Why Tuukka Rask is no longer an elite goalie
Over the last handful of years there have been some constants with the Boston Bruins: Patrice Bergeron will win faceoffs, Brad Marchand will piss off the opposition, and Tuukka Rask will pester opposing shooters.
For the most part, this still remains the case today, albeit with one asterisk; Rask has not been the stellar goaltender that fans have come to expect.
Since collecting the Vezina Trophy during the 2013-14 campaign, Rask's play has been quietly declining. He remains a steady option for the Bruins and doesn't deserve to be run out of town, but many of the underlying numbers are quite telling.
Since being named the league's top goaltender three seasons ago, Rask has put up a respectable 105-69-28 record in 210 games, but claims a save percentage of .917 and a goals-against average of 2.39. Those totals are just the 22nd- and 18th-best, respectively, among all goaltenders to play at least 50 games - fair, but not elite. His even-strength save percentage over that time sits at .923, good enough for only the 26th spot.
Of course, there is the quality of shots Rask has faced over the last three years. Once again, the numbers are alarming.
| Category | Stat (Rank) |
|---|---|
| LDSV% | 98.41 (8th) |
| LDSA | 2 331 (2nd) |
| MDSV% | 91.43 (45th) |
| MDSA | 1 482 (2nd) |
| HDSV% | 75.62 (56th) |
| HDSA | 730 (12th) |
Among the 60 goalies to play at least 2,500 minutes at 5-on-5.
Here you can see Rask has faced the second-most low-danger and mid-danger shots among qualified goalies, but while his low-danger save percentage ranks high, the better the quality of chances, the lower Rask ranks - much lower.
Among all 60 goalies to play at least 2,500 minutes Rask has the 45th- and 56th- ranked mid-danger and high-danger save percentages at 5-on-5, respectively.
What makes these numbers so troublesome is how they compare to the three-year span from 2011-12 to the 2013-14 campaign.
During those three years, Rask boasted the top save percentage and even-strength save percentage at .929 and .938 marks, respectively, while also accumulating a 2.03 goals-against average, good enough for third overall.
The shot-quality metrics were also much more in his favor during that time.
| Category | Stat (Rank) |
|---|---|
| LDSV% | 97.96 (21st) |
| LDSA | 1 326 (17th) |
| MDSV% | 92.03 (26th) |
| MDSA | 816 (23rd) |
| HDSV% | 84 (2nd) |
| HDSA | 425 (26th) |
Among the 47 goalies to play at least 2,500 minutes at 5-on-5.
What's most startling here is that Rask - unlike in recent years - actually thrived in high-danger situations, stopping the second-highest percentage of high-danger shots in the league.
It's worth noting that Rask faced far fewer shots against across the board during this time, which is due in part to the fact Tim Thomas played the majority of games during the 2011-12 season.
All things considered, it's quite evident that Rask has seen a drop in his play. That being said, the Bruins are no longer the team they once were. Zdeno Chara has begun to show his age, the team's defense corps is not nearly as strong, and overall, the team no longer thrives playing a defensive brand of hockey.
All of this can impact Rask's play, but it can't explain it all. This season, Rask is off to a 3-6-2 start in 11 games, owning a 2.79 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage. Consequently, the Bruins sit just four points above the Eastern Conference basement.
At just 30 years old, Rask should not be seeing this type of regression solely due to aging. He remains under contract for the next three seasons and will make $7 million per year; that's elite money for a goaltender that no longer should be considered as such.