Santa's naughty and nice list for NHL bettors
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Santa Claus is coming to town. He's making a list and checking it twice, and going to find out who's naughty or nice.
A simple glance at the standings doesn't always tell the whole story of which NHL teams have been kind to bettors this season, and which clubs have been naughty.
A few teams can expect to be spoiled on Christmas morning, while Santa will forgo visiting others altogether.
Nice list
New York Islanders
Barry Trotz is the closest thing to Santa Claus in the NHL. He's followed up an incredibly successful first season as head coach of the Islanders with an even more impressive one, starting the year 22-8-2. New York has been the most profitable team to bet on this season, returning $1,117 to the $100 bettor. There's no situation in which the Isles haven't been profitable: They've posted a 15-5 record as favorites and won seven of 10 as 'dogs.
In addition to turning a healthy profit on a night-to-night basis, the Islanders are rewarding bettors who backed them before the start of the season. They're set to comfortably surpass their 91.5 point total and should be a virtual lock for the playoffs after being even money to clinch.
Forward Brock Nelson gets an extra-special present this Christmas, too, after scoring three overtime goals.
Colorado Avalanche
A hair behind the Islanders, the Avalanche have been the league's second-most profitable team.
The darlings of the Western Conference have been a consistently safe bet. With an average line this season of -109, oddsmakers aren't overvaluing Colorado either. The Avs are 10-4 as favorites (+$425) and 11-8 as 'dogs (+$571). The fact they've been underdogs more than favorites shows there's been value in backing them through the first three months of the season.
After closing at 7-2 to win the Central Division on Oct. 1, the Avalanche are now 3-2 to claim top spot ahead of the Blues. They currently trail St. Louis by three points (albeit with two fewer games played).
Washington Capitals
Your Christmas would be paid for if you'd picked the right spots to bet the Capitals. They've been a cash cow as underdogs, posting a 7-1 record for a profit of $683. To a lesser extent, the Caps have also returned a profit as favorites, and there's another gift that keeps on giving: Overs are 12-4 in games played in Washington this year.
The Caps are also rewarding futures-market bettors. They could play below .500 hockey the rest of the way and still clear their point total, and they're 2-5 to win the Metro Division after closing at 7-2 on October 1.
Naughty list
Tampa Bay Lightning
Has there been a more frustrating team to back this season than the Lightning? I've lost count of how many times someone's told me, "They're too talented not to turn it around."
The average Tampa Bay line so far this season has been minus-172. That's the highest line average in the NHL, a full five points ahead of the Bruins and 19 over the third-worst Golden Knights. This is an overvalued team that was barely above .500 a week ago. Obviously, people are betting the Lightning enough that their record and performance don't matter for books, and that's a scary thought.
The Bolts have been 'dogs just twice all season, beating the Leafs at +100 and losing to the Capitals at +109. They've been favorites of -200 or more a staggering 10 times and are just 5-5 in those games, sinking your bankroll if you mindlessly indulged.
The Lightning would have to post a 36-14 record the rest of the way in order to go over their preseason point total. To cash tickets for anyone who backed them at -1100 to make the playoffs before the season started, Tampa will seriously need to turn things around.
New Jersey Devils
If you tend to be sucked in by preseason hype, then it's fair to assume you've been burned by the Devils this year in more ways than one.
Though they were dubbed winners of the offseason, that's about the only win they've managed. They've been the least profitable team to be on all year - if you bet a cool hundy on every New Jersey game this season, you'd have lost $1,194 already.
The Devils are 3-9 as favorites and 7-13 as 'dogs. They were 6-1 to win the division at the start of the season (shorter odds than the Islanders) and -110 to make the playoffs. In order to go over their projected point total, they need to finish the year 33-17 - no easy feat given that they just traded their best player.
Nashville Predators
If betting favorites is your thing, the Predators are not your favorites. Among Western Conference teams, only the Golden Knights have been favored more often than Nashville, which is 11-14 when laying juice. Betting $100 on every one of those games would have drained $1,254 from your bankroll already. That's the worst return on investment of any NHL team as favorites this season.
The Predators have somewhat made up for it by going 5-1 as 'dogs, which is why they're lower on the naughty list, but bear these numbers in mind. Oddsmakers can't figure out this Nashville team, so keep taking advantage until they do.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.