NFL Week 6 Betting Preview: Home underdog overload

Week 6 has arrived.

Week 5 was a good one, as I went 4-2 ATS in my Sunday betting preview, although I did lose my recommended wager of Redskins +7.5 on Monday Night Football (barf). Anyways, it was nice to put together my first back-to-back winning weeks of the season and I look to continue that trend this week.

If you’ve read my previews in the past, you know I’m a sucker for home underdogs and that makes this week’s board a very intriguing one, with six home dogs on the card (including Monday Night Football). Once again, I’ve linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats and other items of note for each game. The Monday Night Football pick will once again be included in my recap piece on Monday and that will be the case for the remainder of the season.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 6.

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets

Friday Consensus Line: Broncos -9, total of 47.5

The Pick: The Broncos make a trip to the site where they were embarrassed in the Super Bowl, but luckily for them, they won’t be playing the Seahawks’ defense this time around. New York’s defense has been an abomination this season, mainly due to the fact that they lack any sort of talent whatsoever in their secondary. 

The Jets used to be able to get away with Rex Ryan’s relentless blitzing because they had solid cover corners, but that’s simply not the case anymore. Peyton Manning has been held in check by Ryan’s defenses in the past, but this is a different year and a different defense. I fully expect Manning to go off here. The Jets will rely on Geno Smith to keep pace and, as we’ve all seen thus far, that’s a recipe for disaster. Heading into this season, the Jets’ coaching staff was high on Smith, believing he had turned the corner, but he’s proven to be every bit as bad as he was a year ago. 

New York also lacks any sort of game-changing weapons on offense, so finding points will be difficult to come by, especially against a Denver defense that’s much improved this season. The one thing that the Jets have going for them is that Denver is in a horrendous spot, having to play an early game on the East Coast with big games against the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots coming up. With that being said, I don’t care. Denver could be sleeping for half of this game and still find a way to win. Broncos 31, Jets 16

The Wager: Laying more than a touchdown on the road in the NFL is a good way to land yourself in the poorhouse (long-term, of course). This number is inflated because the oddsmakers know that no one wants any piece of the Jets, and subsequently, you have to pay a premium to back Denver in this one. New York has already failed in some extremely favorable situations this season, but I’m just not going to lay more than a touchdown with a road team in a bad spot. New York also has a tendency to surprise in these type of games. Pass

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Friday Consensus Line: Browns -1 -120, total of 47.5

The Pick: All four of Cleveland’s games this season have come right down to the wire and this looks like another candidate to do so. You’ve probably heard by now that Big Ben owns the Browns, having won 19 of his 21 career starts against Cleveland, but it’s important to note that the gap between these two teams isn’t as wide as it was in years past. With that being said, Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball with relative ease here. Sure, the Steelers struggled last weekend in Jacksonville, but this is a week-to-week league where matchups are key. 

Pittsburgh boasts the No. 3 rusher in the league in Le’Veon Bell (No. 2 before Arian Foster's Thursday night performance), who should have no issues gashing a Browns run defense that surrenders a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Pittsburgh’s running game will open things up for Ben Roethlisberger against a subpar Cleveland secondary that could be without Joe Haden (although Haden hasn’t been good this season either). Cleveland should be able to match that offensive output though. Brian Hoyer continues to prove the naysayers wrong, finding a way to rally the troops week in and week out, including a near improbable comeback in Pittsburgh in Week 1.  

Hoyer should have an easy matchup against a Steelers’ defense that is still without cornerback Ike Taylor and rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier, especially with Ben Tate back in the lineup. Tate looked great in his return to action last week and like his counterpart, should also find running lanes against a defense that is weak at defending the run. With very little separating these two teams right now, I’m tempted to go with the home team, but the Browns’ tendency to fall behind on a weekly basis is concerning. Pittsburgh sweeps its AFC North rival in a tightly-contested affair. Steelers 27, Browns 24

The Wager: Pittsburgh was a 1.5-point favorite in the Westgate advanced line a week ago, and now the Steelers are the underdog. The line value is certainly there with the Steelers, but I really don’t have a strong read on this game. No result would truly shock me here so I’ll stay away. Pass

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Friday Consensus Line: Titans -5, no total posted yet

The Pick: I was thinking about how to approach this write-up and this was the only thing that came to mind:

Titans 24, Jaguars 23

The Wager: In all seriousness, with Jake Locker’s status still up in the air, I have no idea what to do with this game. Unless I see something asinine, I’ll be staying away from this one. Both Jacksonville and Tennessee have made their way into my black book, so I’d prefer to look elsewhere on Sunday and try to watch as little of this game as possible. Pass

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Friday Consensus Line: Falcons -3 -115, total of 54.5

The Pick: The Falcons are a tempting proposition almost every time they play at home. Atlanta is already 2-0 at the Georgia Dome this season, scoring more than 90 points in those two games, and the team will now battle a Chicago defense that simply isn’t very good. Unfortunately for the Falcons though, injuries continue to take their toll. Atlanta was down four offensive line starters last Sunday, three of whom have been placed on injured reserve and are out for the season. This makes things especially difficult on Matt Ryan, who is forced to operate under constant duress. 

