Squad Up Daily NHL Fantasy Dose: Use Blue Jackets' depth against tired Canadiens
Russell LaBounty / USA TODAY Sports
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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Tuesday, Feb. 28 (all advanced statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and apply to 5v5 situations):
Dynamic Duos
- LW Nick Foligno (44K) & C Alexander Wennberg (38K), Blue Jackets (at Canadiens): The Canadiens return home following an overtime victory over the New Jersey Devils, Monday. The lack of rest will further test their poor forward depth. Columbus' third line has a Corsi For rating of 55.17 percent, and they played 21.24 percent of all 5v5 minutes last game. Montreal's has just been assembled.
- C Evgeni Malkin (77K) & RW Phil Kessel (57K), Penguins (at Stars): Malkin, Kessel and LW Chris Kunitz played 16.98 percent of 5v5 minutes in the Penguins' most recent game. The Stars have been allowing 11.21 opponent scoring chances per 60 minutes since Feb. 1, the third-highest rate in the league. Their 3.09 expected goals allowed per 60 is second most.
- LW Jonathan Huberdeau (55K) & C Aleksander Barkov (64K), Panthers (vs. Hurricanes): The Hurricanes have been expected to allow 2.78 goals on 8.32 scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5v5 play since Feb. 1. Floriday's 'first' line has been used less than the second line of LW Jussi Jokinen, C Vincent Trocheck and RW Reilly Smith at 5v5, but they remain the top power-play unit.
Goalie Breakdown
- TARGET - Ryan Miller (94K), Canucks (vs. Red Wings): Miller's moderately expensive following a recent run of five starts where he allowed three or more goals in four of the five appearances. The Red Wings are averaging 9.98 scoring chances per 60 minutes but are expected to score just 2.52 goals.
- BARGAIN - Ben Bishop (75K), Kings (at Flames): Bishop is the minimum salary entering his expected debut for the Kings. He allowed just six goals in five February starts and picked up his first shutout of the season. Los Angeles is allowing fewer scoring chances, goals and shots on goal per 60 minutes than Tampa Bay this season.
- FADE - Petr Mrazek (81K), Red Wings (at Canucks): The Canucks average a moderate 7.35 scoring chances per 60 minutes but average just 27.44 SOG per 60 minutes. Mrazek won't be able to rack up enough saves to overcome the detriment of just a couple goals allowed.
- CONTRARIAN - Darcy Kuemper (78K), Wild (at Jets): Kuemper is expected to replace G Devan Dubnyk for the second half of Minnesota's back-to-back. The Wild allow 31.08 shots on goal per 60 minutes but just 5.97 scoring chances at 5v5. He represents a significant drop from Dubnyk's talent, but he has made 30-plus saves in five of his past seven games.
Bargain Plays
- LW Peter Cehlarik (27K), Bruins (vs. Coyotes): Cehlarik is easily the most affordable member of the Bruins' top-six forwards. He also comes with the lowest upside, but if he can replicate his 17:48 of ice time in his most recent game he'll have a good shot of returning value against the Coyotes' porous defense. The line of Cehlarik, C David Krejci and RW David Pastrnak have a CF% of 52.43.
- C Christian Dvorak (25K), Coyotes (at Bruins): Dvorak should be given the first opportunity to replace C Martin Hanzal as the Coyotes' first-line center. He is also likely to move from the second power-play unit to the top trio with the man advantage. He had two SOG in each of his past two games with the count likely to rise with more ice time.
- RW Craig Smith (27K), Predators (at Sabres): Smith has more shots on goal in February than any other month this season, tallying at least two in each of his past five games. He has played between 11:50 and 16:09 during the span, with the majority of his 5v5 time coming on the right side of C Mike Fisher and LW Kevin Fiala. The three have a CF% of 55.36 and face a Sabres team with a rating of just 46.84 for the season.
Top Fades
- C Jonathan Marchessault (46K), Panthers (vs. Hurricanes): Marchessault has remained a fantasy asset since the return of Huberdeau to Florida's top line. A lot of his retained value has come via his role on the point on the top power-play unit. The Hurricanes, however, allow the lowest power-play conversion rate in the league, further limiting Marchessault's potential.
- D Dustin Byfuglien (62K), Jets (vs. Wild): While a high shot on goal count is typically all owners seek in a defenseman, Byfuglien's lofty salary requires some point production. As stated above, the Wild are among the league's best teams at limiting scoring chances, with Byfuglien unlikely to pose a threat with his average shot distance of more than 40 feet.
- RW David Pastrnak (75K), Bruins (vs. Coyotes): Pastrnak has oddly been bumped from his spot on the first line with LW Brad Marchand and C Patrice Bergeron and joins Cehlarik and Krejci on line two. While he'll still be playing with a top-tier center, he won't have quite the same upside indicative of his salary.
Contrarian Options
- D Colton Parayko (34K), Blues (vs. Oilers): Parayko should take over the majority of the offensive role vacated by D Kevin Shattenkirk. The Oilers rank just 23rd in penalty-kill percentage. Nine of his 28 points on the season have come via the man advantage.
- C Nathan MacKinnon (49K), Avalanche (at Flyers): MacKinnon is having a disastrous season as part of an even worse year for the Avalanche. He did notch seven SOG in his past two games, playing a high of 21:08. The Flyers allow 3.00 goals per game, ranking fifth-worst in the NHL.
- LW Jason Zucker (37K), Wild (at Jets): Zucker is expected to replace LW Zach Parise on the top line. While he has a lower offensive ceiling, he still has 19 goals and 42 points on the season, and he provides more blocked shots and hits than Parise, translating to a higher floor in equal ice time.
(Photos courtesy Action Images)