Ranking NHL teams by tiers: The November top 17

This is the second half of a two-part series ranking all 31 NHL teams by tiers for the 2020-21 season. Part 1, which addresses the bottom 14 teams, was published Monday.

This is an annual exercise conducted after the dust has settled on the draft and free agency. The tiers are based on projections for the 2020-21 season only, not the long-term trajectories of each franchise. Lastly, keep in mind the timing. We're all awaiting word on the 2020-21 NHL season, which means there's runway for teams before rosters need to be finalized.

Moderately dangerous (4th tier)

Possible playoff teams unlikely to go on deep run

Calgary Flames

"Solid" is the word that comes to mind regarding the 2020-21 Flames. They're a high-floor team (make the playoffs, probably?) whose ceiling is limited (win a round or two, at best?). Landing stud goalie Jacob Markstrom in free agency was massive; he'll be a huge help over the short and long terms. Otherwise, the roster is unexceptional: above-average top-six forwards, above-average top-four defense, decent but unspectacular depth at both positions. The playoff history of this team during Johnny Gaudreau's six-year tenure (two total series wins) doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. The Flames fit - solidly - into the fourth tier.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Anybody with half a hockey brain could have guessed what Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen would attempt to do this offseason: Find. More. Goals. The John Tortorella-coached squad is routinely one of the top defensive outfits in the NHL, but it finished last season tied for 27th in team offense. Acquiring free-wheeling playmaker Max Domi should help the cause. Domi will find a home down the middle behind young star Pierre-Luc Dubois - who's currently unsigned - while 37-year-old former Minnesota Wild captain Mikko Koivu, added on a cheap one-year deal, will fill the third-line center role.

Many wonder if Kekalainen has more maneuvers up his sleeve, seeing as Gustav Nyquist is scheduled to miss a big chunk of 2020-21 because of shoulder surgery. Perhaps the Blue Jackets put the full-court press on free-agent winger Mike Hoffman to supplement the attack. They need finishers. Some food for thought: What should we expect from the Joonas Korpisalo-Elvis Merzlikins goalie duo?

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks have taken a small step in the wrong direction. After a breakout year filled with thrilling storylines and two playoff series wins, their starting goalie (Markstrom), a top-six winger (Tyler Toffoli), and two everyday defensemen (Chris Tanev, Troy Stecher) left via free agency. Nate Schmidt and Braden Holtby arrived to more or less replace Tanev and Markstrom. Looking strictly through a 2020-21 lens, the Canucks are worse - albeit by a small margin.

Assuming the upward trajectory continues for Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, and Quinn Hughes, the end product might actually look pretty close to the 2019-20 Canucks: a team very much in the hunt for a playoff spot. That description surely isn't what Vancouver fans hoped for following a transformative and exciting season, but it is the reality of the situation.

Montreal Canadiens

It's easy to like the Canadiens' offseason. Aside from the term of the contract handed out to power forward Josh Anderson, all of GM Marc Bergevin's transactions could be filed under "astute." Anderson, exchanged for Domi in a swap of two 20-something forwards, and Toffoli, a medium-sized free-agent splash, shore up the top six. Former Hurricane Joel Edmundson and Russian prospect Alexander Romanov add some oomph to the back end. Jake Allen, acquired via trade from the Blues, is an excellent backup for Carey Price.

The flurry of activity comes after a confidence-building showing in the bubbled postseason, where youngsters Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi impressed. The Habs are suddenly in the mix for the best team in Canada. They are, unquestionably, the most fascinating of those seven clubs.

New York Islanders

In the Barry Trotz-Lou Lamoriello era, the Islanders have made the playoffs both years and won four series, earning a trip to the conference finals in the 24-team bubbled postseason. There's little reason to expect anything different in 2020-21. Trotz's style of play - keep opponents' shots to the outside, cycle the hell out of the puck in the offensive zone - perfectly suits the mentality of Lamoriello's stable of mostly blue-collar players. Losing top-four defenseman Devon Toews in a salary-dump trade stings, but it's not the end of the world. Meanwhile, star center Mat Barzal, a potential offer-sheet target, will eventually re-sign. The train keeps chugging in New York.

Philadelphia Flyers

As usual, the Flyers are hard to nail down. Based on last year's success in the regular season and their current roster, it wouldn't be crazy to suggest they're a top 10 team in the NHL. But Philadelphia is definitely in the bottom half of that list, perhaps even 10th, which means its chances of winning a Cup aren't overly high.

