Williamson: Is there a true No. 1 receiver in this draft class?
Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns and spent the last 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast."
The term “No. 1 receiver” is thrown around a lot by those who cover the NFL. But the reality is, there are not nearly enough No. 1 receivers to go around. There are not 32 of them, one for each team. In actuality, there are really somewhere in the neighborhood of a dozen to 15 wide receivers who fit those qualifications. Calvin Johnson was a quintessential No. 1 receiver, as are Julio Jones and Dez Bryant. Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham are No. 1s for sure, but with their size, they are outliers.
There isn't an overall shortage of wideouts in the NFL right now, as a bevy of exceptional players at the position have invaded the league of late from the college ranks. But with the abundance of three- and four-wide receiver sets in today’s NFL, there are as many as 16 teams, half the league, which should be looking to upgrade the position this offseason.
With this very poor class of upcoming free-agent wide receivers, most teams will have to look to the draft for their reinforcements. Now, there is much more studying to be done on my end of these draft prospects, but, at first glance, there doesn’t look to be a No. 1 receiver in the group.
Unlike the past several drafts that sent the league such stars as Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Allen Robinson, and Amari Cooper, this class doesn’t have the size/speed monsters that fit the mold. The upcoming combine will help clarify that, so let's investigate the traits we want to see from several of the top wide receiver prospects in Indianapolis that'll push them closer to such a distinction, if they are to get there at all.
Top prospect
As it stands today, it appears Laquon Treadwell is the only surefire first-round pick at wide receiver. But the big question with Treadwell, and what is likely to separate him from the likes of No. 1 receivers like Jones and Bryant, is his pure speed. Unfortunately, we are going to have to wait for Treadwell’s pro day before we get a verified time on him, but many seem to think he will clock in at the 4.6s, which probably excludes him from the No. 1 receiver club.
Speed demons
Speed isn’t a problem for Will Fuller or Corey Coleman. These two, especially Fuller (who might post the best 40 time at the combine), can fly. But Fuller is very slightly built and really struggles with drops, which lends obvious comparisons to Ted Ginn. He needs to excel catching the football and scouts will get a better feel in Indianapolis if his body type can pack on more muscle.
As for Coleman, he is more of an outside-the-numbers wideout, and doesn’t have the body to take a pounding at the next level consistently from the slot. Coleman’s size will always be somewhat of an issue against outside press coverage and, like Fuller, his hands are suspect, so catching the ball cleanly in combine drills will be important for him.
Missing pieces
Josh Doctson has great height and body control, but he lacks an extra gear and is also very lean. A good 40 time would help his stock immensely and, like Fuller, evaluators will be interested in his body structure.
Sterling Shepard is lightning quick and a fabulous route runner. In these areas he has some similarities to the Steelers' Brown. But projecting an undersized receiver to become the next Brown as a true No. 1 is a leap that few should ever take.
Michael Thomas (of Ohio State, not Southern Miss) has some similarities to Treadwell, but isn’t nearly as physical on tape. He, too, has some speed concerns he could ease in Indianapolis if he posts a good 40 time.
High upside
Outside of Treadwell, the two receivers in this class who could approach No. 1 status are Braxton Miller and Tyler Boyd. Miller truly is the athletic specimen that puts him on par with the greats at the position, and he certainly possesses more quickness than someone like Evans. But he has a ton of work to do since most of his time in college was spent at quarterback. He only caught 26 passes at Ohio State. However, Miller was the talk of the Senior Bowl and his skills are tantalizing.
Boyd was far more productive, especially in 2014. Some have concerns about his speed and he could stand to add more muscle to his frame, but overall, Boyd doesn’t have the huge looming question mark around one specific area of his game. However, Boyd doesn’t have one trait that wows you. But if he lights up the combine, that could change. Still, his physical gifts are not on par with receivers like Watkins or Cooper.