NHL Thursday betting preview: Finding value in a busy slate
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We took home some decent profit with Tuesday's picks, finishing 2-1. After a quiet day off Wednesday, we're back at it with another monster NHL slate.
Here are my favorite bets on the board.
Penguins (+110) @ Bruins (-130)
We were on the Bruins in this game Tuesday and got to celebrate an overtime win, but I'm changing my tune this time around. The expectation is the Penguins turn to Casey DeSmith while Boston pivots to Jaroslav Halak, which is a better goaltending matchup for Pittsburgh.
Tuesday's contest was a coin flip. The expected goal share was essentially dead even, sitting at 1.52-1.51 in favor of Pittsburgh at five-on-five and 2.42-2.39 in Boston's favor at all strengths. The Bruins won late in overtime, but the Penguins had a number of chances to win in the extra frame, including a missed three-on-none.
The Penguins have been very good at making adjustments this season when facing the same team for the second consecutive game. We also get a better goaltending matchup and plus money in what essentially boils down to a 50-50 game. There's value with Pittsburgh at +100 or greater.
Pick: Penguins (+110)
Panthers (-105) @ Blue Jackets (-115)
On one hand, the Blue Jackets were unlucky not to win Tuesday's game, with the Panthers scoring the tying goal with three seconds left. On the other hand, they were lucky to even come out with a point. Florida controlled a remarkable 70.08% share of the expected goals (xGF%) at five-on-five.
We've seen this before from the Blue Jackets, who've made a habit of being outplayed in the first contest of a two-game set before bouncing back impressively in the second.
| Opponent | xGF% (Game 1) | xGF% (Game 2) |
|---|---|---|
| Predators | 46.53% | 64.05% |
| Red Wings | 36.95% | 53.83% |
| Lightning | 33.33% | 56.48% |
The Panthers have played well this year, but given the small sample size, this feels like a good sell-high spot. The Blue Jackets have a proven ability to perform better in the second half of back-to-backs, and we get them at a bargain here with what feels like an overreaction to Tuesday's loss.
Pick: Blue Jackets (-115)
Maple Leafs (-130) @ Oilers (+110)
It's been a curious start to the season for the Maple Leafs, who don't quite look like their former selves. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as they've been playing strong defensive hockey, but it has come at the expense of their typically high-end offensive production.
They've been below average at generating offense at five-on-five, relying instead on a power play that's converting at an absurd 41.7% clip - second-best in the NHL. That mark is due for serious regression, and with a downgrade to their special teams, their pedestrian five-on-five play will be amplified.
The Leafs were significantly outplayed at five-on-five by the Oilers in their two meetings in Toronto, controlling just 38% and 41.79% of the expected goal share. It was a similar story in both wins over the Flames. Regression looms for a Toronto team that's managed to steal positive results from negative ratios.
Pick: Oilers (+110)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.