2021 Central Division betting preview: Can anyone challenge the Avalanche?

Just one team - the Nashville Predators in 2017-18 and 2018-19 - has won the Central Division in consecutive seasons over the last 12 years. The parity has been unrivaled.

While the Colorado Avalanche are likely to buck that trend, there isn't much value in backing them to do so.

Today, we'll be exploring the best way to attack the Central Division futures market.

The favorites

The Avalanche (-340) have the shortest odds of any team in the NHL to win their division. Understandably so.

There is no Achilles heel with this team. Offensively, they're as good as anyone. Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog spearhead the attack - at even strength and on the power play - and there's no shortage of quality depth behind them.

Defensively, they're much more stout than they get credit for. Everyone knows about the production Cale Makar, Sam Girard, and Co. bring to the table. But their defense core can also defend with the best of them. The Avalanche actually allowed expected goals at a lesser rate than every team in the NHL at five-on-five. They really don't give up much.

When they do, they figure to be in good hands with Darcy Kuemper and a healthy Pavel Francouz. Each netminder owns a .925 save percentage at five-on-five over the last three years which, for perspective, puts them on par with annual Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck (.924 save percentage).

Unless this team suffers a multitude of injuries, they're winning the Central.

The rest

The Dallas Stars (+800) figure to be a strong team this season. They finished third in expected goals share a year ago despite an overwhelming amount of injuries. With better health and the addition of Ryan Suter to stabilize the top four on defense, they should win a lot of games. Enough to make the Avs sweat? Probably not.

The Minnesota Wild (+800) are likely to take at least a small step back. The Wild shot the lights out in 2021, leading the league in five-on-five shooting percentage and benefiting from the highest PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) in the NHL. They have talent on the roster, but probably not enough to sustain those kinds of numbers. Replacing Suter with Alex Goligoski is a step in the wrong direction, and the team's stable of high-end prospects probably needs at least another year before making an impact.

The St. Louis Blues (+1500) don't strike me as a team with a chance of knocking off the Avalanche. Only the Detroit Red Wings generated expected goals at a lesser rate than St. Louis last season. The Blues did their best to rectify that, bringing in the likes of Brandon Saad and Pavel Buchnevich to round out the top six. I don't know if Craig Berube is the coach to get the most out of those guys, though, and it's anyone's guess how much longer Vladimir Tarasenko sticks around. Their defense isn't as good as it gets credit for, either. On paper it looks fine, but they ranked 18th in expected goals against per 60 and 20th in high-danger chances against last season, and have no real upgrades. The only notable difference is they lost Vince Dunn to the Seattle Kraken.

The Winnipeg Jets (+1500) are an interesting side to consider. They have a potent offense and one of the league's best netminders. What's largely held them back in recent years is their blue line, which should be much better in 2021-22. Brenden Dillon is a rock-solid defensive defender and Nate Schmidt is only a year removed from playing at a borderline top-pairing level. They're not world-beaters, but they're quality pieces that significantly upgrade the top four.

The Chicago Blackhawks (+2500) are a better team than a year ago but the hill is much too large to climb. They're overrated on the betting market, as I recently explained. They just don't have much scoring depth and their overall team defense is not where it needs to be to compete in such a strong division.

Nashville (+6000) was only able to sneak into the playoffs last season despite all-world goaltending from Juuse Saros. There isn't much reason to believe they'll be better this year, especially with the departure of Ryan Ellis.

You don't need me to tell you the Arizona Coyotes (+10000) are a complete write-off. They lack high-end talent, depth, and their goaltending tandem might be the league's worst. Let's call a spade a spade. It's tank season for Arizona.

Best bet: Winnipeg Jets (+1500)

Let me preface this by saying, again, I fully expect the Avalanche to win the division. It would take an alarming string of injuries, suspensions, or unforeseen circumstances to prevent that from happening. But with the odds implying a 77.8% chance of winning the Central, there simply isn't much value.

That's why I'm going with the Jets. Led by Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Nik Ehlers, we know the offense is formidable. The Jets are also in great hands with Hellebuyck routinely stealing games in net. If the defense is better, as it should be, they have arguably the highest ceiling in the division outside of Colorado.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.