Andersen a gamble worth taking for Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs needed a goalie. The Anaheim Ducks had two capable ones, one of them without a contract. Say hello to Frederik Andersen, Toronto, your new No. 1 'tender.
After trading a first-round pick in 2016 acquired from the Penguins in the trade for Stanley Cup-winner Phil Kessel, as well as a second-round pick of their own in 2017, the Maple Leafs locked restricted free agent Andersen up for five seasons at $5 million per. And make no mistake, that's a lot of dough for a goalie who will be 27 when the 2016-17 season begins, and who's only made 114 career starts.
But it had to be done. Jonathan Bernier wasn't - isn't - the answer. And so ends that experiment, while a new one begins.
An inexact science
Goalies are weird. Finding a good one is hard. Drafting an elite one even harder. Toronto, where goalies go to die, knows that best.
The Maple Leafs took a chance on Southern California-based Bernier when he had 54 starts and a .912 save percentage to his name. In other words, if you're worried about Andersen's body of work, Bernier's CV should have kept you awake at night.
Andersen, another goalie who was living the SoCal dream, arrives in the north having made 125 starts - all with the Ducks over the past three seasons, when they averaged 109 points - and with a .918 save percentage. When he was between the pipes, the Ducks rarely lost - Andersen leaves Anaheim with a 77-26-12 record. He's in for a reality check in Toronto, no doubt.
Three-year sample
Here's what Bernier and Andersen have done over the past three years:
| Goalie | Season | GS | SV% | SA | SV | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernier | 2013-14 | 49 | .923 | 1787 | 1649 | 1 |
| Andersen | 2013-14 | 24 | .923 | 783 | 723 | 0 |
| Bernier | 2014-15 | 55 | .912 | 1735 | 1583 | 2 |
| Andersen | 2014-15 | 53 | .914 | 1436 | 1313 | 3 |
| Bernier | 2015-16 | 36 | .908 | 1114 | 1011 | 3 |
| Andersen | 2015-16 | 37 | .919 | 1086 | 998 | 3 |
Career Totals
| Goalie | GS | SV% | SA | SV | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernier | 140 | .915 | 4636 | 4243 | 6 |
| Andersen | 114 | .918 | 3305 | 3034 | 6 |
The Maple Leafs immediately signed Bernier to a two-year, $5.8-million extension after trading for him from the Los Angeles Kings. He had a strong first season in the blue and white, as he clearly enjoyed the opportunity to play on a regular basis. His second season didn't go as smoothly, but Randy Carlyle's final months in Toronto were a trainwreck. No goalie would have survived.
In fact, Bernier and Andersen's 2014-15 statistics tell a story - one of an elite team and one of a horrific team. Bernier made two more starts than Andersen that season and saw 299 more pucks. He averaged 31.5 shots against per start in '14-15, while Andersen averaged 27.1. And you better believe the chances the Maple Leafs were giving up were of much higher quality than the Ducks'. That Bernier finished with a .912 save percentage to Andersen's .914 is, in a way, impressive.
All that work seemingly ruined Bernier. After cashing in on a two-year, $8.3-million extension, Bernier had the worst season of his career in 2015-16. However, you can see in the shot totals that Mike Babcock's Maple Leafs tightened things up. Bernier saw an average of 30.9 shots this past season, while Andersen, on a far-superior Ducks team, faced 29.3 per night. Anyone who watched any Maple Leafs hockey last season can attest to the fact the team gave up far fewer 10-bell chances in their own zone. After Carlyle, it was almost beautiful to watch: a system in place, Toronto with the puck.
Long story short: who knows which goalie's better. All we know is that Toronto officially gave up on Bernier on Monday, while handing the reins to Andersen. Anyone who tells you that's good or bad, one way or the other, actually has no idea. Time will tell. Andersen's deal could blow up in Toronto's face. It could work out. Let's talk in three years. Until then, enjoy the roll of the dice.
When does the window open?
The Maple Leafs bottomed out last season. The kids came up, Auston Matthews is next, Morgan Rielly and Nazem Kadri are signed long term, and though Steven Stamkos is not a Maple Leaf currently, to many Toronto supporters, he already is.
General manager Lou Lamoriello came to Toronto from a New Jersey Devils team that employed Martin Brodeur and Cory Schneider. One tire fire of a season was enough for him to fold on Bernier. More importantly, Lamoriello has been impressed by what Andersen has done in the playoffs, where he has a .916 save percentage in 28 starts.
When Lamoriello traded for Schneider, he had been splitting the crease with Roberto Luongo and had never made more than 30 starts in a season. That trade worked out well.
Lamoriello knows that it all starts from the crease. He saw what Babcock was able to get out of a rag-tag roster - the Maple Leafs, for the first time in years, played competitive hockey. And they still finished last. It worked perfectly.
The plan remains in place, and now it includes a goalie. Another goalie. And it's almost as simple as standing Bernier and Andersen next to one another. Bernier's 6-foot and 184 pounds. Andersen's 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds. Lamoriello can say Andersen's more "athletic" until he's blue in the face - he's going with the goalie who can cover more of the net.
Sure. Why not.
Good ifs
If William Nylander's ready, if Matthews is the one, if Stamkos is the next Maple Leafs captain, and if Andersen's the answer in the crease, perhaps Toronto can compete a lot quicker than initially anticipated.
While there are questions to the Andersen trade, Toronto dealt from a position of strength - surplus draft picks (which, in and of itself, is a miracle with respect to this franchise). It's crazy to think, but it's almost as if the Maple Leafs' new regime has already earned the benefit of the doubt.
Long live the Shanaplan.