Projecting David Pastrnak's next contract

Among the host of restricted free agents who'll be seeking new contracts this summer, David Pastrnak's case should be as open and shut as they come.

In just his third NHL season, the Boston Bruins winger is already displaying star potential, with the look of a potential franchise cornerstone.

Pastrnak, who turns 21 on May 25, is causing many to question how he dropped to 25th overall at the 2014 NHL Draft. Among all players from that class, he ranks first in career goals (56) and second in total points (116), trailing Edmonton's Leon Draisaitl by only nine while appearing in 18 fewer games.

Pastrnak's career totals have been dramatically boosted by the 31 goals (tied for sixth among all players) and 32 assists he's recorded this season, which have him among the top 20 point producers in the NHL.

With all that in mind, Pastrnak deserves a sizable extension - both in terms of length and dollars.

Consider the comparables

Here's a look at six players who, over the past two offseasons, have signed deals worth at least $6 million annually with a minimum length of six years:

Of that group, only Tarasenko and Scheifele have put up more points than Pastrnak this season, and, as pointed out lower down, few in recent years have put up comparable numbers at his age.

A contract in the range above, then, wouldn't be a crazy ask on Pastrnak's part.

What they're saying in Boston

Ty Anderson of WEEI shed some light on just how impressive Pastrnak's season has been:

With 30 goals (now 31) and 32 helpers on the season, Pastrnak becomes the 10th player since 2005 to have recorded a 30-goal, 30-assist season before the age of 21.

The other names on that list? Patrice Bergeron, Sidney Crosby, Anze Kopitar, Evgeni Malkin, Sean Monahan, Alex Ovechkin, Jeff Skinner, Steven Stamkos, and Jonathan Toews. Crosby and Stamkos were the only two of that group to accomplish the feat twice.

And here's CSNNE's DJ Bean with important insight as to where the Bruins and Pastrnak stand:

Both sides are interested in a long-term deal rather than a bridge contract. The best news of all for the Bruins is that Pastrnak’s camp is not insisting on Vladimir Tarasenko as a comparable.

Rather, they feel the most accurate comps are Filip Forsberg, Sean Monahan, and Mark Scheifele, all of whom signed new contracts off their entry level deals last offseason.

It’s been reported that the cap won’t go up much, if at all, from the $73 million it is this season. That means that the Bruins could conceivably start with one of these contracts and perhaps not be far off from the one that could keep Pastrnak in Boston.

Even back in November, Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe argued in favor of a long-term extension:

Long-term deals aren’t always ideal. Even a star like Marchand carries risk at the end of his eight-year extension. In the final season of his deal, Marchand will be 36 years old, his precious wheels likely to be spinning at a lower RPM.

Pastrnak, however, has yet to approach his peak performance. Even if he scores the eight-year maximum, he will still be 28 at the extension’s conclusion, still well within his window of high-level play.

The Bruins do not have to lock up Pastrnak. He will not be eligible for arbitration when his entry-level deal expires. But making him a long-term centerpiece of their future is the right thing to do. He’s earned it.

All signs, then, point to Pastrnak cashing in.

Pay the man

In light of how the Bruins have handled their young players in recent years - most notably Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton - the club can ill afford to mess around with another budding star.

David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes, and Brad Marchand will all make between $6 million and $7.25 million next season; given that Pastrnak has certainly become just as integral to the forward group, he deserves to be compensated as such.

Boston has already cleared cap space, and more money should come off the books thanks to expiring contracts. Ryan Spooner is also set for RFA status, but he won't be due for a huge raise over the $950,000 on his current deal.

If it's true that Pastrnak's camp will point to Forsberg and Scheifele, rather than Tarasenko, as comparisons, then a contract worth $42.7 million over seven years should be on the table as soon as possible. That would put Pastrnak on the books for a $6.1-million cap hit - less than Marchand and more than Backes.

Your move, Bruins.