Ryan really isn’t aided by a running game either, as the Falcons continue to rely on the aging Steven Jackson, who is well past his prime. This is all of major concern for the Falcons because their defense might just be the worst stop unit in the league. Atlanta is built for the fast track, but Chicago’s offense might be just as good on this type of surface. Jay Cutler can be aggravatingly frustrating at times, but he’s surrounded by weapons that should be able to exploit a Falcons’ defense that ranks 29th in the league in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed. 

Cutler also won’t face much pressure from a front seven that’s recorded just four sacks this season, allowing him to pick apart an Atlanta secondary that is without free safety William Moore. Chicago does have its fair share of issues on the offensive line as well, but Cutler is more elusive than Ryan and is better equipped to deal with any pressure that he may face. The Bears have played well away from Soldier Field this year, minus a collapse in the second half against Carolina last week. Regardless, this seems to be another winnable game for them. Bears 31, Falcons 27

The Wager: Last week, I looked into Jay Cutler’s ATS numbers as a starter in the NFL and they’re not pretty. Betting on Cutler is the equivalent of burning money. I would like to take Chicago here but the truth is that I have no faith in Cutler whatsoever, and the Bears’ wins and losses are directly correlated with how he plays. I came close to a playing this one, but ultimately, this will be another game that I’ll be watching as a casual fan. Pass

Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins

Friday Consensus Line: Packers -3, total of 49

The Pick: Green Bay has posted back-to-back wins over the battered Bears and Vikings, but I’m not ready to hop on board the Packers’ train just yet. The Packers still have some major holes, especially on defense, and I think that Miami is fully capable of exploiting those weaknesses this weekend. Green Bay’s run defense is an atrocity, having given up at least 100 yards rushing in 11 straight games. 

Lamar Miller has filled in admirably for the injured Knowshon Moreno, picking up 5.7 yards per carry this season and should find all sorts of running room against Green Bay’s Swiss cheese front seven. The Dolphins' offensive line also gets some reinforcement this week with the return of Mike Pouncey, who should improve both the running game and pass protection. Ryan Tannehill, who can be extremely frustrating at times, will at least have the luxury of a running game and won’t have to work out of very many unfavorable situations in this one. 

As for slowing down the Packers’ offense, well, that’s easier said than done. One thing Miami has going for it though is its familiarity with Aaron Rodgers, as head coach Joe Philbin was the offensive coordinator in Green Bay from 2007 to 2011. Philbin has had two weeks to prepare for his former quarterback and I trust that he’ll have put together a game plan to keep the former Cal standout in check. The secret to success against Rodgers in recent years has been to disrupt his timing and the Dolphins certainly have the edge rushers to do so. I’ll put the Packers on upset watch this week. Dolphins 26, Packers 23

The Wager: I love playing situational angles, and I think this shapes up for a good one. Philbin’s familiarity with Rodgers is already a plus for Miami, and I think this could be a flat spot for Green Bay as well, having played three straight games against divisional opponents. One role that the Dolphins excel in is the role of the home underdog, beating New England, San Diego and Cincinnati outright in the past two seasons. Dolphins +3

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Friday Consensus Line: Vikings -1.5, total of 43.5

The Pick: Let it be known that the Vikings that were dismantled in Green Bay last Thursday are not the same Vikings that will take the field at home this Sunday. Christian Ponder started in place of the injured Teddy Bridgewater last week, and as we all know (or at least should know by now), Ponder is to quarterbacking what Phil Simms is to tea drinking. Bridgewater’s return will give Minnesota a huge boost, although he’ll be in tough against the league’s No. 1 defense in terms of yards allowed per game (282.4). Offensive coordinator Norv Turner has a lot of faith in Bridgewater and Turner has been known to work wonders with quarterbacks, so there’s a chance Bridgewater could again turn in another successful start this weekend. 

