has been running for his life on seemingly every dropback. The lack of an offensive line has also hurt the Packers’ rushing attack, as Eddie Lacy has mustered only 77 rushing yards in two games, although he did leave the first game of the season with a concussion. Green Bay is going to need to score a lot of points in this game, and I don’t think that’s achievable with the edge the Lions possess with their defensive line. I’m not taking too much away from the Lions’ loss in Carolina last week. I had a play on the Panthers because I knew that Detroit would find a way to shoot themselves in the foot on the road. Two missed field goals, two lost fumbles, and a key interception in the fourth quarter did the Lions in, but they now return home, where they’re a much different team. The Packers would have trouble defending some FBS offenses right now, so I don’t like their chances against the plethora of weapons that the Lions boast on offense. Green Bay simply has too many issues to overcome. Lions 31, Packers 21

The Wager: This line is rising to a point where the line value with the Lions is almost gone, but I see these teams as relatively equal right now, and I think Detroit’s home field advantage is worth more than the average three points. It’s always tempting to take Aaron Rodgers as an underdog, but he’s already been blown out once in that spot this season, reinforcing the notion that this Packers’ team simply isn't as good as it has been in years past. Lay the points. Lions -2.5 -112 (BetOnline)

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Friday Consensus Line: Colts -7, total 45

The Pick: The Colts got jobbed by some poor officiating on "Monday Night Football." Indianapolis should have beaten Philadelphia if it weren't for a missed pass interference call, but that happens, and the Colts are now 0-2. Now the Colts have to travel to Jacksonville on a short week after having lost back-to-back prime time games in heartbreaking fashion. Oh, and did I mention that this is Jacksonville’s home opener at their newly renovated EverBank Field? The Colts’ offense will continue to operate at half efficiency because offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton inexcusably continues to give the bulk of the carries to Trent Richardson. Indianapolis gave up a first-round pick to grab T-Rich a year ago, and they seem set in their ways on continuing to use him even though he’s more inefficient than the post office. This forces Andrew Luck into a lot of third-and-long situations - many of which he can convert because he’s awesome - but also many of which will end up in punting situations. On the other side of things, it’ll be interesting to see if Chad Henne can bounce back from an abysmal performance where he was sacked a whopping 10 times. I doubt Henne will get dropped a lot this time around because Indianapolis’ pass rush is pretty much non-existent without Robert Mathis, so there will definitely be an opportunity to beat the pedestrian Colts defense. Maybe I ate some funky Chinese food today, but I have visions of a major upset here. Jaguars 24, Colts 21

The Wager: I know that the Jaguars have looked awful, but I can’t wrap my head around an 0-2 team in a huge flat spot laying a touchdown on the road. Jacksonville’s home field doesn’t usually count for much, but this is their home opener, which is a rare occasion where their fans might actually get behind them. Hold your nose and take the points. Jaguars +7 (widely available). I look forward to your tweets when Jacksonville loses by 42 points.

Oakland Raiders @ New England Patriots

Friday Consensus Line: Patriots -14, total 47

The Pick: Hmmm, Tom Brady vs. Derek Carr in the Patriots’ home opener. Compelling. The Raiders have been an atrocity through the first two weeks of the season and now have to make their second trip to the East Coast in the first three weeks of the season. Carr has no offensive line whatsoever, no running game to rely on, and he basically looks like a deer in the headlights. Any additional writing here is just a complete waste of my time. Patriots 27, Raiders 13

The Wager: Double-digit spreads and I just don’t get along. I don’t like taking an underdog unless I think they can win outright, which I certainly don’t believe here, but I’m also very hesitant to lay a large number of points. New England has a "Monday Night Football" game on deck next week so they could take their foot off the gas late in the game, but then again, Bill Belichick is a huge asshole so he’ll probably want to send a message by stomping the lowly Raiders. I don’t want any piece of this one. Pass

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -3, total of 42

The Pick: "Sunday Night Football" couldn't have gone any worse for the 49ers last week. After building up a 17-0 lead in front of their fans at the brand new Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco completely fell apart. Colin Kaepernick was downright awful and the 49ers defense couldn't defend a hobbled Brandon Marshall en route to a major collapse. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were on the other side of a major collapse last week, watching the Giants self-destruct in East Rutherford. Drew Stanton was serviceable in replacement of the injured Carson Palmer, but I think it'll take more than serviceable play at the position to beat the 49ers this week. San Francisco has a stout run defense and should be able to put the clamps down on a hobbled Andre Ellington, meaning that Stanton will have to move the chains mostly by himself. Wide receivers Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald pose major matchup problems for the 49ers secondary, but I have little faith in Stanton getting them the ball. The good news for Arizona is that San Francisco has a lot of the same issues. Their running game will struggle to get on track against a solid Cardinals run defense, so the success of the offense will rest on the shoulders of their quarterback. Kaepernick is highly inconsistent, so it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens this weekend. At the end of the day though, Jim Harbaugh has a great track record of having his teams bounce back after a loss, and I trust Kaepernick slightly more than Stanton. This game could really go either way but I’ll side with the road team. 49ers 23, Cardinals 20

