Edmonton dreaming: Breaking down the Oilers' playoff chances
Whether Cam Talbot meant for it to come across that way or not, he provided the hockey world with one of the hottest takes of the season on Monday.
The Edmonton Oilers netminder went on record saying his struggling team is going to make the playoffs.
"We're going to play like our lives are on the line every single night," he said, according to Sportsnet's Mark Spector. "Until eight teams have an 'X' beside their name, we're not out of it. That's how we have to approach it."
Of course, any fan would would hope players of their respective team aren't going to wallow in pity and tell the public: "There's no hope in hell we're going to make the playoffs."
However, with the Oilers sitting 10 points out of the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference, the fact of the matter is that in order for Talbot's premonition to come true, things have to go well for the Oilers - like, extremely.
Looking back on last season, the Nashville Predators and Calgary Flames tied for the final wild-card spot with 94 points each - with the Flames slotting ahead of the Predators.
The Oilers currently have 47 points from 49 games. If the 94-point plateau holds up again this season, they would need another 47 from just 33 remaining matchups.
To put that into perspective, the team would need to go on a stretch equivalent to 20-6-7, or a 116-point pace over 82 games, the same rate at which the Vegas Golden Knights are going this season.
Now, if that seems like a pipe dream, things are about to get a whole lot worse as several teams vying for that final playoff spot are on pace to finish with more than 94 points.
| Current Position | Team | Points | 82-game Point Pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd in Pacific | Flames | 58 | 97 |
| 1st wild-card | Avalanche | 57 | 97 |
| 9th | Kings | 57 | 95 |
| 10th | Wild | 57 | 95 |
So, if these four teams currently slotted ahead of the Oilers maintain their current pace, Edmonton will need to tally 50 points in its final 33 games to slide into the final playoff spot.
That's a record equivalent to 22-5-6. For context, the Oilers have just 22 wins in 49 games this season. It's also worth noting a record such as this averaged over 82 games would be 124 points, more than any team is on pace for this season, including the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are set for 118 points at their current rate.
If things weren't tough enough for the Oilers, their remaining schedule won't do them any favors. They will play the Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, and Anaheim Ducks three times each - teams the Oilers are chasing, leaving no room to falter.
On top of that, they also play the Lightning and the Golden Knights twice each for good measure.
Talbot claiming the team will make the playoffs is a great rallying cry for a club that has had very little to celebrate this season. However, the Oilers will likely need to go on a streak of epic proportions to make that happen, and with all things considered, it's hard to envision a scenario where everything falls into place so perfectly.