2020 Winter Classic betting preview
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Nothing says outdoor hockey quite like Dallas, am I right? And when you think of Cotton Bowl Stadium, your mind obviously goes straight to the National Hockey League, not the Red River Rivalry.
On New Year's Day 2020, the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators will meet in the NHL's annual outdoor special. Here's everything you need to know about the game from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The Stars opened as slight favorites at -120, with the Predators sitting at -105. Nashville is 6-2 straight up (SU) as underdogs this season, while Dallas is 2-5 SU as favorites between -110 and -125. A total of 5.5 is expected.
Betting breakdown
First and foremost, this will be the southernmost outdoor game in North American hockey history. Of the over 100 outdoor contests previously held in North America, only five have taken place south of the 39th degree of latitude - yes, we're getting technical.
| DATE | LOCATION | LEAGUE | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2017 | Bakersfield (Calif.) | AHL | Condors 3-2 Reign |
| January 2017 | St. Louis | NHL | Blues 4-1 Blackhawks |
| December 2015 | Sacramento | AHL | Heat 3-2 Condors |
| February 2015 | Santa Clara (Calif.) | NHL | Sharks 1-2 Kings |
| January 2014 | Los Angeles | NHL | Kings 0-3 Ducks |
Dallas has an average daily high temperature of 55 degrees Fahrenheit in January, similar to that of Bakersfield, Sacramento, and Santa Clara. Warmer climates result in softer ice surfaces, which drastically impact game totals. All five matchups listed above finished under 5.5 goals.
Those conditions happen to be right in line with the type of hockey the Stars prefer to play. Dallas is 25-12-2 (67.6%) to the under this season, the highest percentage of any NHL team. The Stars are also the most profitable club to the under on home ice, posting a 16-5 record.
However, the Predators are the most profitable team to the over on the road, with a 13-4 mark in that regard, and the last six regular-season meetings between these clubs in Dallas have gone over the total. It'll be a true clash of styles when these two meet at Cotton Bowl Stadium.
Nashville has won three of its last four regular-season games in Dallas, though the Predators lost two of their three trips to Texas in the playoffs last season.
X-factor
Ice quality will be a significant determining factor in how this game plays out. The warmer the weather, the softer the ice will be, leading to slower play and less offense. That plays right into the Stars' strengths.
Pick
Under 5.5 goals
It's hard to imagine the conditions in Dallas being conducive to a fast-paced hockey game. The soft ice will mitigate the high tempo the Predators typically like to employ and result in a low-scoring affair. Roll with the under, and parlay it with a Dallas win, if you're looking to start 2020 out with a bang.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.