The Wager: Aside from Patriots and Raiders, I don’t think there’s a less appealing game to me on this week’s board. I usually like to bet on a team that got embarrassed on "Sunday Night Football," but I don’t really agree with this line. I doubt the 49ers would be 9-point favorites at home to the Cardinals right now, considering they were only 7-point favorites to the Bears last week. Line value seems to be with the home side but I can’t stomach a wager on Stanton. Pass

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks

Friday Consensus Line: Seahawks -4.5, total 48.5

The Pick: The Super Bowl rematch is the game everyone is talking about this week, and there are some extra storylines surrounding the game. Seattle enters this contest off an ugly loss to the Chargers in San Diego. The Seahawks were on extra rest, taking on a Chargers team that had played on Monday night, and they were flat out run off the field. The Chargers held the ball for over 42 minutes and were the first team to defeat the Seahawks by more than a touchdown in 47 contests, one shy of an NFL record. What do I make of all of this? Nothing. Seattle is still the cream of the crop, and one loss on the road isn’t going to get me down on a team that is stacked with talent. The Seahawks return home and they’ll be back in their comfort zone with the 12th man. The Broncos brought in some reinforcements on defense in the offseason, but they were beaten so soundly in the Super Bowl, that it’s hard for me to see this game unfolding in any other manner (I don’t believe in the “revenge factor," but that’s a story for another day). Russell Wilson hasn’t turned the ball over this season and as long as he can continue to protect the rock, Denver will be in tough. Peyton Manning gets Wes Welker back in the mix this week, but unfortunately for Manning, he’ll have to deal with an awesome defense that’s been carved up by the media this week. Montee Ball has been highly ineffective to start the season, and without the presence of a running game, Manning will be dealing with plenty of third-and-longs all afternoon. I see this one playing out similarly to the game we saw this past February. Seahawks 31, Broncos 17

The Wager: What is Seattle’s home field worth? There is no correct answer, but I believe that it’s in the range of 4.5 points; maybe even higher. This line suggests that these two teams are even, but I don’t agree with that. I think Seattle is better than Denver, and I really haven’t been impressed with the Broncos’ offense in the last six quarters. With that being said, I don’t see enough of an edge here to lay the points. Sure, my predicted outcome is by two touchdowns and there may be half a point to a full point of perceived value with Seattle, but it doesn't come close to the strength of the other plays on my card this week. Pass

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins

Friday Consensus Line: Dolphins -4, total 43

The Pick: This looks like a big mismatch to me. Kansas City isn’t as terrible as they were in Week 1 against Tennessee, and they’re not as good as they were in Week 2 against Denver, but they’re definitely closer to that Week 1 performance. The Chiefs are battered right now. Derrick Johnson, Mike DeVito, and Jeff Allen were all placed on IR after the team's first game of the season; three crucial pieces of an already underwhelming Kansas City squad. Add Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry to that injury list, and the Chiefs are significantly worse than the weak lineup they rolled out in Week 1, on both sides of the ball. I give Kansas City a lot of credit for playing Denver tough last week, but that was a demoralizing loss, and I fully expect the Chiefs to lay an egg on Sunday. Miami’s loss to Buffalo last week looked much worse than it actually was. The Dolphins defense only allowed one offensive touchdown, and it was a 102-yard kick return in the third quarter that basically did them in. That’s two consecutive strong defensive performances for the Dolphins, who sacked Tom Brady four times at home back in Week 1. I just can’t see Kansas City moving the ball consistently with “Captain Checkdown” Alex Smith under center. The Dolphins suffered a big loss in losing Knowshon Moreno, but Lamar Miller should have plenty of success against the banged up Chiefs defensive front. The spot and the talent favor the home team by a large margin. Dolphins 30, Chiefs 13

The Wager: Dating back to the end of last season, the Chiefs have been outgained in 8 of their past 10 games. This is not a good football team, and they’re much worse now with the severe setbacks they’ve had on both sides of the ball. There’s always a reluctance to lay points with the Dolphins, who have a terrible track record as a favorite, but I think this line is far too short. Dolphins -3.5 (Pinnacle)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers

