Projecting Leon Draisaitl's next contract
Leon Draisaitl is in line for a hefty raise, and he certainly deserves it.
The 21-year-old broke out in a big way this season, helping the Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs for the first time in 11 years, then shining in the postseason.
Draisaitl is a pending restricted free agent, having just completed the third year of his entry-level deal.
The Oilers will have the right to match if another team decides to file an offer sheet, but general manager Peter Chiarelli said Tuesday that getting Draisaitl signed is one of the club's top priorities this summer.
Here's a look at the factors at play in his looming negotiations:
The body of work
Draisaitl has taken steps forward in each of his three NHL seasons, finishing second on Edmonton with 29 goals and 77 points while playing every game in 2016-17.
He posted six goals and 16 points in 13 playoff contests this spring, including a five-point explosion in a Game 6 blowout of the Anaheim Ducks.
The 2014 third overall pick notched 19 goals and 51 points in 72 games last season.
He doesn't have a permanent position at the moment, but there's no doubt he provides a valuable blend of size and skill up front.
The comparables
Draisaitl is likely looking at a new deal with a starting point in the $6 million per season range, based on contract extensions recently signed by other players of his ilk.
There are several previous long-term pacts that could be used to set the bar for his next contract:
| Player | Team | Length (Yrs) | Value ($M) | AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau | Flames | 6 | 40.5 | 6.75 |
| Mark Scheifele | Jets | 8 | 49 | 6.125 |
| Filip Forsberg | Predators | 6 | 36 | 6 |
| Aleksander Barkov | Panthers | 6 | 35.4 | 5.9 |
Gaudreau is on the high end here, and while he doesn't align with Draisaitl in terms of size or preferred position, his deal is still useful as a reference point.
Forsberg signed his deal last June after leading the Nashville Predators in scoring with 33 goals and 64 points.
Barkov has plenty in common with Draisaitl, as a left-shooting center over six feet tall who weighs over 210 pounds.
His extension came in January 2016, so his cap hit is lower than the other deals because of a lower cap and the natural escalation of salaries since then, but he was in the midst of a 28-goal, 59-point campaign at the time.
That Connor guy
Chiarelli wants to get Draisaitl's deal done, but he has a bigger fish to fry first.
The Oilers GM said Tuesday that he wants to sign Connor McDavid to an extension beforehand, which is understandable even though the Hart Trophy finalist and soon-to-be Art Ross Trophy recipient won't be an RFA until after next season.
McDavid is probably going to cost the Oilers at least $10 million per season, but they should still have room to reward Draisaitl for his steady development.
One likely concern for the Draisaitl camp, though, is that their client's production this season was largely tied to McDavid, who he flanked on the right wing for the majority of the campaign.
The counterpoint will surely be that Draisaitl showed he can succeed without McDavid, too.
The German forward produced when head coach Todd McLellan separated him from McDavid and used him as a center late in the Oilers' playoff run, but it remains to be seen whether the long-term plan puts him back on the wing or down the middle.