It feels like this team is one significant piece - even two - away from jumping from the fourth tier to the third, though that upgrade could still happen this offseason or at the trade deadline. Not helping matters: veteran defenseman Matt Niskanen's surprising retirement. GM Chuck Fletcher picked up Erik Gustafsson in response, but the offensively inclined blue-liner probably doesn't fully compensate for the loss of Niskanen.

Edmonton Oilers

It's going to come together for the Oilers someday … right? 2020-21 will be Connor McDavid's sixth year in the NHL, and his team - beyond superstar teammate Leon Draisaitl and a few other pieces - is once again middling. So once again, it's difficult to envision a deep playoff run for Edmonton, barring some miraculous performances from McDavid and Draisaitl. Top-pairing defenseman Oscar Klefbom is expected to miss most, if not all, of next season because of his chronic shoulder injury.

GM Ken Holland reeled in fresh faces Kyle Turris, Dominik Kahun, and Tyson Barrie on short-term deals. Settling for a Mikko Koskinen-Mike Smith duo in net, however, is a tough pill to swallow for the fan base.

Scary at full potential (3rd tier)

Cup win not out of question, though a lot must fall into place

Pittsburgh Penguins

God bless Jim Rutherford. No GM provides fodder for fans and media as consistently as Rutherford, who obtained forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Colton Sceviour, Mark Jankowski, and Evan Rodrigues and defensemen Michael Matheson and Cody Ceci this offseason. Gone are Matt Murray, Patric Hornqvist, Patrick Marleau, Dominik Simon, Justin Schultz, and Jack Johnson. From an aggregate talent standpoint, it's probably a wash.

That's been the Penguins' approach for a few years: Squeeze every last ounce out of the tail end of the Sidney Crosby-Evgeni Malkin era by trying out new peripheral pieces every season. This team will make the playoffs for the 15th straight time. If 2019-20 All-Star Tristan Jarry can hold down the fort as the No. 1 goalie, look out. The long offseason will benefit Crosby, 33, Malkin, 34, and running mate Kris Letang, 33, while the early exit from the bubble should add extra fuel to the fire.

Toronto Maple Leafs

GM Kyle Dubas made his team wiser, nastier, and bigger by bringing in Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds, and Zach Bogosian this offseason. According to Dubas' critics, these moves show growth because the Leafs have been "too easy to play against" for the past few years. Toronto also signed longtime Flames defenseman T.J. Brodie, who undoubtedly upgrades the blue line. Meanwhile, homegrown wingers Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson were shipped out of town while Joey Anderson, Jimmy Vesey, and Travis Boyd were welcomed into the fold.

The revamped depth chart isn't markedly better or worse - it's just a little different. Make no mistake, the Auston Matthews-led crew will win plenty of regular-season games in 2020-21. The success or failure of this group ultimately depends on its performance in the playoffs, which is why Toronto earns a third-tier spot in these rankings. The Maple Leafs have consistently been better on paper than in the games. Time to flip the script.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues would have landed in the second tier if they had re-signed Alex Pietrangelo, weren't in a bind up front with Vladimir Tarasenko out until at least February after his third shoulder surgery in as many years, and had some semblance of salary-cap flexibility. They're a deep, experienced hockey team only two seasons removed from winning the Cup, but they're in a few pickles. The optimistic spin: Torey Krug's presence lessens the Pietrangelo hit and a breakout season from Robert Thomas could go a long way in helping to replace Tarasenko's production. In terms of projecting regular season and playoff success, St. Louis looks to be among the best of this tier.

Boston Bruins

It feels like 2020-21 could be the beginning of the end for this iteration of the Bruins. Krug is gone, Zdeno Chara might retire, Tuukka Rask and David Krejci are both entering the final year of their contracts, and Patrice Bergeron turned 35 in July. That said, the 2019-20 Presidents' Trophy winner is still a force to be reckoned with. Signing play-driving forward Craig Smith at $3.1 million per season for three years ranks as one of the smartest moves of the offseason. Although Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are both coming off surgeries, they're world-class players. Rask remains an upper-echelon goalie, and Charlie McAvoy is underrated and only 22. So this team can't be counted out of Cup contention. Not yet, anyway.

Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes have been relatively inactive this offseason - and that's totally fine because Carolina has been knocking on the door for a while. The team controls the flow of play most nights and quietly boasts deep groups at forward and on defense. As for star power, Dougie Hamilton and Jaccob Slavin are two of the best blue-liners in the game; Sebastian Aho is an elite top-line center; and Andrei Svechnikov, who will surely score 50 goals one day, is due to level up again. Jordan Staal and Vincent Trocheck fill out the second and third center roles nicely, while Jesper Fast, who signed a three-year deal as a free agent, is a reasonable replacement for retiring longtime Cane Justin Williams.

The roster's only true weakness is in goal; barring a trade, Petr Mrazek and James Reimer will share the workload. If this club was located in Canada and not the Sun Belt, it'd be due for more buzz. The Hurricanes are a bit of a sleeping giant in the Eastern Conference.

Washington Capitals

The Capitals are well-known at this point. Most of the long-term core is locked up for a few more years and GM Brian MacLellan hasn't performed any major surgery around the edges this offseason. Sure, Henrik Lundqvist arriving as the wily backup to Ilya Samsonov is cool, and Justin Schultz subbing in for Radko Gudas on the back end is interesting. Brenden Dillon's extension is team-friendly. But that's it, in part because the 2018 Cup champions have so much money tied up in their top guys.

The sticky thing about Washington is its lackluster showing in the bubbled postseason, and now Alex Ovechkin - one of the lone playoff standouts - is in the final season of his 13-year deal. Calling 2020-21 a crossroads season might be a tad dramatic, but the coming campaign does have a certain urgency. Well-respected coach Peter Laviolette provides a fresh voice behind the bench, so there should be equal amounts of motivation and pressure.

Dallas Stars

The Stars are running back the same crew that captured the Western Conference title, though top center Tyler Seguin and starting goalie Ben Bishop will be sidelined until late March or early April as they recover from offseason surgeries. Let's be clear: Dallas' players, along with GM Jim Nill and head coach Rick Bowness, deserve full marks for what they accomplished in the bubbled postseason. Hit by the injury bug, they gutted out 14 playoff wins before running out of gas against Tampa Bay. Nobody can take away those accomplishments. But let's be clear again: It was a perfect storm for the Stars. They're a very good NHL team, but not a great one, so repeating or improving on their playoff feats is a daunting task in 2020-21.

Secondary Cup favorite (2nd tier)

Elite, battle-tested team with a few minor concerns

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights landed the biggest fish in free agency by inking Pietrangelo to a seven-year, $61.6-million deal. He's an elite blue-liner fresh off a Norris Trophy-caliber season. However, having to ship out top-four defenseman Schmidt and top-six center Paul Stastny to make room for Pietrangelo was suboptimal, and that's fundamentally why Vegas landed in its own tier below Tampa and Colorado.

Coach Pete DeBoer doesn't have a proven second-line center right now, though there is a chance rookie Cody Glass slides into that role. Shea Theodore and Marc-Andre Fleury are other 2020-21 X-factors. How much growth is left in Theodore, the breakout star of the bubbled postseason? How will Fleury perform as the 1B goalie to 1A Robin Lehner? Vegas is one of those rare teams constructed to win both in the regular season and the playoffs, and management is clearly all-in.

Heavy Cup favorites (1st tier)

Star-studded, deep - simply a cut above the rest

Colorado Avalanche

GM Joe Sakic has been inching toward this moment since he was hired in 2014. Through masterful drafting, developing, and acquiring, the Nathan MacKinnon Avalanche have evolved into legitimate Stanley Cup favorites. Like the Lightning, Colorado's roster offers a fantastic mix of high-end talent (MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar) and dependable depth (Nazem Kadri, Brandon Saad, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard, etc.). The only real question mark for the Avs is in the crease, where Philipp Grubauer returns as the starter. But it could end up a moot point since Colorado possesses the firepower to dominate in every other facet of the game most nights.

Tampa Bay Lightning

It's tempting to look at the Lightning's salary-cap conundrum and conclude the reigning champions will regress in 2020-21. Could one or two of Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, and Ondrej Palat be absent from coach Jon Cooper's lineup card on opening night? It sure seems likely given the crunch that GM Julien BriseBois is dealing with. But zoom out for a moment and it's reasonable to suggest this juggernaut can withstand a notable roster hit; the Lightning did win the Cup with Steven Stamkos sidelined for all but five playoff shifts. Tampa Bay is built to repeat, with any value lost in the offseason made up by improvements from Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak, four players in their early 20s who still have plenty of room to grow.

John Matisz is theScore's national hockey writer.