Friday Consensus Line: Panthers -3 -115, total of 42

The Pick: The Steelers looked awful last Thursday in Baltimore, and that may be the understatement of the year. Pittsburgh looked like they were in business early on but a fumble halted their progress, and they were flat for the rest of the contest. This is far from a good football team, with issues on both sides of the ball, but they also take on a Carolina squad that has looked a lot better than they really are. Let’s examine the Panthers’ two victories. Backup quarterback Derek Anderson led the team to victory in Week 1 at Tampa, but as we've seen so far this year, the Bucs are in the running for the  No. 1 overall selection in the upcoming draft. Last week, the Panthers took care of the Lions at home, but that wasn’t all that impressive either. Detroit shot themselves in the foot as they usually do on the road, and the Panthers still struggled to separate until late in the second half. Cam Newton looked solid last week, but let’s not forget that there are multiple factors working against him. The Panthers’ offensive line stinks, their receiving core is one of the worst in the league (although Kelvin Benjamin has looked solid), they don’t have much of a running game, and Newton is only a couple of weeks removed from an injury. Pittsburgh will have had extra time to prepare for this contest, and that’s definitely a factor because of their strong coaching staff, and their quality personnel on offense. The Panthers’ defense is stingy, but the Steelers have the weapons to exploit them, although their pass protection could come back to bite them. All in all, I think when you factor in the situation, these teams match up pretty evenly. Close call, but I’ll take the Steelers to bounce back. Steelers 24, Panthers 23

The Wager: I placed a wager on the Steelers +3.5 earlier in the week. In a game that I perceive to be a close one, I think the hook matters. Those 3.5s are long gone, and there are mainly 3s on the board—although it wouldn’t cost you much to buy up a half point. Sunday Night Football underdogs are always intriguing because the public tends to load up on the favorite in these spots, but I’m not advocating a play here unless this number rises. Pass... for now

Chicago Bears @ New York Jets

Friday Consensus Line: Jets -3 +105, total 45.5

The Pick: You have to credit the Bears for their inspired comeback last week at San Francisco. Chicago’s offense and defense both came to life in the second half, as they rallied from 17 points down to win on the road. Consequently, everyone seems to have forgotten how poor the Bears looked in Week 1 at home facing a Buffalo squad that has been a train wreck on the road in recent years. Chicago’s defense is still a complete dumpster fire that is void of above-average talent at literally every position. The Jets have moved the ball against two other poor defenses this season, so I don’t see why they won’t have success against the Bears on Monday night. Chicago has given up 322 rushing yards through two weeks and the Jets have compiled 358 rushing yards through their first two games. There is nothing to indicate that New York won’t be able to run the rock with ease, setting up favorable situations for Geno Smith. On the other side of things, the Bears have some major issues on their offensive line. San Francisco didn’t expose these issues last week, but the Jets have a strong front seven that will have Jay Cutler under pressure all night. Cutler will still find a way to get the ball to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, but I think a turnover or two is in the cards with Cutler under constant duress. The Jets have one of the league’s strongest run defenses, so it’s not like Matt Forte will be able to shoulder much of the load either. I don’t necessarily think that the Jets are better than the Bears, but they sure match up awfully well against them. Jets 26, Bears 18

The Wager: Similar to many other games this week, we’ve lost a lot of value on one of the teams since the opener. I locked in the Jets early in the week, but I actually still advocate them at any number under -3. New York is a major matchup problem for Chicago, and I love the spot with the Bears riding in high off an upset victory on Sunday night. Jets -2.5 -115 (BetOnline)

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s LVH/WestGate SuperContest. Why did they pick me? I have no idea, but nevertheless, I am competing in it. After a 1-4 start in Week 1, I went 4-1 with my selections last week and now sit at a mediocre 5-5 on the season. All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after they’re submitted on Friday evening.

Here are this week’s SuperContest lines. I haven’t locked in my plays as of yet, but here is what I’m considering.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2014
3 BILLS* 10:00 AM 4 CHARGERS 2 ½ --- considering the Bills
5 COWBOYS 10:00 AM 6 RAMS* 1 ½ --- considering the Rams
7 EAGLES* 10:00 AM 8 REDSKINS 6 ½ --- pass
9 TEXANS 10:00 AM 10 GIANTS* 2 --- considering the Giants
11 SAINTS* 10:00 AM 12 VIKINGS 10 ½ --- line value with Vikings, pass
13 BENGALS* 10:00 AM 14 TITANS 6 ½ --- line value with Bengals, not considering the Titans
15 RAVENS 10:00 AM 16 BROWNS* 1 ½ --- considering the Ravens, although will likely pass
17 LIONS* 10:00 AM 18 PACKERS 2 ½ --- considering the Lions
19 COLTS 10:00 AM 20 JAGUARS* 6 ½ --- line value with Colts, still considering the Jags
21 PATRIOTS* 10:00 AM 22 RAIDERS 14 --- pass
23 49ERS 1:05 PM 24 CARDINALS* 3 --- pass
25 SEAHAWKS* 1:25 PM 26 BRONCOS 5 --- pass
27 DOLPHINS* 1:25 PM 28 CHIEFS 4 ½ --- line value with Chiefs, still considering the Dolphins
29 PANTHERS* NBC 5:30 PM 30 STEELERS 3 ½ --- line value with Steelers, considering them

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2014
31 JETS* ESPN 5:30 PM 32 BEARS 3 --- considering the Jets, although I hate the 3

Picks Summary

More NFL Betting Resources

Opening Line Report | Staff Picks
Game Day Betting Update
MNF Preview (Monday)