As for the Lions, I’m not sure what their mentality will be like heading into this week, coming off a complete meltdown against the Buffalo Bills. Detroit watched its former head coach get carried off the field in what was one of the more laughable moments in NFL history and now have to get up for another road game in which the team is decimated by injuries. The Lions are expected to be without Calvin Johnson for this contest and running backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are both banged up (listed as questionable). 

The injuries will put immense pressure on Matthew Stafford, who just doesn’t seem to be capable of carrying the offense when Megatron isn’t on the field. Despite what you saw last Thursday, the Vikings still boast a pretty solid secondary that should be able to put the clamps down on Stafford. There are just so many uncertainties with Detroit right now, so I’ll side with the underrated Vikings squad that should be aided by extra rest. Vikings 17, Lions 14

The Wager: It seems like that Lions 35-14 win over the Giants in Week 1 was a decade ago. Detroit has reverted back to the same old mistake prone Lions team that we’ve seen in years past and now they have to hit the road where they’ve been a complete train wreck in recent years. With that being said, I'm not comfortable laying points with the Vikings just yet, especially since I think this will be a close game. Pass

Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Friday Consensus Line: Bengals -6.5, total of 43.5

The Pick: Cincinnati never stood a chance on Sunday night. The team went into New England after the Patriots were humiliated on national TV, and talks of their impending doom were at an all-time high. Well, now the roles are reversed. All of a sudden, people are questioning the Bengals and whether or not they are a legit contender. Now is the time for them to make a statement against a Carolina squad that is perceived to be better than it actually is. The phrase “styles make fights” is commonly thrown around and, in this case, the Panthers' style is the type that could get them knocked out in the first round. 

It’s a well documented fact that Cincinnati can’t defend the run very well, but the Panthers might just possess the league’s worst rushing offense. Carolina has played four straight games without reaching the 100-yard rushing mark and that trend will continue until it gets DeAngelo Williams back in the lineup. The Panthers rallied to beat the Bears last week, but that was more of a Chicago implosion than anything else as the Bears committed four turnovers and took 10 penalties. The Panthers’ offense is way too reliant on Cam Newton and the signal caller is going to have a long day against a Bengals’ secondary that allowed just 5.4 yards per attempt prior to the beatdown in New England. 

On the other side of things, the once-feared Panthers’ defense seems to be a shell of its former self. Carolina has given up an average of 33 points to the Ravens, Steelers and Bears in the last three weeks and is still without suspended defensive lineman Greg Hardy. Andy Dalton can make you pull your hair out at times, but he was stellar at home a year ago, posting a 98.3 QB rating and 20 touchdowns. The loss of A.J. Green to a toe injury will certainly hurt Cincinnati’s offense, but that will force the team to rely heavily on its running game, and that’s certainly a good thing. Blowout alert. Bengals 34, Panthers 10

The Wager: The Bengals have been money at home over the past few seasons and I love the fact that they’re coming off of an embarrassing nationally-televised loss. Carolina, meanwhile, is in a potential flat spot with Ron Rivera beating the team he used to coach for last week. There’s a big talent gap between these two teams and I think this line is very favorable. Bengals -6.5

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Friday Consensus Line: Patriots -3 +100, total of 45

The Pick: Heading into last week, everyone was down on the Patriots and now, heading into this week, everyone thinks the Patriots are Super Bowl contenders again. So which one is it? Well, it’s probably somewhere in between. Credit goes to New England for its bounce back last week against Cincinnati, but we can’t just ignore the team's previous performances this season. The Patriots were done in by two great pass rushes in Miami and Kansas City earlier this year and they now face the league’s best pass rush this week. Buffalo leads the league with 17 sacks and the defense should be able to get after Tom Brady, who sits behind an offensive line that has struggled to pass protect for the vast majority of the season. 

This is all assuming that Jim Schwartz actually takes some time to game plan for this week instead of watching last week’s game against the Lions on repeat. I fully expect the Bills’ defense to have success but I can’t guarantee the same for their offense. Kyle Orton looked more than serviceable last week, leading the Bills back from a 14-0 deficit against one of the league’s better defenses, but let’s not be too quick to forget that this is still Kyle Orton. The son of Byron tossed a brutal pick-6 against Detroit and was lucky to not have been picked off on a couple of other occasions. 

