Stanley Cup odds update: Teams to buy, sell in the futures market

With the Dallas Stars playing their 28th game on Sunday, every team has now begun the second half of the NHL season.

That makes this as good a time as any to evaluate the latest Stanley Cup oddsboard, taking what we know from the first half of the campaign and using it to gauge which teams are worth backing, and which need to be avoided at the current price.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Buy

Colorado Avalanche (+550)

It's a short price, but is it short enough? In reality, +550 is buying low on the Avalanche, as we won't see a better number for the rest of this season. Colorado has climbed back within three points of the Golden Knights for the division lead after seven straight wins, and a healthy Cale Makar has finally returned to the Avalanche's lineup.

But it's not just that the Avalanche are winning, it's how they're winning. They're the league's runaway leaders in both xGF% (59.77%) and CF% (59.99%) at five-on-five, and the team is only just hitting its stride. Since March 3, Colorado has posted an otherworldly xGF% of 69.09% at five-on-five. The next-best mark over that span is the Islanders' 57.94%.

Carolina Hurricanes (+1000)

Despite the Lightning's torrid pace, the Hurricanes remain neck-and-neck in the Central Division race. Carolina has impressively managed to keep up despite significant injury woes. Starting goalie Petr Mrazek has played just four games, Teuvo Teravainen has missed more than half the season, and Vincent Trocheck has been on the shelf for the last two weeks.

The Hurricanes rank third in the NHL in xGF% and CF% at five-on-five, and they boast both the league's top power-play unit and a top-10 penalty kill. When fully healthy, this roster is every bit as good as the Lightning, but you're getting it at more than double the price.

Dallas Stars (+3200)

As bad as things have looked for the Stars, there's hope below the surface. They currently sit seventh in the Central, but are fifth on points percentage and still well-positioned to claim the division's final playoff spot. COVID-19 issues hampered them to begin the season, and an injury-ravaged team has also dealt with a handful of weather-related postponements.

Despite the adversity, the underlying numbers are kind to Dallas, a top-10 club in both expected goals and Corsi percentage, and a top-five squad over the past month. Positive regression is expected here.

The road to the Stanley Cup won't be easy, but this is a deep and experienced group that will be getting Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop back over the next few weeks.

Sell

Toronto Maple Leafs (+700)

There's a lot to like about this Leafs roster and the team's to come out of the North Division, but this call boils down to goaltending. Frederik Andersen looks finished, and that's been true for some time now. That puts a lot of pressure on Jack Campbell to rescue Toronto. Could he be the guy? Sure. Should you pay such a short price to find out? Absolutely not.

Looking elsewhere at the goaltending in the North Division sparks plenty of concern about the Leafs heading into the playoffs. Will Connor Hellebuyck stonewall them once more? What about the born-again Mike Smith?

And if Toronto does escape the North, the gauntlet of teams waiting for it on the other side is awfully intimidating. The Leafs' concerns in goal are legitimate and aren't something the league's other top teams need to navigate. Steer clear of them at this short price.

Philadelphia Flyers (+1800)

The same thinking applies to the Flyers, except the concerns run deeper. While Toronto is struggling to get saves, the team is playing excellent hockey overall. But that's not the case for Philadelphia. The Flyers' goaltending is disastrous, and they're also below average at five-on-five and rank in the bottom third on special teams.

The Leafs are a borderline lock to make the playoffs too, while the Flyers will likely miss the postseason. There isn't an ounce of logic that goes into backing Philly at 18-1 when you can get its Eastern Division foes the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins at the same or better prices - you know, teams that will actually make the playoffs.

St. Louis Blues (+1800)

The Blues are only this high up the oddsboard because they won the Stanley Cup two years ago. If you changed their name and jerseys, it would be hard to differentiate them from teams like the Blackhawks or Predators based on the numbers. St. Louis' underlying metrics are really poor, even amid a soft schedule.

The Blues have played 26 of their 32 games this campaign against the Coyotes, Ducks, Kings, and Sharks, but their season is about to get a lot tougher. Of their remaining 24 games, 18 are against the Avalanche, Knights, and Wild. Given how poor the Blues' numbers have been, the increasing difficulty of their schedule, and Jordan Binnington's struggles, it's possible the Kings or Coyotes could beat St. Louis out for the West Division's final playoff spot.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, strongly believes in the power of the jinx, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.