NHL playoffs betting preview: Styles clash as Maple Leafs face Blue Jackets

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The Toronto Maple Leafs might be relieved to be playing a series against a team other than the Boston Bruins, but a healthy Columbus Blue Jackets squad poses a legitimate threat to Toronto's playoff chances.

After orchestrating a shock sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of last year's playoffs, can John Tortorella's Blue Jackets make waves once again?

The case for Toronto

Few teams are as prolific as the Maple Leafs, who were third this season in goals per game, fourth in expected goals for per 60 minutes, and second in scoring chances for per 60 minutes. There's no shortage of talent up front for a squad capable of running opposing teams out of the building. Auston Matthews is the best forward in this series, while running mates Mitch Marner and John Tavares aren't far behind. The Blue Jackets don't have much to offer in terms of elite forward talent, which will greatly ease the pressure on a Toronto defense that isn't without its shortcomings.

Much will be made of the matchup between the dynamic Maple Leafs forwards and Columbus' lights-out goaltending duo, but how sold are we after such a small sample? Elvis Merzlikins had a better save percentage in the NHL this season than he did in each of his last five years in the Swiss National League, while Joonas Korpisalo was having his best statistical campaign since 2015-16. It's entirely possible the duo caught lightning in a bottle this season. If that is the case, Toronto has all the artillery it needs to expose them.

How large is Columbus' perceived goaltending edge in this series? Frederik Andersen didn't have a convincing regular season, but he was heating up before league suspended play, posting a .931 save percentage in his final seven starts. The Maple Leafs also have the added benefit of playing this entire series on home ice, and while the absence of fans somewhat mitigates the overall impact, the familiarity of playing at Scotiabank Arena could prove invaluable in such an unusual postseason.

The case for Columbus

One has to think some hearts in Toronto sank when this matchup was announced. The Maple Leafs struggle mightily against teams that get pucks deep into the offensive zone and grind down low along the boards, which is exactly how Columbus attacks. It's a Tortorella trademark, and the coach's fingerprints are all over this team. The Blue Jackets roll four forward lines, block shots, bang bodies, and wear teams down - essentially a nightmare scenario for Toronto.

If there's any team capable of stifling the Leafs' high-powered attack, it's Columbus. Thanks to a formidable defense led by the shutdown pairing of Seth Jones and Zach Werenski, as well as a terrific goaltending duo, the Blue Jackets posted the league's lowest expected goals against rate and allowed the second-fewest high-danger chances this season. They led the league in five-on-five save percentage and ranked eighth in points percentage - significantly ahead of Toronto in that regard - before Jones suffered an injury in February.

It's hard to overstate the importance of a healthy Jones for the Blue Jackets, who posted a miserable 1-5-5 record in his absence. He's not the only returnee, either. Forwards Cam Atkinson, Alexandre Texier, Oliver Bjorkstrand - who was having a breakout season - and possibly Josh Anderson will all be in the lineup to bolster the attack.

Scoring wasn't a forte for this Columbus team during the regular season, but it boasts a deep group of forwards when healthy. The Blue Jackets were also plagued by an unlucky 7.92 shooting percentage this season - 29th in the NHL. For reference, the league average is around 9.5%, and Columbus ranked 10th in the league with a 9.88% mark last year. That suggests positive regression is coming. An imminent uptick in scoring combined with their lights-out defensive play could have the Blue Jackets playing deep into September.

The pick

Columbus Blue Jackets (+135)

This pick might be different if the odds for this series were sitting at -110/-110. But sportsbooks will never be lacking in Maple Leafs support, and that's baked into this price. Despite the clash in styles, a pick'em would be appropriate given how evenly matched these teams are; they finished level on 81 points through 70 games. But the Blue Jackets' pace before injuries hindered them, their significant defensive edge, and their ability to wear the Maple Leafs down - Toronto still hasn't proven it can win a grind-it-out type of game - make them too attractive to pass up at this price.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.