With that being said, Orton is still a monumental upgrade over EJ Manuel, who would be a slim upgrade over a no-armed man. Orton can also lean heavily on his running game against a Patriots’ defense that yields 4.4 yards per carry. It was only two weeks ago that New England made Jamaal Charles look like the best running back in NFL history, so the Patriots will definitely have their hands full with similarly speedy back C.J. Spiller. Ralph Wilson Stadium will be rocking in Buffalo’s first home game with Terry Pegula as its official owner. I think they pull the upset on Sunday. Bills 17, Patriots 16

The Wager: Both teams are in potential flat spots following last week’s victories which would usually be a stay away for me, but I can’t help but believe that this line is wrong. I lined this game as a pick’em, but we’re getting a full field goal with Buffalo at home, presumably because New England looked so good on Sunday night. For the second straight week, I’ll be backing Kyle Orton (*finds vomit bucket* *places vomit bucket next to couch*). Bills +3

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -3 -135, total of 43.5

The Pick: Anyone who thinks this is the same Bucs team from early on this season hasn’t watched the Bucs since their blowout loss in Atlanta. Tampa Bay has undergone a massive transformation in recent weeks with the promotion of Mike Glennon to starting quarterback. Glennon has led the Bucs to 58 points in the last two weeks and now goes up against a Ravens’ defense that frankly, is pretty overrated. Baltimore is third in the league in scoring defense despite being middle of the pack in yards allowed, a sign that a regression may be coming in the near future. 

Glennon generated enough offense to almost knock off the Saints in the Superdome last weekend (say what you want about the Saints but this is not an easy task), so he shouldn’t have much of an issue moving the ball against the sixth-worst pass defense in the league in terms of yards allowed. With Tampa Bay moving the ball with success, it’ll be up to Joe Flacco to match that output. Good luck with that. Flacco continues to be dreadful on the road, as evidenced by the 13 points he put up in Indianapolis last week – the same Indianapolis defense that Ryan Fitzpatrick just carved up on Thursday night. 

Flacco has a 10:16 touchdown-to-interception ratio away from home since the beginning of last season and now gets a Bucs’ defense that has been getting healthier by the week. Middle linebacker Mason Foster is optimistic that he will play this weekend, which would be a huge pickup for the Bucs’ linebacking corps. Baltimore also still has a major issue with left tackle Eugene Monroe sidelined with a knee injury and that spells major trouble against Bucs’ defensive end Michael Johnson, who can definitely get after the quarterback. Another upset lurking here. Bucs 24, Ravens 17

The Wager: Another home dog that looks very appealing here. Tampa Bay is still being valued as if it was the dumpster fire being led by Josh McCown earlier in the season, but this team is much improved. Baltimore laying points on the road against anyone but the league’s bottom feeders is laughable, and I think we’re getting some outstanding value with Tampa. Bucs +3.5

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

Friday Consensus Line: Chargers -7, total of 43

The Pick: Oakland has a lot of things going for it this week. For starters, the Raiders have finally rid themselves of their useless head coach Dennis Allen, and get a fresh start under Tony Sparano, who coached in Miami from 2008 to 2011. Sparano should give the Raiders an immediate boost, especially coming off of a bye week, but it remains to be seen how much a truly awful team can be boosted. Oakland has dropped 10 straight games, the Raiders have the most deplorable roster in football and Derek Carr is about as effective as goggles are to Radioactive Man. 

San Diego continues to overachieve in the eyes of many, but not in my eyes. As I mentioned in last week’s preview, Mike McCoy might just be the best head coach in the NFL. The Chargers seem to be immune to bad spots and injuries, simply because they are so well prepared on a weekly basis. It also helps that Philip Rivers continues to play out of his mind.

I was one of the idiots that wrote Rivers off a couple of years ago when he looked awful, but he has put all the doubters to rest with an impressive 12:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Anyways, there’s not much more to talk about here. San Diego has the better offense, defense, special teams, coaching staff, cheerleaders, custodial staff, uniforms – hell, they have the better everything. Chargers 28, Raiders 10

The Wager: Four straight wins for the Chargers by a combined score of 116-45 might have this spread inflated a bit, especially with Oakland off of a bye, but for all of the reasons mentioned above, I’m not jumping in front of San Diego. In fact, I strongly considered a play on the Chargers because I personally don’t believe this spread is big enough. I don’t think I’ve ever laid a touchdown with the road team in a divisional game though and I’m not going to develop a bad habit of buying high in the NFL. Pass

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks

Friday Consensus Line: Seahawks -8, total of 46.5

The Pick: After being picked by many people to be bottom feeders in the NFC prior to the start of the season, the Cowboys find themselves tied for the best record in the NFL at 4-1. Does that mean they’re good? Nope, it certainly doesn’t. One thing Dallas does have going for it though is its offensive line, which has been dominant for the majority of the season. If there’s one team that may be equipped to deal with Seattle’s strong front seven, it may just be Dallas, although I’m skeptical that any team can have offensive success at CenturyLink Field. 

