Projecting Mike Hoffman's next contract

Mike Hoffman is no stranger to the NHL's arbitration process.

For the second straight summer, the Ottawa Senators winger has filed for arbitration, with both sides expected to ramp up talks with a view to a long-term contract, according to Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen.

Related: 24 players file for salary arbitration

Here's a look at what Hoffman's next deal might look like.

The background

Selected in the fifth round of the 2009 NHL Draft (130th overall), Hoffman made the jump to the NHL late in the 2013-14 season, establishing himself as a regular in the Senators' lineup at the beginning of the next season after four years in the AHL.

Last summer, Hoffman was reportedly seeking $3.4 million in arbitration on the strength of a team-leading 27-goal campaign, while the Senators were believed to be offering $1.75 million. Hoffman was eventually awarded a one-year, $2-million contract, and, having played that out, can become an unrestricted free agent in 2017 if he and the club settle for another one-year deal.

For the time being, he's a restricted free agent, and no longer open to sign an offer sheet with another team after having filed for arbitration.

The numbers

In short, Hoffman has been one of the highest-scoring forwards at 5-on-5 over the past two seasons.

The 26-year-old is tied for the seventh-highest goal total among all players in that situation, with nine high-paid forwards ahead of him on that list.

(Courtesy: Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com)

The players also with 39 goals are Matt Duchene, Max Pacioretty, and James Neal, all of whom only secure Hoffman's place among the league's high-end talent.

In total, Hoffman has scored 56 goals over the past two seasons, leading the Senators in each while displaying a deadly combination of skill and speed that's desperately needed in Ottawa.

In terms of assists, Hoffman recorded 30 in 2015-16, up from 21 the year before. And for his career he's averaging 26 goals and 50 points for every 82 games played.

The knock

Despite Hoffman's clear scoring prowess, former Ottawa head coach Dave Cameron didn't seem to trust the winger, especially in his own end.

New bench boss Guy Boucher admitted Hoffman needs to work on developing a more complete game, albeit while heaping praise on his former junior player.

"I think Mike has shown great things in the NHL. He was in the All-Star Game. Let's focus on his strengths, the fact he's a game-breaker. He can shoot, score, and change the game," Boucher told Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen.

"Does he have things he can improve? Of course, but I'm so excited to be coaching him again. I know him. I know what to do with this guy and I know how to surround him."

Hoffman averaged only 17:33 of ice time, slotting him 104th among all NHL forwards.

The comparables

In the report mentioned above citing upcoming contract talks between Hoffman and the Senators, Ken Warren offers two players that serve as rough comparables when assessing what Hoffman might command on a new deal: Gustav Nyquist of the Detroit Red Wings and Reilly Smith of the Florida Panthers.

The 26-year-old Nyquist signed a four-year, $19-million extension in 2016 and has scored 44 goals over the past two seasons - 20 of which came at 5-on-5.

Smith, 25, recently signed a five-year, $25-million extension that won't kick in until the 2017-18 season after recording a career-high 25 goals this past season. Over the past two seasons, he's scored 38 - 29 of which came at 5-on-5.

Nyquist's $4.75-million cap hit ranks him 82nd among all forwards for 2016-17. Considering Hoffman's production rate is higher, and based on his importance to the Senators as the team's leading goal-scorer two years running, the Ottawa forward should rank at least within the top 90, meaning he should be paid as a first-line winger.

The contract

So what should Hoffman reasonably expect to command on his next deal?

Based on his sparkling yet limited track record (having not yet hit the 200-game mark for his career), questions about his defensive game and a few comparable contracts, a five-year, $27.5-million deal ($5.5 million average annual valuation) seems entirely reasonable for a player of Hoffman's skill set.

When one considers the amount of money tossed at free agents seemingly on the decline on July 1 (see: David Backes, Andrew Ladd), that would be a nice deal for the Senators, making Hoffman the team's second-highest paid forward, behind Bobby Ryan ($7.25 million cap hit) and ahead of Mark Stone and Kyle Turris ($3.5 million each per season).

Whether the two sides can reach a deal prior to arbitration remains to be seen, but under Boucher's guidance, Hoffman's star is only set to rise, and he would command a high amount of attention as a UFA in 2017.

Ottawa, then, would be well served by resolving this contract situation sooner than later.