Projecting Nikita Kucherov's next contract

Nikita Kucherov can no longer be had at a discount rate.

The Tampa Bay Lightning's dynamic scorer will arrive at the bargaining table for the first time this summer after completing his obligatory entry-level term as the NHL's production-on-the-dollar king.

Here's a look at what his next, much more proportionate contract might look like:

The background

The 58th overall selection five years back, Kucherov played one season in Russia, plus another in Major Junior, before starting his entry-level clock one month into the 2013-14 season.

He racked up 42 points in 69 games split between Tampa Bay and the farm before returning the next season - his first full year in the top flight - as one of the NHL's most productive players. He collected 3.13 points per 60 minutes in all situations, finishing with 29 goals and 64 points, and worked out of the most effective statistical trio in hockey. Scoring then accelerated in the playoffs; he netted 10 goals and 22 points in Tampa's run to the Stanley Cup Final.

Despite a woeful start to his third campaign, in which he mustered just three points in October, Kucherov stormed back to eclipse his sophomore work. He scored at over a point-per-game over the final five months, turning in 30 goals and 66 points in five fewer games.

Kucherov activated bonuses in each season, but still cost less than $900,000 to deploy.

The numbers

Kucherov's 131 points over the last two seasons ranks just outside the top 20 NHL wide, and his 2.99 points per 60 minutes of ice ranks seventh among players who appeared in both seasons.

But while those numbers will establish the bar in negotiations, it is his production in relation to the league's best which underscores how valuable he's been to the Lightning.

Check out the cost of Kucherov's production compared to the top 10 scorers, as well as teammate Steven Stamkos, whom the Bolts just committed $68 million to:

The Calgary Flames' Johnny Gaudreau, also restricted after completing his entry-level deal, is the only other comparable player inside the top 25. He tallied 11 points more than Kucherov, but cost almost $1 million more in performance bonuses.

The knock

This isn't a player with shortfalls; Kucherov has been the league's model of efficiency.

His presence triggering a greater even-strength production rate than Jamie Benn, Kucherov's 63 percent Goals For clip ranks highest among players who logged 2000 minutes over the last two seasons, and he continues to drive possession at the very top percentile.

Kucherov owns a high shooting percentage, which might give some pause, but with one of the most dangerous releases in the sport, his shot should provide results above standard.

What's more, however, has been his postseason play. Kucherov's notched 42 points in 45 games, and almost a half goal per game, which ranks second among active players.

The comparables

Filip Forsberg, who rather conveniently just signed a 6-year, $36-million deal with the Nashville Predators, is his closest comparable.

Both posted 60-plus point campaigns in the final two years of their entry-level deals after splitting duties between the big club and the American Hockey League in their first qualified seasons.

The wingers each hit the 30-mark in their third years, but didn't make massive gains from their sophomore totals, and both have similarly impressive underlying numbers.

The contract

It'll be incredibly challenging for Kucherov's camp to drive his price beyond that of Forsberg's, even with stellar postseason stats in their back pocket.

The precedent feeds right into the hand of Steve Yzerman, who with a couple days to spare before Stamkos hit unrestricted free agency, was able to have the superstar sign at amount well below market value.

With a major commitment to No. 1 defender Victor Hedman made a few days after the Stamkos signing, and a collection of restricted free agents still to follow, Yzerman must work to retain each and every asset at a marked-down figure.

Kucherov signs a seven-year, $42-million deal.