Tony Romo may be prepared for the crowd noise after essentially playing a road game at home last weekend (the Cowboys had to use silent counts because of the crowd noise), but playing in Seattle is unlike anything else in the league. Romo also has a tendency to telegraph his passes, which could be a recipe for disaster against a ball hawking Seahawks’ secondary. Dallas struggled to move the ball last week against Houston – the first semblance of an actual defense that they’ve faced in a month – so I’m not optimistic about the team's chances to move the ball in Seattle. 

If Dallas can’t score often, it'll be in some major trouble because Seattle is going to put up points. The Seahawks' 27-point performance on Monday Night Football against the Redskins doesn’t look all that impressive, but they were jobbed on several occasions, having three touchdowns called back because of penalties (two of them were highly questionable). The Cowboys' defense ranks second last in terms of yards per carry (5.2) and that spells trouble against a Seahawks’ offense that figures to use Marshawn Lynch heavily this week. I just don’t see how Dallas generates enough stops to keep this game close. Seahawks 34, Cowboys 20

The Wager: The Seahawks came very close to making my board this week but I’m going to lay off. As a Cowboys’ fan, I feel as though I have a pretty good read on their games, but they do have an extra day of rest and there will be motivation to get this win after Romo fumbled away the victory in the Wild Card round of the playoffs eight years ago. At a touchdown or less, I’d consider adding Seattle. Pass

Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals

Friday Consensus Line: No line, two different offshores have -3 and -3.5 +100

The Pick: I won’t be doing you any favors by breaking this game down without knowing who’s starting at quarterback for the Cardinals. Washington’s defensive numbers look better than they are because of their first two games against Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne and because of various members of the Redskins working as referees against Seattle on Monday night. Having to travel to the West Coast following a Monday game against a physical Seahawks team is not a favorable situation at all. Cardinals 27, Redskins 13

The Wager: Again, there is still a major unknown in this game, and that’s why most books have yet to post a line on this one. I might add a Twitter play on the Cardinals this weekend (follow me here), but until then, I’ve got nothing. Pass

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Friday Consensus Line: Eagles -3 +105, total of 50

The Pick: The Eagles could very well be 0-5 right now and that’s not an exaggeration. This is a bad football team that has been lucking out all season, posting an unbelievable seven touchdowns on special teams and defense in its five games. That type of luck is bound to end sooner or later and when it does, Philadelphia is in for a world of hurt. Nick Foles is a bigger train wreck than CBS’s newest analyst, Mike Carey. Foles has already thrown more than twice the amount of interceptions he did a season ago and that number is bound to climb if he continues throwing the ducks that he has been in the past couple of weeks. 

The Eagles received a big boost last weekend getting right tackle Lane Johnson back from suspension, but this is still an offensive line with some major holes, especially at guard. LeSean McCoy has averaged less than three yards per carry this season and that has put immense pressure on the shoulders of Foles, who simply isn’t equipped to handle that pressure. These offensive issues simply can’t be overlooked because the Eagles have a non-existent defense. Linebacker Mychal Kendricks is expected to miss another week due to injury and that spells trouble for a Philadelphia defense that has subpar talent at literally every position. 

The Eagles just allowed Austin Davis to go off for 375 yards, so I doubt they can keep Eli Manning in check. Manning has tossed just one pick in his last three games and is looking a lot more like the quarterback that won two Super Bowls than the one that was a disgrace to the position a year ago. The injury to Rashad Jennings will be a concern for the Giants going forward, but not against an Eagles’ defense that is capable of surrendering 100 yards rushing to a cripple. New York is the only one of these two teams with a defense and that’ll be evident on Sunday night. Giants 31, Eagles 23   

The Wager: This isn’t exactly a value play on the Giants, but as mentioned above, I think they’re the better team and that they match up well with Philadelphia. I’ll take the points. Giants +3

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. Why did they pick me? I have no idea, but nevertheless, I am competing in it. For the second straight week, I went 3-2 with my selections, although that could have easily been 5-0. My losses came on the Titans -1.5, who were victims of one of the biggest comebacks in NFL history, and on the Redskins +7, who surrendered a field goal inside the last 30 seconds of the game thanks to a minor miracle from Russell Wilson on the final drive. Oh well.

I will certainly have Cincinnati on my card this week, but other than that, I haven’t settled on any other plays. Most of the home underdogs – Dolphins, Vikings, Bills, Bucs, Rams – are in play for me right now, as well as the Giants and possibly the Seahawks. All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after they’re submitted on Friday evening.

Picks Summary