NHL playoff picks: Habs, Blues to bid farewell to the bubble

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Thursday was a 1-1 night for us, but it felt a lot bigger as we cashed in a couple big series bets on the Dallas Stars.

Round 1 of the NHL playoffs is winding down, so let's finish strong.

Philadelphia Flyers (-140) @ Montreal Canadiens (+110)

The only real difference between Game 2 and Game 5 of this series was Jesperi Kotkaniemi's major penalty. Instead of a 5-0 win, the Canadiens settled for 5-3, with the Flyers scoring three times on the power play (twice on Kotkaniemi's major). But, in reality, it was yet another game in which Philadelphia was clearly second-best, failing to generate anything at five-on-five.

The Flyers came out flat after a Game 1 win, and then again in Game 5 with a 3-1 stranglehold on the series. However, they responded appropriately to a Game 2 battering and will do the same here.

Montreal will find it tough to match the intensity it carried throughout Game 5, especially without Brendan Gallagher. He's a nightmare for the opposing team - even when he's not playing well - with his relentlessness on the puck and Pitbull mentality on the forecheck. This group is a lot easier to face without him.

The Habs aren't especially great at finishing their chances, and now they have to produce without their leading scorer against Carter Hart, who is as mentally tough as a 22-year-old goaltender can be - he responded to being pulled in Game 2 with back-to-back shutouts. The Canadiens are 2-12 this season when scoring five or more goals in their previous game, and unlucky No. 13 will be the one that ends their campaign.

Pick: Flyers (-140)

St. Louis Blues (-135) @ Vancouver Canucks (+115)

This is an incredibly tough series to cap. You can exhaust yourself by examining data and combing through the numbers, but there are so many variables that can undo all that work. Motivation is a big one - the Blues have looked deprived of it at times - and Jacob Markstrom is another. He's stolen a couple of games already in this series, just as he did against the Minnesota Wild.

The Blues were outstanding in their two "road" contests this series and should come out swinging in Game 6 with their backs against the wall, as they did in Game 3 and 4 after going down 2-0.

However, there's just something about this series - be it the bubble, a Cup hangover, or a hungry Canucks team - that scares me off the Blues at this price. Markstrom is in sensational form, Elias Pettersson deserves more recognition as one of the best players in the league, Bo Horvat is playing like a man against boys, and Vancouver is getting the sort of depth scoring it wasn't for most of the season. I can't pass up the Canucks at this price and will be on them again in Game 7 if they lose here.

Pick: Canucks (+115)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.