NHL Monday betting preview: Panthers aim for first win in Toronto since 2016

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I don't know about you, but I always consider the Monday after the Super Bowl to be the day the NHL really heats up.

With a little over a third of the regular season left to play, teams generally have a good idea of their playoff prospects and can gauge whether to buy or sell at the rapidly approaching trade deadline.

As the regular season heats up, let's do the same.

GOATs and scapegoats

That's more like it, Brian Elliott. After shockingly shutting out the Pittsburgh Penguins a couple weeks ago, he reverted to his old ways against the Pens on Friday, allowing four goals on 20 shots to help us cash our best bet of over six goals.

Alex Tuch wasn't nearly as kind. The Carolina Hurricanes battled back from 3-1 down to tie the Vegas Golden Knights with just a few minutes left in the third period. We had hope, but boy, was it short-lived. Tuch potted the winner just over a minute later and our Canes bet was officially dead. We didn't even get treated to overtime.

Monday bets

Dallas Stars/New York Rangers under 5.5 (-105)

Not too long ago, the Rangers couldn't stop scoring. Overs were cashing at an impressive rate and there was never a shortage of excitement on Broadway. Well, the goals have since dried up. The Rangers have scored 11 in their last five games while allowing just 10. The Stars, meanwhile, have allowed two or fewer goals in six of their last seven road games and are on a 5-1 run to the under away from Dallas. They also haven't scored more than three goals in any of their last nine games. All signs point to a tight, low-scoring affair at Madison Square Garden.

Best bet

Florida Panthers' team total over 2.5 (-130)

Last time these teams met, we were all in on the over. We had the game over 6.5 goals, the Panthers' team total over 3.5, the Toronto Maple Leafs' team total over 3.5, and the first period over 1.5 goals. Every single one of those bets was a winner in an 8-4 Panthers victory. Let's go back to the well.

There's every reason to suggest the over is the play again here. Five of the last six meetings between these teams have gone over (average of 8.2 goals), the Panthers allowed 17 goals in their last three games in Toronto, six of Florida's last eight games have gone over, and seven of Toronto's last nine have gone over.

I'm going to take a slightly different approach, though, because the Leafs have been struggling a bit on home ice, scoring just five goals in their last three games at Scotiabank Arena. Meanwhile, the Panthers aren't having any trouble scoring, with at least four goals in six of their last seven games and four of their last five on the road. They should have no problem potting three against a leaky Toronto defense, and I'll also be on their team total over 3.5 (+180).

Trend of the night

The Panthers have lost seven straight games in Toronto, all in regulation.

The Leafs are priced quite high at -170, but you can get them at -120 to win in regulation or at +140 on the puck line (-1.5 goals). I'm not buying into this trend as much and will personally be laying off the Leafs. At the rate goals could be going in, this game could be wildly unpredictable.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.