The Carlson effect: Projecting Drew Doughty's next contract
Drew Doughty had to be over the moon seeing what John Carlson got from the Washington Capitals on Sunday night.
The Los Angeles Kings' star defenseman was already in line for a sizable raise on his next deal, but Carlson's eight-year, $64-million agreement bodes even better for Doughty, who has one year left at $7 million and can begin negotiating an extension on July 1.
Erik Karlsson is in the same boat as Doughty, with one more season left on his current contract at $6.5 million, but his future remains unclear (and his payday could balloon significantly if he lands with a team with significant cap flexibility like the Vegas Golden Knights), so that deal is a bit more difficult to predict.
As for Doughty, the Kings will have their work cut out for them in terms of clearing cap space, especially after signing Ilya Kovalchuk - but they'll clearly do whatever it takes to get their franchise blue-liner locked in long term.
Let's take a look at the factors that what will undoubtedly impact Doughty's negotiations:
The comparables
| Player | Age | Cap Hit | Years | Total Value | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.K. Subban | 29 | $9M | 8 | $72M | 4 |
| Brent Burns | 33 | $8M | 8 | $64M | 7 |
| John Carlson | 28 | $8M | 8 | $64M | 8 |
| Erik Karlsson | 28 | $6.5M | 7 | $45.5M | 1 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 26 | $5.5M | 6 | $33M | 1 |
P.K. Subban's contract is the richest among NHL defensemen, and Carlson's new one puts him into a tie with Brent Burns for second-richest.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson and the Arizona Coyotes reportedly have a verbal agreement on an eight-year extension that is expected to bump his cap hit up to $8.25 million in 2019-20.
Karlsson is obviously in line for a mega-deal of his own at some point, either in the form of an extension before the summer of 2019, or as an unrestricted free agent.
All of these players' contracts will only serve to strengthen Doughty's case, and his camp might be wise to wait out the Karlsson situation to see what the Ottawa Senators star gets, whether it be with them or a new team that acquires him.
If Karlsson gets traded to a team with oodles of cap space like the Golden Knights and subsequently cashes in at $10 million to $11 million or more, Doughty's gap-toothed grin will only get wider, because that would obviously set a new market standard and he could then argue he's comparable to Karlsson and therefore deserves the same, if not more.
Doughty could also decide it's not worth waiting around for the Karlsson situation to be resolved. Even if he does that, he's still likely to command a contract that's larger than Subban's nearly four-year-old agreement.
The resume
While the Kings' 2012 and 2014 championships might not be incredibly relevant to the present, and while claiming the Stanley Cup is obviously a team effort, Doughty's two rings still put him ahead of the aforementioned comparables in the winning department.
More importantly, though, his immense individual impact is inarguable.
Doughty led all NHL skaters in ice time this season while logging 2,200:31 overall (no one even had 2,100) for an average of 26:50, and suiting up for all 82 regular-season games.
The ice-time figures were actually his lowest since 2013-14, but at age 28, there's no reason for concern, especially considering his elite offensive production.
Doughty notched career highs in assists (50) and points (60) in 2017-18, and those totals were especially impressive considering the Kings ranked 16th in the league with 2.89 goals per game.
He drove possession with a 53.2 percent even-strength Corsi For percentage this season, his lowest since 2009-10, but he has hit 50 percent or greater in all of his 10 NHL campaigns.
Doughty won the Norris Trophy as the league's best defenseman in 2016, and he was also a finalist for the award in 2010, 2015, and 2018.
Will the King stay a King?
There's also the matter of whether he opts to test the free-agent market a year from now.
He has said he wants to remain with the Kings, and for what it's worth, the club's president, Luc Robitaille, said he's confident Doughty will.
The rearguard has spent his entire career in L.A., and this contract might be his last.
Another rather important matter will be how the Kings manage to squeeze Doughty in under next year's cap. The Kovalchuk signing put them within about $3 million of the cap ceiling for the upcoming season without much scheduled to come off the books next summer.
At least one key piece or declining veteran up front may have to be shipped out to accommodate a new contract for Doughty, so it will be interesting to see if the Kings make any pre-emptive moves before July 1, or if they use their summer cap flexibility (when there is no ceiling, for all intents and purposes) to figure it out after getting Doughty's signature on the dotted line.
No matter how they approach it, retaining Doughty as soon as they're able to is going to be their top priority.
The verdict
Regardless of how it all unfolds, an eight-year deal with an average annual value in the neighborhood of $10 million wouldn't be too far-fetched.
Based on the deals his contemporaries are getting and likely will get before next season is over, he's well positioned to exceed that.